India's occupational safety and health (OSH) market is booming, with projections of reaching USD 1 billion in the next five years. OSH India 2024 expo and conference highlighted the growing importance of workplace safety and the role of innovative solutions like AI and sustainable materials. Key factors driving growth include increased awareness, stricter regulations, and a shift towards prioritizing worker safety. Assembly Election Results Election Results 2024 Live Updates Maharashtra Assembly Election Results 2024 Live Updates Jharkhand Assembly Election Results 2024 Live Updates Challenges such as lack of awareness, enforcement, and quality control need to be addressed to fully realize the potential of the Indian OSH market. “Safety is crucial in all aspects of life, from work to home. Proper PPE, tailored to specific jobs, is essential for worker protection. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) has evolved with the times, incorporating cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence to provide advanced protection. Investing in safety measures is more cost-effective than dealing with accidents.” said Ram Dahiphale, additional director, directorate of industrial safety & health, Govt. of Maharashtra on the sidelines of OSH India expo and conference organised by Informa Markets in India. The three-day OSH India expo brought together international experts, industry leaders, and over 250 brands to showcase innovations and discuss workplace safety solutions. At the event, Bharat Petroleum’s Executive Director, Sanjeev Raina, stressed integrating safety into core business values, while SAMA President, Mahesh Kudav, discussed India’s potential as a global safety appliance exporter. Maharashtra Jharkhand Maharashtra Alliance View i Party View Seats: 288 L + W Majority: 145 BJP+ 219 MVA 52 OTH 17 Leads + Wins : 288 / 288 BJP+ LEADING Jharkhand Alliance View i Party View Seats: 81 L + W Majority: 41 INDIA 55 NDA 23 OTH 3 Leads + Wins : 81 / 81 INDIA LEADING Source: PValue As the event organiser, Informa Markets in India MD, Yogesh Mudras said “India's growing workforce of 643.3 million necessitates a strong focus on occupational safety. As the country rapidly industrializes, prioritizing workplace safety is crucial for both ethical and strategic reasons, ensuring long-term sustainability and growth.”None
(Photo by Skitterphoto via Pexels) By Stephen Beech via SWNS Cleaning surfaces every two hours at airports cuts potentially deadly norovirus infections by 83%, according to a new study. Researchers found that airport restaurants had the highest risk of norovirus transmission . But frequently disinfecting surfaces, mask-wearing and antimicrobial surface coatings at the transport hubs can all help prevent the highly contagious illness - also known as the winter vomiting bug - from spreading, say scientists. Study author Professor Nan Zhang, of the Beijing University of Technology in China, said: "Norovirus causes severe vomiting and diarrhea and is responsible for about 685 million cases and 200,000 deaths each year. "The virus is primarily transmitted through surfaces and outbreaks during air travel are especially common, due to the large number of public surfaces in airports." (PLOS Computational Biology via SWNS) To investigate the risk of norovirus infection from surfaces among passengers in different zones of the airport, the research team collected real touch data from 21.3 hours of video, which captured almost 26,000 touches. They developed a model of surface transmission and simulated the risk of infection from norovirus and the effectiveness of various interventions in different airport areas. Zhang said: "The touch data showed that, without any interventions, restaurants at airports had the highest risk of norovirus transmission, with approximately 4.6 out of 51,494 travelers infected. "Disinfecting public surfaces every two hours reduced the risk of norovirus infection per visit to the airport by 83.2%. "In contrast, handwashing every two hours reduced the risk by only 2%, and mask-wearing 50% of the time reduced risk by 48.0%, because masks stop people from touching their face. CDC "Furthermore, using antimicrobial copper or copper-nickel alloy coatings for most public surfaces lowered the infection risk by 15.9% to 99.2%." He says the study, published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology , provides "crucial" insights for developing infection prevention and control strategies specifically tailored for norovirus within airport environments. Zhang noted that the data for the study was collected during the COVID-19 pandemic , so surface-touching behaviors may have been different from normal. But he said that, overall, the simulated results indicated that public surface disinfection, mask-wearing wearing and the use of antimicrobial surfaces are effective ways of controlling the spread of norovirus via surfaces. Zhang added: "Regular surface infection is much more effective than regular handwashing for blocking norovirus transmission via fomite route in airports."Q3 2024 Overview SAN DIEGO , Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: WOOF), a complete partner in pet health and wellness, today announced its third quarter 2024 financial results. In the third quarter of 2024, Petco delivered net revenue of $1.51 billion , up 1.2 percent versus prior year. On an as-reported basis, the