The fall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government led to the second collapse of a French government in 62 years – exactly 62 years after the first, in October 1962. It’s historic because the second prime minister came from a right-wing coalition, marking the first time since the creation of the Fifth Republic in 1958 that such a situation occurred. The Fifth Republic was established to end political instability and the anarchic parliamentary system. Barnier did resign and the president accepted his resignation according to Article 50 of the constitution. He will serve as caretaker government chief until the president appoints a new prime minister in the coming days. In the aftermath of this political drama, France has been grappling with instability since June when President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the French lower chamber (L'Assemblée Nationale). Ever since, the political situation has worsened and the specter of political instability and economic anxiety has haunted both the president and the country. This president sought to change France’s century-old political culture, which has been defined by the aggressive role of political elites, the media and political parties toward political leaders – or, as they call it, the monarch, despite the end of the monarchy in France in 1792. Yet, Macron, who entered the political arena in late 2016, sought power and led a country where politics has been marked by violence, treason and cruelty. He positioned himself in 2017 as a new young president and a voice of change. In fact, he managed to dismantle the two main conventional political parties, the Socialists and the Gaullists, in both 2017 and 2022 – a revolutionary paradigm in French politics. He even published a book called La Revolution. President Macron ’s governing style and economic program quickly clashed with public opinion and the political opposition, both left and right. This began early on with the progressive media during the Benalla scandal in the summer of 2018 and worsened later with the long-running Yellow Vest protests. The conflict continued through last winter with a large anti-pension and retirement reform bill, which ex-Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass without a vote in the National Assembly. The no-confidence vote was related to Barnier’s government’s failure to convince Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally Party (RN), to back a budget that left-wing and far-right groups in the lower chamber judged too austere, with more taxes and spending cuts to address France’s spiraling deficit. This occurred despite concessions made to address Le Pen's concerns. This helps explain the main reason for the no-confidence vote that toppled Barnier’s minority government: 331 lawmakers from the left-wing coalition of New Popular Front (NFP) and the far-right coalition of the RN, joined by lawmaker Eric Cioti’s group in the National Assembly. This unlikely alliance of the NFP and the far-right seeks to end President Macron’s political career and force him into early retirement . Le Pen is positioning herself as the likely candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. Since the outcome of the July 2024 parliamentary elections, she has positioned herself as the “kingmaker” in French politics, given the incoherent axis in the newly elected lower chamber. Barnier, however, tried to bring Le Pen and her allies to the negotiating table in recent weeks. He made several concessions to the far-right alliance but Le Pen’s tactics seemed more focused on shifting the balance of power than on negotiations. This shift drew criticism from the so-called centrist or presidential alliance in the lower chamber, as well as from pro-president media and the president himself, who in his 10-minute speech to the nation, blamed Le Pen and the NFP coalition – particularly the France Unbowed Party (LFI) and its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon – for causing chaos. The melancholy that dominates France’s general mood these days persists, despite the country being on a national celebration: the extravagant preparation for the restoration of Notre Dame Cathedral, five years after the fire on April 15, 2019. Notre Dame did open its wooden high door with an official speech by Macron, attended by world leaders, such as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. This was followed by a liturgical ceremony to mark the cathedral's official reopening, in a secular republic where laicite has become, under Macron’s presidency, the de facto “religion of state.” Despite this, France’s domestic political crisis is weighing heavily, both locally and internationally. Paris is losing its prestige and influence on the world stage, with its diplomacy in sharp decline in both Europe and the MENA region. The latest diplomatic setback occurred in the African Sahel, where N'Djamena and Dakar decided to end military cooperation with Paris and demanded the removal of French military bases. This has exposed France to one of the most multi-dimensional crises it has faced since May 1968. If Macron steps down, it would be a historic moment for France, as no president in the modern republic has resigned apart from Charles de Gaulle in 1969 following the