Europe's richest country with more money than UK and Spain combinedISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has revealed the significant economic losses caused by opposition-led protests, ARY News reported. Muhammad Aurangzeb held a press conference amid Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) planned march towards Islamabad. He highlighted the severe economic impact of such protests, emphasizing the need for political stability to safeguard the country’s economy. Addressing the media, he stated that the daily financial damage from opposition-led lockdowns and protests exceeds Rs190 billion. He explained that disruptions caused by protests hinder tax collection, obstruct businesses, and negatively impact exports. Additional expenses are also incurred for maintaining law and order during such protests. The minister highlighted that the IT and telecommunications sectors face separate economic losses, with their closure affecting social dynamics and the digital economy. According to a detailed report by the Ministry of Finance, protests result in a daily GDP loss of Rs 144 billion. Export reductions cost Rs 26 billion daily, while direct foreign investment declines lead to an additional Rs 3 billion loss. Aurangzeb added that provinces bear additional losses, including Rs 26 billion daily in the agricultural sector and over Rs 20 billion in the industrial sector. Read More: Musadik Malik accuses PTI leadership of ‘blocking’ founder’s release Earlier, Federal Minister for Petroleum Dr. Musadik Malik criticised Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) leadership, claiming they are seemingly disinterested in securing the release of their founder, Imran Khan. Speaking at a news conference, Musadik Malik emphasised that solving public issues is the government’s priority, highlighting that government measures have led to a reduction in inflation, and the stock market is at its highest level in history. He added that the nation must unite against extremism, mentioning that people from Parachinar are sitting on the roads with the bodies of their loved ones, yet there has been no sign of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur going to help them. Musadik Malik also criticised Ali Amin Gandapur for trying to attack Punjab and Islamabad, adding, “What happened to his Do-or-Die rally today? There are voices everywhere saying ‘Arrest me, take me in.’ Where are all the senior PTI leaders? No rallies are visible in Punjab, Lahore, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala.”
Every year, I’m asked to provide my “predictions” for the New Year. With the New Year now less than two weeks away, today is a perfect day to do that. So, without further ado, here are my five predictions for 2025. Prediction No. 1: Global Central Banks Set to Continue to Cut Key Interest Rates The European Central Bank (ECB) kicked off the December rate cuts last week, slashing its key interest rate by 0.25% for the fourth time this year. The reality is that the European economy is floundering, and the ECB only expects 1.1% annual GDP growth this year. That’s down from previous estimates of 1.3%. So, the ECB will need to continue loosening its monetary policy with more rate cuts in 2025 to protect economic growth in the European Union. A Bloomberg survey anticipates that the ECB will cut its key interest rate to 2% by June 2025. Key interest rates currently stand at 3%. So, if the ECB continues to cut rates by 0.25%, then four more rate cuts may be forthcoming. This is good news for the U.S. The fact is that a decline in European interest rates should trigger a big rally in U.S. Treasuries. This will, in turn, bring interest rates lower and encourage the Federal Reserve also to cut key interest rates. Remember, the Fed never fights market rates. The one problem, though, is inflation. Recent data reports showed that inflation on both the consumer and wholesale levels ticked up in November. As we discussed in Thursday’s Market 360 , this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and updated “dot plot” both signaled that the Fed was renewing its focus on inflation and shifting away from unemployment. Prediction No. 2: U.S. Remains Economic Growth Engine Global economic growth has tapped the brakes, especially with the recent chaos in Europe. To review, the two largest economies in Europe – Germany and France – are both on the verge of a recession, given a slowdown in manufacturing and services, as well as political unrest. Germany has an election scheduled for February, with a new chancellor anticipated. French President Macron’s party has a minority in Parliament and continues to be undermined by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party. If the chaos in Europe persists, don’t be surprised if the euro “breaks a buck” and reaches parity with the U.S. dollar. The ECB’s key interest rate cuts will also further undermine the euro in 2025. The good news is that we don’t have political chaos or recession fears in the U.S. – and as a result, I suspect the U.S. will remain the economic growth engine of the world. There are a few key reasons why the U.S. economy continues to expand... Now, it’s also important to note that one of Trump 2.0’s first agenda items is to end the manufacturing recession in the U.S. You may recall that manufacturing has been in a recession