company's consumables business was up 2.7 percent versus prior year, and services and other business was up 5.0 percent versus prior year. Growth in the company's consumables and services and other businesses was offset by the company's supplies and companion animal business, down 2.8 percent versus prior year. GAAP net loss in the third quarter of 2024 was $16.7 million , or $(0.06) per share, compared to GAAP net loss of $1.2 billion , or $(4.63) per share in the prior year, which included a $1.2 billion non-cash goodwill impairment charge associated with goodwill originally recorded in 2015. Adjusted Net Income 1 was $(6.5) million , or $(0.02) per share 1 , compared to $(14.5) million , or $(0.05) per share 1 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA 1 was $81.2 million compared to $72.2 million in the prior year. "Our third quarter results demonstrate the meaningful progress we're making to strengthen our retail fundamentals to drive sustainable, profitable growth," said Joel Anderson , Petco's Chief Executive Officer. "While there is more work to do, our improving results increase our conviction that we are on the right path to position Petco to win long-term. Our entire organization is focused on driving profitability and free cash flow, and I'm confident we're set up for a solid finish to 2024." (1) Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings Per Share ("Adjusted EPS"), and Free Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures. See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for additional information on non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures. Fiscal Q4 2024 Outlook The company is providing Q4 guidance for revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS, in addition to full year interest expense and capital expenditure expectations. For Fiscal Q4 2024, the company expects: Metric* FQ4 2024 Guidance Net Revenue ~ $1.55 billion Adjusted EBITDA Between $90 million and $95 million, including a minimum of $10 million in third party consulting fees associated with our transformation effort Adjusted EPS Between $0.00 and $0.02 For Fiscal 2024 (a 52-week year), the company expects the following: Metric* 2024 Guidance, YoY Net interest expense ~$140 million Capital Expenditures ~$130 million *Assumptions in the guidance include that economic conditions, currency rates and the tax and regulatory landscape remain generally consistent. For fiscal 2024, our guidance anticipates a 26 percent tax rate, and 273 million weighted average diluted share count. Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS are non-GAAP financial measures and have not been reconciled to the most comparable GAAP outlook because it is not possible to do so without unreasonable efforts due to the uncertainty and potential variability of reconciling items, which are dependent on future events and often outside of management's control and which could be significant. Because such items cannot be reasonably predicted with the level of precision required, we are unable to provide outlook for the comparable GAAP measures. Forward-looking estimates of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS are made in a manner consistent with the relevant definitions and assumptions noted herein and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Earnings Conference Call Webcast Information: Management will host an earnings conference call on December 5, 2024 at approximately 4:30 PM Eastern Time to discuss the company's financial results. The conference call will be accessible through a live webcast. Interested investors and other individuals can access the webcast, earnings release, and earnings presentation via the company's investor relations page at ir.petco.com . A replay of the webcast will be archived on the company's investor relations page through December 19, 2024 until approximately 5:00 PM Eastern Time . About Petco, The Health + Wellness Co.: Founded in 1965, Petco is a category-defining health and wellness company focused on improving the lives of pets, pet parents and our own Petco partners. We've consistently set new standards in pet care while delivering comprehensive pet wellness products, services and solutions, and creating communities that deepen the pet-pet parent bond. We operate more than 1,500 pet care centers across the U.S., Mexico and Puerto Rico , which offer merchandise, companion animals, grooming, training and a growing network of on-site veterinary hospitals and mobile veterinary clinics. Our complete pet health and wellness ecosystem is accessible through our pet care centers and digitally at petco.com and on the Petco app . In tandem with Petco Love , a life-changing independent nonprofit organization, we work with and support thousands of local animal welfare groups across the country and, through in-store adoption events, we've helped find homes for nearly 7 million animals. Forward-Looking Statements: This earnings release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, concerning expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance and underlying assumptions and other statements that are not statements of historical fact, including, but not limited to, statements regarding our Q4 and full year 2024 guidance, operational reset of our business, our competitive positioning, profitability, cost action plans and associated cost-savings. Such forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terms such as "believes," "expects," "may," "intends," "will," "shall," "should," "anticipates," "opportunity," "illustrative," or the negative thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Although Petco believes that the expectations and assumptions reflected in these statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct or that any forward-looking results will occur or be realized. Nothing contained in this earnings release is, or should be relied upon as, a promise or representation or warranty as to any future matter, including any matter in respect of the operations or business or financial condition of Petco. All forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions about future events that may or may not be correct or necessarily take place and that are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are outside the control of Petco. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the potential results or events discussed in the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, those identified in this earnings release as well as the following: (i) increased competition (including from multi-channel retailers, mass and grocery retailers, and e-Commerce providers); (ii) reduced consumer demand for our products and/or services; (iii) our reliance on key vendors; (iv) our ability to attract and retain qualified employees; (v) risks arising from statutory, regulatory and/or legal developments; (vi) macroeconomic pressures in the markets in which we operate, including inflation, prevailing interest rates and the impact of tariffs; (vii) failure to effectively manage our costs; (viii) our reliance on our information technology systems; (ix) our ability to prevent or effectively respond to a data privacy or security breach; (x) our ability to effectively manage or integrate strategic ventures, alliances or acquisitions and realize the anticipated benefits of such transactions; (xi) economic or regulatory developments that might affect our ability to provide attractive promotional financing; (xii) business interruptions and other supply chain issues; (xiii) catastrophic events, political tensions, conflicts and wars (such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East ), health crises, and pandemics; (xiv) our ability to maintain positive brand perception and recognition; (xv) product safety and quality concerns; (xvi) changes to labor or employment laws or regulations; (xvii) our ability to effectively manage our real estate portfolio; (xviii) constraints in the capital markets or our vendor credit terms; (xix) changes in our credit ratings; (xx) impairments of the carrying value of our goodwill and other intangible assets; (xxi) our ability to successfully implement our operational adjustments, achieve the expected benefits of our cost action plans and drive improved profitability; and (xxii) the other risks, uncertainties and other factors identified under "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in Petco's Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The occurrence of any such factors could significantly alter the results set forth in these statements. Petco cautions that the foregoing list of risks, uncertainties and other factors is not complete, and forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Petco undertakes no duty to update publicly any such forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law, regulation or other competent legal authority. PETCO HEALTH AND WELLNESS COMPANY, INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In thousands, except per share amounts) (Unaudited and subject to reclassification) 13 Weeks Ended November 2, 2024 October 28, 2023 Percent Change Net sales: Products $ 1,263,194 $ 1,257,803 0 % Services and other 248,243 236,363 5 % Total net sales 1,511,437 1,494,166 1 % Cost of sales: Products 782,240 787,994 (1 %) Services and other 153,440 156,171 (2 %) Total cost of sales 935,680 944,165 (1 %) Gross profit 575,757 550,001 5 % Selling, general and administrative expenses 571,780 559,611 2 % Goodwill impairment — 1,222,524 (100 %) Operating income (loss) 3,977 (1,232,134) N/M Interest income (1,346) (1,139) 18 % Interest expense 35,797 36,557 (2 %) Loss on partial extinguishment of debt — 174 (100 %) Other non-operating income (8,465) (113) 7,391 % Loss before income taxes and income from equity method investees (22,009) (1,267,613) (98 %) Income tax benefit (857) (22,902) (96 %) Income from equity method investees (4,479) (3,574) 25 % Net loss attributable to Class A and B-1 common stockholders $ (16,673) $ (1,241,137) (99 %) Net loss per Class A and B-1 common share: Basic $ (0.06) $ (4.63) (99 %) Diluted $ (0.06) $ (4.63) (99 %) Weighted average shares used in computing net loss per Class A and B-1 common share: Basic 274,495 267,852 2 % Diluted 274,495 267,852 2 % PETCO HEALTH AND WELLNESS COMPANY, INC. CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (In thousands, except per share amounts) (Unaudited and subject to reclassification) November 2, 2024 February 3, 2024 ASSETS Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 116,675 $ 125,428 Receivables, less allowance for credit losses 1 40,432 44,369 Merchandise inventories, net 690,291 684,502 Prepaid expenses 46,720 58,615 Other current assets 37,665 38,830 Total current assets 931,783 951,744 Fixed assets 