result of a constitutional reform referendum, months after the violent 1968 societal riots that dramatically changed France’s political and social trajectory. This partisan judgment extends beyond the RN. Left-wing lawmakers, after their victory in last July’s elections, have been calling for the president’s resignation. The French executive branch works at two levels: the prime minister controls day-to-day domestic affairs, while the president has significant powers, including foreign policy and defense. Constitutionally, Macron is right; there is no article stipulating that a president must resign after their government is ousted by the National Assembly. Macron has made it clear that he will not step down as requested by the LFI Party and the RN Party. However, there is a risk that if the political drama he calls “political fiction” is not resolved by next summer, he may be forced to dissolve the National Assembly again next June. This remains a possibility, as the French lower chamber is divided into three almost equal, but very heterogeneous, factions: the left-wing, right-of-center and far-right, which have been clashing for the past two and a half years. Macron has explicitly rejected calls for new legislative elections. The French Constitution stipulates that new elections cannot be held within 12 months of the previous ones. His supporters, including media and lawmakers, are defending the president but according to ELAB, 63% of public opinion favors his resignation. In a post-Barnier government fall context, Macron met on Tuesday afternoon with the so-called Republican arc that goes from the right to the left political parties to not censure the next government if the latter does not use the controversial Article 49-3 of the constitution – in other words an act of non-aggression pact from the Republican arc. This time Macron excluded the two main political parties of the opposition in the lower chamber: the LFI and RN Party on Tuesday afternoon. Macron’s strategy, however, is to take away the leisure from Le Pen for being France’s kingmaker, as on his left, Macron is in the process of imploding the NFP coalition, hence he removes the threat of his resignation and early presidential elections requested by the RN and the LFI. Macron is likely to appoint a new prime minister today — he may appoint a new premier, François Bayrou, leader of the center-right Democratic Movement Party, in the coming days. Bayrou, however, belongs to the old political establishment that Macron sought to dismantle when he came to power in 2017. In summary, politics is full of irony. A president who sought to usher in a “modern” style of governance now finds himself relying on help from a politician who has been in the arena for five decades, an ardent defender of parliamentarism – a system that would mark the end of Macron’s political vision.Residents and relatives say at least nine people were killed during an attack in the Arsi Zone of the Oromia region of Ethiopia on Thursday. Adebebu Workineh is a resident of the Shirka Woreda — or district — in the Arsi Zone, about 250 kilometers southeast of Addis Ababa. He told VOA his younger brother, Haile Workineh, was among the nine victims. "The perpetrators called him from his house and later killed him at a nearby river alongside others," Workineh said in Amharic. Among the dead were women and elders, he added. "During the raid I heard [about] the abduction by phone, but I thought they would ask for ransom as usual. They were carrying rifles, and we were afraid to confront them at the time," he said in Amharic. A second resident of Shirka, who would not give his name because of fear for his safety, said most of the victims were Christians. The whereabouts of four other people who were abducted are not known, he told VOA. Social media sites published purported video of nine bodies wrapped in white clothes being buried together. VOA was not able to independently verify the video. The Arsi Zone, a region known for agriculture, is now marred by violence and killing. Residents blamed the Oromo Liberation Army, an outlawed rebel group fighting against the Ethiopian government army, for the killings. Jiregna Gudeta, an adviser to the OLA commander, told VOA he has no detailed information about the incident and denied OLA was involved. Residents say local authorities do little to protect civilians. The ENAT Party, one of the opposition political parties in Ethiopia, has condemned the attack. "Our concern is not the dead ones, we [are] reaching out to the state officers for the people who are about to be the victim of such killing, we immediately call for the state to act," said Getnet Worku, secretary-general of the party. Oromia regional authorities declined to comment on the attack. Peace rallies were held in six zones in the Oromia region in mid-November. Participants of the demonstrations said the aim was to condemn OLA and demand peace in the region. Oromia region spokesperson Hailu Adugna said at the time that the rallies were organized by the local communities and that government officials had no role. But some witnesses told VOA that government officials were urging people to participate in the demonstrations. Jiregna, reacting to the demonstrations in mid-November, said their group is ready to resolve