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Earth just experienced its second-warmest November on record — second only to 2023 — making it all but certain that 2024 will end as the hottest year ever measured, according to a report Monday by European climate service Copernicus. Last year was the hottest on record due to human-caused climate change coupled with the effects of an El Nino. But after this summer registered as the hottest on record — Phoenix sweltered through 113 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit — scientists anticipated 2024 would set a new annual record as well. In November, global temperatures averaged 14.10C (57.38F). Last year's global average temperature was 14.98C (59F). FILE - People are silhouetted against the sky at sunset Nov. 12 as they run in a park in Shawnee, Kan. Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who wasn't involved in the report, said the big story about November is that "like 2023, it beat out previous Novembers by a large margin." This also likely will be the first calendar year in which the average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the report said. The 2015 Paris Agreement said human-caused warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally below 1.5. In the following years, the world's top scientist said limiting to 1.5 was crucial to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, such as increasing destructive and frequent extreme weather events. Scientists say the main cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. That "does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess. A young family visiting Washington cools off from the warm weather in a fountain Nov. 6 at the base of the Washington Monument. Francis said the new records are "terrible news for people and ecosystems." "The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they always have during previous changes in the Earth's climate. More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs they're a part of. Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decline and pests flourish," she said, also warning that coastal communities will be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Heat waves over the oceans and a loss of reflective sea ice and snow cover probably contributed to the temperature increase this year, experts said. Copernicus said the extent of Antarctic sea ice in November was 10% below average, a record. Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, later releasing heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere. Last year's record heat was caused partly by an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide. People walk Nov. 27 on an autumn-colored ginkgo tree-lined avenue in Tokyo. But that ended this year and a cooling effect that often follows, called La Nina, failed to materialize, leaving the scientific community "a little perplexed by what's going on here ... why temperatures are staying high," said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. One explanation is that an El Nino releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, then "we're not getting the cooling effect that often in decades gone by helps bring the temperature back down," Overpeck said. "So it does look like this could be contributing to the acceleration of global warming. But this year, he said, "is such a big jump following yet another jump, and that's a scary thing." It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as " heatflation ." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — blistering temperatures in Texas , a destructive tornado in Iowa — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket. At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As Grist reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are bracing for this summer — can prompt a spike in prices. It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. "When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee. How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases. "The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story." Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed 25 percent since 2020 . Climate change may be contributing as well. A study published earlier this year found " heatflation " could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world — known as multi-breadbasket failure — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs. Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like vital shipping channels during harvest seasons. "As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before." An ongoing drought that plagued the Mississippi River system from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers 31 states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces 92 percent of the nation's agricultural exports, 78 percent of the world's feed grains and soybeans , and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its roughly 2,350 miles of channels carry 589 million tons of cargo annually . Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the Corn Belt to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a high demand, low supply situation as shipping and commodity prices shot up , with economists expecting consumers to absorb those costs . Past research showing that retail prices increase alongside commodity prices suggests that the drought probably contributed to higher overall food costs last year — and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling stubbornly high grocery prices today. But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, particularly for meat and dairy products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a lack of research analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including global trade, war, and export bans , influence specific examples of sticker shock. While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin Çakır, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said Çakır. In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, Çakır examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces a third of the nation's vegetables and nearly two-thirds of its fruits and nuts , and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as Çakır expected. This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the resiliency of America's food system . Public safety nets like crop insurance and other federal programs have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against climate change and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability. A 2024 study of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability." Last year was the world's warmest on record , creating an onslaught of challenges for crop and livestock producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more brutal , with the transition from El Niño — an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures — to La Niña , its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another potential threat for crop yields and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on. They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Niño cycle gives way to a La Niña, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Niña develops. It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt ... that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts." As of January , U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting drought that began in 2020 . Americans, the majority of whom are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see "record" beef prices at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another 2.2 percent in 2024 , according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. In a world enmeshed in extremes, our already-fragile food supply chain could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering. This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media. Get the daily forecast and severe weather alerts in your inbox!
Liberal GST holiday expected to pass soon as government introduces solo billCALGARY, Alberta (AP) — A Ukrainian girls’ hockey team is in Canada for a few days of peace and hockey in an arena that doesn’t have a missile-sized hole in its roof. After 56 hours of travel to Calgary, including a 24-hour bus ride from Dnipro to Warsaw, Poland, that required army escort for a portion of it, the Ukrainian Wings will join Wickfest, Hayley Wickenheiser’s annual girls’ hockey festival, on Thursday. The squad of players aged 11 to 13 was drawn from eight different cities in Ukraine, where sport facilities have been damaged or destroyed since Russia started its invasion in February 2022. “They all have a personal story of something awful happening,” said Wickenheiser. “We give them a week of peace and joy here, and I hope they can carry that with them. “We know full well they’re going back to difficult circumstances. It’s tough that way.” Nine players are from Kharkiv, where pictures show a large hole in the roof of the Saltovskiy Led arena where the girls’ team WHC Panthers once skated. “It was our home ice arena, and we played all our national team championships in this ice arena,” said Kateryna Seredenko, who oversees the Panthers program and is the Wings general manager. Ukraine’s Olympic Committee posted photos and wrote in a Facebook post Sept. 1 that Kharkiv’s Sport Palace, which was home to multiple hockey teams, was also destroyed in an attack on the city. Seredenko says the Wings’ arduous journey to Calgary was worth it because it gives the girls hope. “It’s not a good situation in Ukraine, but when they come here, they can believe that everything will be good, everything will be fine, of course we will win soon and we must play hockey. We can’t stop because we love these girls and we will do everything for them,” she said. “So many girls on this Ukrainian team are future players of the national team.” Wickenheiser, a Hockey Hall of Famer , is the assistant general manager of player development for the Toronto Maple Leafs and a doctor who works emergency room shifts in the Toronto area. The six-time Olympian and four-time gold medalist organized her first Wickfest after the 2010 Winter Games. She’s had teams from India, Mexico and the Czech Republic attend over the last decade and a half, but never a team that ran the Ukrainians’ gauntlet of logistics. The Canadian Partnership for Women and Children’s Health took on the task of arranging visas and paying for the team’s travel. “We care about women and children’s health. Sport is such a symbol. When you see a group of girls coming off the ice all sweaty and having worked hard on the ice, it’s a symbol of a healthy girl,” said chief executive officer Julia Anderson. “That’s a healthy kid that’s able to participate in sport. We really believe if we can get girls there, whether they’re in an active war zone, or here in Canada, those girls will change the world.” The Wings aren’t the first Ukrainians to seek a hockey haven in Canada since the war began. An under-25 men’s team played four games against university squads in early 2023 to prepare for that year’s world university games. Ukrainian teams have also twice played in the Quebec City International Pee-Wee Hockey Tournament. “It’s the first time in Ukrainian history where a girls’ team is coming to Canada to a very good tournament,” Seredenko said. “They can see how they can play in their future. And they can see how it is to play hockey in Canada.” AP sports: https://apnews.com/sports