2,233,558 2,173,015 Less accumulated depreciation (1,493,752) (1,356,648) Fixed assets, net 739,806 816,367 Operating lease right-of-use assets 1,328,398 1,384,050 Goodwill 980,064 980,297 Trade name 1,025,000 1,025,000 Other long-term assets 206,429 205,694 Total assets $ 5,211,480 $ 5,363,152 LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Current liabilities: Accounts payable and book overdrafts $ 447,673 $ 485,131 Accrued salaries and employee benefits 129,486 101,265 Accrued expenses and other liabilities 190,789 200,278 Current portion of operating lease liabilities 340,437 310,507 Current portion of long-term debt and other lease liabilities 5,294 15,962 Total current liabilities 1,113,679 1,113,143 Senior secured credit facilities, net, excluding current portion 1,576,856 1,576,223 Operating lease liabilities, excluding current portion 1,064,322 1,116,615 Deferred taxes, net 210,708 251,629 Other long-term liabilities 123,077 121,113 Total liabilities 4,088,642 4,178,723 Commitments and contingencies Stockholders' equity: Class A common stock 2 237 231 Class B-1 common stock 3 38 38 Class B-2 common stock 4 — — Preferred stock 5 — — Additional paid-in-capital 2,271,052 2,229,582 Accumulated deficit (1,135,221) (1,047,243) Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income (13,268) 1,821 Total stockholders' equity 1,122,838 1,184,429 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 5,211,480 $ 5,363,152 (1) Allowances for credit losses are $1,623 and $1,806, respectively (2) Class A common stock, $0.001 par value: Authorized - 1.0 billion shares; Issued and outstanding - 237.2 million and 231.2 million shares, respectively (3) Class B-1 common stock, $0.001 par value: Authorized - 75.0 million shares; Issued and outstanding - 37.8 million shares (4) Class B-2 common stock, $0.000001 par value: Authorized - 75.0 million shares; Issued and outstanding - 37.8 million shares (5) Preferred stock, $0.001 par value: Authorized - 25.0 million shares; Issued and outstanding - none PETCO HEALTH AND WELLNESS COMPANY, INC. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (In thousands) (Unaudited and subject to reclassification) 39 Weeks Ended November 2, 2024 October 28, 2023 Cash flows from operating activities: Net loss $ (87,979) $ (1,257,635) Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 149,414 148,593 Amortization of debt discounts and issuance costs 3,661 3,658 Provision for deferred taxes (35,629) (35,164) Equity-based compensation 40,705 64,431 Impairments, write-offs and losses on sale of fixed and other assets 8,449 2,202 Loss on partial extinguishment of debt — 920 Income from equity method investees (13,557) (10,032) Amounts reclassified out of accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income (3,035) 674 Goodwill impairment — 1,222,524 Non-cash operating lease costs 311,347Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed. Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Ordinary working citizens start to say, “Wait a minute, there is not enough left for my everyday expenses. The system needs to change.” Elections lead to the selection of politicians who want war, or who want to overturn the current system. The system then changes in a way that leads to less spending on healthcare and other complexities. if(window.innerWidthADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_atf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_atf" });';document.write(write_html);} In this post, I will try to explain a bit of the underlying problem and give some hints at what the simplification might look like. Part of the problem is too little energy supply. This is a problem that cannot be told to the public; it would be too distressing. In this post, I present the result of a recent academic study that has attempted to recalibrate the findings of the 1972 Limits to Growth study with updated data. Economies need both resources and human participants. Human populations tend to increase in number if conditions are favorable. When population grows, resources per capita, such as arable land and fresh water, tends to fall. Adding complexity helps an economy work around falling resources per capita. With added complexity, it is possible for resource extraction of many kinds to grow, at least for a time. Deeper wells can sometimes add more fresh water supply. Irrigation and fertilizer can be used to increase crop yields. International trade allows the possibility of getting resources from more distant lands. Adding debt allows factories to be built and to be paid for “after the fact,” using the sales of the goods produced by the factories. Ever-larger governments allow more roads, schools, and services of all kinds. The use of added complexity helps keep economies growing for a long time, but at some point, things start going wrong. Oil wells and other types of resource extraction become more expensive to build because the easiest to extract resources tend to be used first. Pollution becomes more of a problem. Universities start producing more graduates with advanced degrees than there are job openings paying enough to justify studying for those degrees. Healthcare costs become hugely expensive. Increasing interest on debt becomes a huge burden, both for governments and individual citizens. When added complexity reaches a limit, citizens sense a problem. They tend to vote the current governments