for 24 of the past 25 months, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). Once the manufacturing sector starts to grow again, 4% annual GDP growth is possible. Another agenda item is to end the senseless wars in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. If Trump 2.0 can do this, the world would benefit from a “peace dividend” like the one experienced when Bill Clinton was president. And if there is peace in the world, then 5% annual GDP growth is possible. Overall, if the U.S. is firing on all cylinders in 2025, then 4% to 5% annual GDP growth is a very real possibility. Prediction No. 3: Trump 2.0 Should Boost the Oil & Gas Industry Trump 2.0 is simply a “godsend” for the natural gas industry. When Trump takes office in January, the existing ban on federal lands is expected to be lifted by an executive order on his first day back in office. The Biden administration’s attempt to squelch liquified natural gas ( LNG ) expansion will be over. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) demand that all new natural gas turbine electricity plants “sequester” carbon dioxide will also be lifted, and that will cause a boom in new natural gas-fired electric plants. So, the U.S. will now be able to double its utility grid to better meet the rising demand for artificial intelligence data centers. With the resurgence in the natural gas industry, we will likely add more midstream companies and some new natural gas drillers to the Buy Lists. But we won’t make these additions until Trump 2.0’s “drill, baby, drill” identifies the biggest winners. Regarding oil, production should also increase under Trump 2.0. However, weak global demand due to sputtering economies in Europe and Asia will likely keep oil prices in check next year. I expect crude oil prices to range from $58 per barrel to $80 per barrel in 2025. Prediction No. 4: Earnings Set to Hit the Gas The overall earnings environment improved immensely in 2024, but 2025 will be even better. The fact is earnings momentum is anticipated to hit the gas in the New Year. Currently, FactSet projects that the S&P 500 will achieve fourth-quarter earnings of 11.8% on average and full-year 2024 earnings of 9.5% on average. And after that, earnings growth is expected to surge. The S&P 500 is expected to achieve 15% average earnings growth in 2025, with earnings momentum in each quarter of fiscal year 2025 set to exceed the S&P 500’s average earnings growth in all of 2024. So, we remain in a fundamentally focused stock market, and I’m especially excited about stocks with positive analyst earnings revisions, robust operating margin expansion and accelerating earnings and sales momentum. Prediction No. 5: The Third Stage of the AI Revolution Begins The first stage of AI development was all about model training. Companies like OpenAI needed to gather billions of data points and then run it all through increasingly large systems to create working large language models (LLMs). Model sizes have historically grown at an exponential rate to overcome diminishing rates of performance, and every LLM developer has been locked in an arms race to create the most data-intensive model. That’s why companies like NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) and Super Micro Computer Inc. ( SMCI ) – firms that specialize in providing the top-of-the-line computing power needed to train these ever-growing models. The second stage of the AI Revolution is software-focused firms using AI and/or delving into quantum computing to create remarkable innovations. These are the companies that push the envelope of what’s possible and upending their businesses along the way. The third stage of the AI Revolution is where we learn to work with LLMs... where we seek alternative methods to push AI further... and where the future pace of development will depend on human-and-machine ingenuity. The winners here will be the AI Appliers , the companies smart enough to apply imperfect AI technologies to an equally imperfect world. These are the firms that recognize AI’s limitations and create innovative solutions to overcome them. I expect the third stage will begin in 2025 – and my InvestorPlace colleagues Luke Lango and Eric Fry agree. It’s why we decided to team up and create a new portfolio of seven stocks that we believe will lead this next stage of AI development. These AI Appliers are... We also believe these firms will help investors prepare financially for a world increasingly dominated by computers that are smarter than the average person (though still far from perfect). To learn more about our AI Appliers portfolio and how to access it, watch our broadcast here . Sincerely, Louis Navellier Editor, Market 360 The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below: NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) and Super Micro Computer, Inc. ( SMCI )