conflicts peacefully. He said it is doubtful whether the people or the government organized the rally for peace. A previous round of peace talks last year between Ethiopia's federal government and the OLA in Tanzania's semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar — has failed to end the violence. The two sides blamed each other for the failure of the talks. The government cited "unrealistic demands" by the armed group while OLA accused the government of failing to address "fundamental problems" facing the country, according to Reuters. This story originated in VOA's Horn of Africa Service.Keir Starmer’s first Christmas as Prime Minister is likely to go a little different than planned. Forget, feet in front of the fire at Chequers as he basks in a post-election victory glow. Instead, for the first time in years, people will be delighted to get coal in their stockings – as pensioners struggle without winter fuel allowance. Meanwhile, Starmer had best avoid getting his turkey from a farm shop – with farmers in revolt over Rachel Reeves’s Budget. On the upside, Santa may in his sack give Starmer the only gift this year he doesn’t have to declare. In truth, the Prime Minister should still be riding a post-election high having just a few months ago brought Labour back into government after 14 years out in the cold. The only negative on election night was that Starmer fell 7 seats short of matching Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide – a cause of mild irritation to both Starmer and his senior adviser Morgan McSweeney. But it’s not just on seat count that Starmer is falling short of Blair these days. After 1997, it was unfathomable that Blair would be embarking on a ‘reset’ before the year is out. Yet this is what Keir Starmer is having to do as his team try to turn the page on a rocky start to government that has seen a row over freebies, major staff changes, tax rises no-one mentioned during the election campaign – and just this week his first cabinet resignation – over a fraud conviction he knew about when he appointed her. Most read in The Sun For all the talk of change during the election, it often feels rather like the government that came before: infighting, psychodrama and sleaze. So, Starmer is having to recalibrate. Next week he will take the first step in project ‘new year new Keir’ as he uses a speech to try to put the flesh on the bones of his government agenda – and try to show that he does have the people’s priorities at the heart of it. Expect more specific targets with McSweeney carrying out polling to refine the government message. That’s just the beginning as Starmer’s new look No. 10 try to change the narrative around the beleaguered PM. Too often Starmer looks as though he is a passenger rather than the one making the political weather . In No. 10, civil servants have been surprised at how different he is to Rishi Sunak – who would send them into a spin with notes on everything put in his red box. Starmer is said to have a more hands off approach. But now he needs to get a grip. So, what else should Starmer do? Going into the new year No. 10 staff are going to have to do more than blame everything that has gone wrong on Sue Gray, the former civil servant – which has been a go-to excuse in recent months. ‘There is nowhere to hide now,’ says a minister of Starmer’s new No. 10 – led by McSweeney. The Prime Minister and his team are looking at the return of Donald Trump across the pond and the rise of Reform, and take the lesson that they need to get back to talking about people’s priorities. They want to show they can move to the issues that see voters often look to the right. Even good news – like the fall in immigration figures announced this week can’t be attributed to his decisions, they are a Conservative legacy. In No. 10, aides are taking comfort from the fact that they have time to turn things around. ‘We have four years,’ says a senior Labour figure on the need not to panic. But with the Tories edging ahead in the polls, even government figures admit that the party might start to panic if things look this bleak in the new year. ‘I know we’ve got time,’ says a member of the government. ‘But I give it a few months before ministers start to speak out. A lot of us are wondering what’s the point of the government’. So, Starmer needs an agenda. There have been some promising signs – the employment white paper – and there will be more on NHS reform. Then there’s the economy. Starmer and Reeves need to shake off the negativity – and they need to learn from the States and the mistakes of the Democrats – everyone said the economy was going gangbusters, but voters didn’t feel it. They need to find ways to make wide mission concepts something voters can chart in their every day lives. Starmer may have a big majority but the vote share is small. To move the dial, he needs to govern for the whole country – including those that didn’t vote for him. READ MORE SUN STORIES That means a focus on the things voters are most worried about: cost of living , borders and security. If he can do that, he’ll have reason for some Christmas cheer this time next year. Or else Starmer might next year find he’s be the one worried about getting the sack.
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