out of power. Or they become rebellious in other ways. I think the world has already reached a complexity limit. When added complexity no longer has sufficient payback, the system seems to sense this and starts pushing economies in the opposite direction. Often, the wages of ordinary workers become too low, relative to the cost of living. They rebel and overthrow their governments. Or central governments may collapse, as the central government of the Soviet Union did in 1991. This happened after oil prices were low for an extended period. The Soviet Union was an oil exporter, depending on oil exports for tax revenue. Revenue from collectivized agriculture was underperforming, also. Thus, getting rid of a layer of government, or too many government programs, seems to be one common theme of simplification. Another issue today is international trade. Crude oil supplies per capita are low. Somehow, international trade (which uses crude oil) needs to be cut back. With inadequate total oil supplies available, it becomes very desirable to do manufacturing close to home, rather than at a distance. This is a major reason for the competition in manufacturing between the US and China. If the US can manufacture locally, it will provide jobs and save some of the limited world crude oil supply. Another issue is the oversupply of workers with advanced degrees, relative to the number of jobs requiring such degrees. A study released in early 2024 indicates that only about half of US college graduates are able to obtain a job requiring a college level degree within a year of graduation. In fact, the majority of those who cannot obtain a job requiring a college-level degree within a year after graduation remain underemployed 10 years after graduation. Pretty clearly, the number of college graduates needs to fall. I showed in Figure 1 that US healthcare costs are very high, but they have recently been on a plateau. Perhaps these high healthcare expenses might make sense if US life expectancies were longer than elsewhere, thanks to all this spending. In fact, US life expectancy at birth is lower than in any other advanced nation. The CIA Factbook ranks the US life expectancy as 49th from the top in 2024. Figure 3 (above) shows a chart I found several years ago, showing how US female life expectancy has been dropping, relative to other high-income countries. Figure 4 shows that US life expectancies have continued to fall relative to other advanced economies. Something is clearly going wrong with health in the United States. It is no wonder that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to “Make America Healthy Again.” There is also the question of the level of US healthcare spending, relative to GDP. The share for the US, from Figure 1, is about 17%. The shares for the EU, the UK, and Japan are each about 11% according to the World Bank. The share for Russia is about 7%; for China it is about 5%. Another issue mentioned in the introduction is the proportion of government spending that goes toward non-working individuals. The chart below shows how US Federal Government funds are spent. When the budget is prepared, often many of these programs are lumped together as “Mandatory Spending,” so we don’t see precisely what the spending is for. Typically, the arguments about spending are on the parts of the budget other than mandatory spending. The problem is that all parts need to be funded, one way or another. Social Security describes its program as largely pay as you go . Mostly, the payroll taxes collected from today’s workers are used to pay benefits to today’s recipients. Keeping the system working as it does today becomes a problem if the total amount of goods and services produced starts falling at some point. For example, if the total food supply at some point (say 2050) becomes too low, there is a question regarding which citizens should get inadequate food rations: the workers, or those receiving benefits under a pension program for the elderly. I would vote for the workers getting adequate food, if we expect them to continue to work. This issue suggests that at some point, the elderly may have to go back to work to get an adequate share of what is being produced. Donald Trump and his team clearly have a much different view of how the government should be operated than Joe Biden did. In particular, the new team would like to get rid of what they see as unneeded parts of the system. There seem to be many other parts of the world encountering somewhat similar political and funding difficulties. Germany is dealing with a collapse of government . France is facing political and budget crises . Even China’s economy is having huge difficulties . It is not only oil that is in short supply (Figure 2); coal is also in short supply, relative to world’s population (Figure 6). if(window.innerWidth ADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_btf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_btf" });`;document.write(write_html);} Uranium is in short supply, as well. The issue for uranium is that the world’s supply of nuclear warheads that could temporarily serve as a supplement to currently mined uranium is running short. These warheads belonged primarily to the US and to Russia, but Russia has sold a substantial amount of its warheads to the US, to be down-blended for use in nuclear power reactors. Without enough energy resources per person, the