Mumbai: Titwala's 22-year-old Kunal Gondke could have been another addition to the suburban railway's 2,590 death toll last year. On December 20, a delay on his Titwala-to-Kalyan train caused overcrowding, leaving him feeling crushed and suffocated. In an attempt to gasp for air, he briefly slid toward the door, but in doing so, he struck a pole and fell out, sustaining fractured ribs, a shattered spine, a punctured lung, a skull fracture, a broken pelvis, and a severed artery. He was first rushed to Kalyan's Rukmini Bai Hospital, only to be told by the staff that the facility was ill-equipped to handle a critical patient like him. From that moment, his father, Kisan Gondake, a police head constable, was thrust into a spiral of debt, spending Rs 58 lakh in medical and allied expenses to piece his son's body back together. Kisan said that claims under the Maharashtra Police Kutumb Arogya Yojana are still pending, and he has filed a case against the railways, asking for compensation of the amount spent in treatment. Kunal underwent multiple procedures in the first few months of this year at Fortis Hospital, first in Kalyan and then in Mulund. In May, permanent implants were fitted to support his spine, giving him a fighting chance to walk again. "I was told by doctors to use dumbbells to strengthen my arms before I could even consider trying to walk," Kunal recalled. The family's priorities have shifted in the aftermath. Everyone pitched in to help with his home exercises, gently moving his legs and feet to keep the circulation going. His eldest sister left her bank job to care for the youngest of the three siblings. A physiotherapist joined the effort later on. He finally took his first steps in October. Falling and tumbling in the beginning, and now reliant on a walker, he remains far from whole again. On the day of the accident, he was heading to his village in Ahmednagar to prepare for his long-aspired fish farming business, a dream he had since childhood, driven by his dislike for city life. "As medical professionals, we have done our part in reviving him and fixing damages to his body. But it is also that boy's determination and his family's sacrifices that have made it possible for him to have a normal future moving ahead," said Dr Jumana Haji, head of Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) at Fortis Hospital in Mulund. ECMO is a life-support machine that takes over the job of the heart and lungs by pumping blood outside the body, adding oxygen to it, and removing carbon dioxide when the organs can't do it on their own. ECMO helps stabilise critically ill patients like Kunal, allowing them to survive as their body begins its healing process. It also allows patients who have a 90 per cent chance of perishing, a chance to undergo essential treatments like nutritional support, physical rehabilitation, and other medical procedures. The initial ECMO cost at a private hospital can start from Rs 5 lakh. The machine is available in select public hospitals, Parel's King Edward Memorial Hospital being one of them. While the technology has been available in India since the mid-2000s, it was most used during the COVID-19 pandemic. The most notable use has been during the passing of Tamil Nadu's late AIADMK leader and CM Jayalalitha. Stay updated with the latest news on Times of India . Don't miss daily games like Crossword , Sudoku , and Mini Crossword .The US oil and gas rig count gained two rigs, making a total of 619 for the week ended Dec. 11, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey showed, as activity appeared to be settling at a recent new low range during the final weeks of 2024. The oil-directed rig count for the week gained two for a total 515, while gas-oriented rigs were unchanged at 104, according to the Dec. 19 survey. The total rig count has been below 700 for more than a year, but the past week is its third consecutive week below 620. Prior to that, rig activity had bounced around generally in the 630s since July. The new low range may be traceable to the holiday season which will occupy the next few weeks and is typically a more sluggish activity period as E&P budgets are nearly exhausted and Christmas-New Year absences frequent. But analysts expect a bit lower oil-directed rig count in 2025-2026 owing to projected lower commodity prices. The last time the rig count was in the teens was more than three years ago – before mid-September 2021, as markets were beginning to emerge from the pandemic. But at the time, the rig count was headed up. ‘Tricky investment environment’ in 2025 “The US upstream landscape ... is shaping up as a tricky investment environment in 2025,” investment bank Piper Sandler said in a December 17 investor note. “E&Ps continue to deliver on strong operating efficiencies while remaining capital disciplined in the face of an uncertain macro environment,” the bank said. “Overall sentiment has favored gas-weighted equity as last week saw our first big winter storage withdrawal (190 Bcf), LNG export facility start-ups approach and the power-demand outlook remains robust.” “On the oil front, while US [production] growth is decelerating in fiscal year 2025, the new administration is promising lower oil prices and Saudi/OPEC+ have ample spare capacity to make it happen,” it said. While US crude production in 2023 grew by 1 million b/d from January to the end of December, so far in 2024 it has grown by about 400,000 from January 2024, reaching about 13,600 b/d for the week ended Dec. 13. Moreover, “OPEC+ is sitting on more than 4 million b/d of spare capacity after a pretty lackluster year of demand, including declines from China,” Piper Sandler said. Commodity Insights, in a Nov. 25 Future Energy Outlooks Quarterly Tracking Report, suggested the days of more than 1 million b/d of yearly crude oil growth from the US alone “are almost certainly