world will likely need to produce fewer goods and services in total. Some uses for energy products, and for the goods and services that can be made with energy products, need to disappear. Now, all parts of the world need to re-examine energy uses that are currently being made and look for uses that the economy can most easily get along without. For example, the step-down in oil consumption per capita that occurred in 2020 seems to be still having some effect. Some people are still working from home, saving oil that would be used for commuting. Some long-distance airline flights were eliminated, as well, particularly in Asia, reducing jet fuel consumption. The self-organizing economy tends to push the world in the direction of contraction. How this will work is not at all clear. Most people didn’t understand the response to Covid-19 as a way to cut back oil consumption. It is possible that future changes will, to some extent, come from cutbacks directed by government organizations that are as difficult to understand as the Covid-19 restrictions. The original 1972 analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. An article called, “ Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model ” by Arjuna Nebel and others was published earlier this year in the Journal of Industrial Ecology . The summary exhibit of their findings is shown here as Figure 8. On Figure 8, Recalibration23 is the name given to the new model output. The BAU dotted line shows the indications from the base (business as usual) 1972 model. I found the coloring a little confusing, so I added the labels “Industrial Output” and “Population” to better mark what I consider the two most important model outputs. Food Production per capita is the green line, which is also important. The calculations are all made in terms of the weight of physical quantities of materials used, for the world as a whole. The financial system is not modeled. We do not know how accurate a forecast such as this is. I know that Dennis Meadows, who was the leader of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, has said that once peak was reached, we could not expect the model to necessarily hold. Even with this caveat, I find this forecast disturbing. Industrial output per capita (which would include things like automobiles, farm machinery, and computers) is shown as already steeply declining by 2025 in the updated model. This trend is much clearer than in the 1972 model. By 2050, industrial output per capita is a small fraction of the amount it was at peak. Food output per capita is shown to start dropping about 2025. Based on my understanding of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, this change might reflect a shift away from meat-eating, rather than simply fewer total calories per person. World population follows a curve similar to that of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis with a peak in world population at perhaps about 2030. In the updated model, pollution has been modeled as CO2 levels. This is different from the mix of pollutants used in the original model. The peak comes around 2090. Figure 8 indicates that world industrial production is expected to be the first type of output to drop. This makes sense if energy supply is quite limited or is high-priced. Without adequate inexpensive energy supply, a country is likely to cut back on manufacturing its own goods. Instead, it tries to buy from countries with less expensive sources of energy supply. For example, US industrial production per capita has been falling since 1973. The year 1973 was the year when oil prices first spiked. US business leaders realized that changes were needed: A larger share of manufactured goods needed to be imported from countries with lower-cost fuel supply. Oil needed to be used sparingly because of its high cost. Coal, used heavily in Asia, was typically much cheaper. China took the lead in industrial production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but now it is running into obstacles. One issue is that China’s contribution to the world’s supply of goods is taking away high-paying jobs from other countries. Other countries are left with more low-paying service jobs. A second issue is that the US has become dependent upon China for critical materials, such as those used in military armaments. A third issue is that a great deal of China’s growth was financed by debt. As long as China’s exports were growing very rapidly, this was not a problem. But as growth has slowed, China’s debt has become difficult to repay with interest . The level of conflict between China and other countries has grown, in part because it has become clear that it is not possible for industry to grow rapidly both in China and elsewhere, indirectly because of fossil fuel and uranium limits. The US applies sanctions against some Chinese companies and China retaliates by hoarding scarce resources. These include minerals such as antimony, tungsten, gallium, germanium , graphite, and magnesium. The world is increasingly operating in a “not enough to go around” mode for scarce resources. At the same time, countries need to somewhat get along. So we get strange narratives in the press giving rationalizations for actions by both sides, without mentioning the shortage issue. Figure 8 shows that once industrialization drops, food production also begins to fall, but not as quickly. This makes sense because everyone recognizes that food is essential. The falling calories likely reflect people increasingly moving from meat to vegetable products. Somehow, world population becomes poorer, but the level of population does not drop nearly as rapidly as the drop in industrialization. These are a few ways simplification might take place: [a] High level government organizations might start disappearing . For example, the European Union might not get enough funding and would stop. Or something similar could happen to the International Monetary Fund or the World Trade Organization. [b] Programs that we expect to be funded by the US Federal Government might be handed over completely to the states , to be funded or not, as the finances of individual states permit. Examples might include Medicare, Medicaid, and even Social Security. [c] There could be major banking problems , perhaps simultaneously in many countries around the world. The debt bubble holding up stock markets could pop. Governments would try to compensate, but they might not be able to do enough. Or governments could inadvertently create hyperinflation if there is virtually nothing to buy with the newly printed money created to offset widespread bank failures. [d] There could be a great deal more sharing of homes and of apartments. The current arrangement of many single people living alone, either in an apartment or a stand-alone house could be replaced by many more roommate situations. Multi-generational families living together may become more common. [e] Healthcare may become much simpler and local. Instead of seeing an array of specialists at a distance, people may walk to a local health provider. Medications from around the world are likely to drop greatly in quantity. Government programs to care for the seriously disabled elderly seem likely to be scaled back. [f] Universities may be slimmed down greatly . There is no point in educating a huge number of individuals who cannot get jobs requiring a university degree. [g] The huge amount of effort that goes into taking care of lawns in the US may disappear . Instead, people will put more effort into growing crops locally. Some people may choose to raise chickens, as well. [h] International travel for pleasure will likely disappear, except perhaps for the very rich. Even business trips will become very uncommon. The amount of goods and services transported internationally seems likely to shrink. [i] Many types of optional activities that now take place by car may be replaced by more local versions, which will be reached by walking, or perhaps by bicycle. For example, visits to restaurants may largely disappear, but eating with nearby friends or relatives in homes may increase. Visits to churches may drop greatly, as they did during Covid-19 restrictions, but they may be replaced by groups meeting in homes. Gyms for recreation may disappear, but people may obtain more exercise from their gardens and their need to walk to appointments. [j] Very strange political leaders may take office. One person rule takes much less energy than transporting many representatives to a central location. Some of these leaders may take over as dictators. By Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World More Top Reads From Oilprice.comMax Verstappen chasing fourth straight F1 title in Vegas
Liberty gains 419 on the ground with 4 touchdowns in a 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky
Dollar General Tests Same-Day Delivery Amid Shifts in Customer BehaviorLYNCHBURG, Va. (AP) — Quinton Cooley rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns, Billy Lucas added 131 yards and a score, and Liberty gained 419 on the ground with four touchdowns in a 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky on Saturday. Liberty (8-2, 5-2 Conference USA) has won eight-plus games for the sixth consecutive season to keep alive hopes of a second straight trip to the conference championship game. The Flames play Sam Houston (8-3, 5-2) on Friday. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings. Get any of our free email newsletters — news headlines, obituaries, sports, and more.
Impact on U.S. domestic natural gas prices—among the lowest in the world—would remain negligible WASHINGTON , Dec. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On their current trajectory, growing exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) would support nearly half a million domestic jobs annually and contribute $1.3 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product through 2040 while having a negligible impact on domestic gas prices, according to a new comprehensive study by S&P Global. The study projects U.S. LNG export capacity to double over the next five years under a Base Case that takes into account current conditions, including impacts from the 2024 pause of pending decisions on exports of LNG to non-free trade agreement countries. In addition to the projected sizeable jobs and GDP gains, future export activity is anticipated to generate more than $2.5 trillion in total revenues for U.S. businesses, $166 billion in federal and state tax revenues and more than $500 billion in labor income. "The emergence of the U.S. LNG industry has placed the United States in the pole position with global demand for gas expected to grow through 2040 alongside the rapid growth of renewables," said Daniel Yergin , Vice