over.” But, “the shorter lead time nature of shale production will allow for production to ramp up if balances are tight enough and prices are strong enough to call for it,” the report said. “Overall, we project the trajectory of US production will mirror that of global oil demand, highlighted by decelerating growth over the balance of the 2020s and an undulating plateau in the late 2020s/early-2030s, followed by a structural decline thereafter.” But some uncertainty lies in the fact that the bulk of US oil comes from shale plays, and operators large and small continue to eke out drilling and well efficiencies. These continual improvements have been a key accomplishment of upstream operators for at least 10 years, lowering their costs but also their rig counts in the process and providing less work over time for oilfield service providers. The current US rig count of 619 for the week ended Dec. 11 is down by 60 year over year or nearly 9%. Efficiencies to persist in 2025 Efficiencies such as better well designs and improved identification of the choicest locations within an oil and gas formation should continue to improve well operations in 2025, assisted by artificial intelligence. “We would not count out further nominal gains [to] come,” Piper Sandler said. In particular, “[well] completion efficiency has stolen the show in 2024 as operators adopt new completion technology.. That includes both SimilFrac (completing two wells simultaneously) and TrimulFrac (completing three wells simultaneously). “With an operator required to run five to six rigs ahead of a SimulFrac spread, the next leg of completion efficiency is pointing to more consolidation required for smaller operators to compete,” the bank said, adding it forecasts its covered E&P companies will spend 5% less capex to deliver 1% oil and gas growth adjusted for acquisitions. Investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt notes the private rig count has fallen in recent months — with big drops on some weeks. For example, according to CI data, private E&Ps dropped nine rigs leaving 406 rigs for the week ended Nov. 27. It also fell six rigs to 421 during the week ended Oct. 30 and plummeted 13 to 414 the week ended Sept. 25. For the week ended Dec. 11, the private rig count rose by five to 407, but is still substantially lower than its perch in the 420s ad 430s early in 2024. “We see the potential for missing rigs to return to the dataset over the following weeks, notwithstanding market churn” or normal turnover of rigs as old contracts lapse and new ones begin, TPH said in its Dec. 16 daily investor note. For the week ended Dec. 11, the Williston Basin saw the biggest change – up four to 40. Two natural gas-focused plays, the Haynesville Shale and Utica Shale, also gained rigs — the Haynesville was up one to 38 and the Utica up two to 11. But five basins shed rigs. The Permian Basin was down two rigs to 282 – a level not seen since the last week of 2021. The Eagle Ford Shale was also down two to 47 while the SCOOP/STACK, Marcellus Shale and DJ Basin were down by one each, leaving 25, 18 and 14 respectively. Source:
Ol’ Man River – John Mulqueen on singer and activist Paul Robeson
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Jury's Mixed Verdict: Qualcomm's Victory in Licensing Dispute with Arm HoldingsHere's how Costco, the world's largest warehouse membership club, came to be. Book bargain hunters will be disappointed to learn Costco plans to stop selling books at most of its U.S. stores at the beginning of the year. In January, Costco will remove the store’s popular book section from the majority of its 600-plus stores in the United States. And it will only return during the holiday season, from September to December, and at other intermittent times, the discount store chain told publishers over the summer, according to The New York Times. Costco told the executives the change was made because stocking books on tables is labor-intensive and must be done by hand rather than by forklift like other products, the Times reported. HOW TO SCORE A SELECT COSTCO MEMBERSHIP FOR JUST $20 Book bargain hunters will be disappointed to learn Costco plans to stop selling books at most of its U.S. stores at the beginning of the year. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) The decision comes as more consumers are buying books through online outlets like Amazon . Books will remain in around 100 Costco stores across the country all year, however, trade news magazine Publisher’s Weekly reported this week. The decision to keep some books in stores would be a reversal from the store’s earlier plans, the outlet reported. In January, Costco will remove the store’s popular book section from the majority of its 600-plus stores in the United States. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) Publishing and Costco executives will also be watching sales trends for Taylor Swift’s official Eras Tour book, which is being sold exclusively at Target starting on Black Friday , Publisher’s Weekly reported. If book sales continue to do well, Costco could bring literary sections back to more stores, according to the magazine, or all of them could become seasonal if sales lag. Shopper looking at Costco books. (Tim Boyle/Getty Images) FOX Business has reached out to Costco for comment. LINK: Get updates on this story and more at foxbusiness.com.