Chairman, S&P Global. "Continued growth in U.S. LNG capacity would have outsized impact in terms of jobs, GDP and labor income. In addition to domestic economic benefits, being the world's leading LNG supplier adds a new dimension to U.S. influence abroad. It was U.S. LNG that replaced nearly half of Russia gas supply to Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine ." The study, Major New U.S. Industry at a Crossroads: A U.S. LNG Impact Study leverages the combined expertise of the S&P Global Commodity Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence divisions to provide a comprehensive and forward-looking assessment of the projected impacts of LNG exports on the U.S. economy. It compares Base Case findings—utilizing S&P Global's proprietary "Inflections" scenario—to those under an Extended Halt Scenario where no new or currently paused U.S. LNG capacity comes online. The study is the first in a two-part series. A future companion study will conduct a global greenhouse gas emissions impact analysis (including methane) to quantify expected emissions under the two study scenarios and will expand the economic analysis to include regional and supply chain impacts. LNG has emerged as a major U.S. industry in less than a decade and made the United States the world's leading supplier. Exports of LNG already support more than 270,000 U.S. jobs annually and have generated more than $400 Billion in GDP and more than $800 billion in total revenues for domestic businesses since exports began in 2016. Export revenues from U.S. LNG already exceed those of U.S. soybeans, are twice that of the nation's movie and television exports and half those of U.S semiconductors. At the same time, most of the U.S. gas supply—nearly 90%—remains available for domestic consumption and natural gas prices for U.S. households continue to be among the lowest in the world. "U.S. gas production has more than tripled compared to the amount of LNG that the country exports," said Eric Eyberg , Vice President, Gas and Power Consulting, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "That abundant supply has allowed LNG exports to support more than 270,000 jobs annually and contribute more than $400 Billion to GDP to date with no major impact to domestic prices." However, if new or currently halted LNG capacity does not come online, the repercussions would be substantial, the study finds. Under the study's Extended Halt Scenario: An annual average of 100,000+ jobs would be at risk $250+ billion contributions to GDP would go unrealized $491 billion in lost revenues for U.S. businesses $110 billion in lost labor income $34 billion forgone federal and state tax revenues Restricting future LNG capacity would have little to no benefit in terms of U.S. natural gas prices either, the study finds. The difference between the two study scenarios in terms of average annual gas costs for U.S. households (2025-2040) would be less than 1%. If future U.S. capacity were not to materialize, other countries would seek to fill the gap, the study says. Qatar , Canada and Mozambique would be expected to accelerate their own projects to claim market share. Other countries, including Russia , would likely add capacity as well. In total, the study estimates that 85% of the supply deficit under the Extended Halt Scenario would be made up by fossil fuels from non-U.S. sources. "The economic consequences to ceding the U.S. position in LNG would be stark, but it goes far beyond that," said Carlos Pascual , Senior Vice President for Global Energy and International Affairs, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Such a move would diminish U.S. geopolitical influence as a reliable and affordable energy supplier to allies and trading partners, as a key source for expanding energy access in developing countries and—by providing a replacement for coal in baseload power generation—an important catalyst to global decarbonization efforts." About the Study: Major New U.S. Industry at a Crossroads: A U.S. LNG Impact Study is available at: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/major-new-us-industry-at-a-crossroads-us-lng-impact-study-phase-1 This study offers an independent and objective assessment of the economic, market and global impact of the U.S. LNG Industry built from a detailed bottom-up approach, at the asset and market level, technology by technology. It represents the collaboration of S&P Global Commodity Insights and the Global Intelligence and Analytics unit within S&P Global Market Intelligence supported by the world's largest expert team of more than 1,400 energy research analysts and consultants continuously monitoring, modelling and evaluating markets and assets. The analysis and metrics developed during the course of this research represent the independent analysis and views of S&P Global. The study makes no policy recommendations. This research was supported by the US Chamber of Commerce. S&P Global is exclusively responsible for all of the analysis, content and conclusions of the study. Media Contacts: Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com About S&P Global S&P Global SPGI provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. View original content to download multimedia: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/expected-growth-of-us-lng-exports-to-support-nearly-500-000-jobs-annually-and-add-1-3-trillion-to-united-states-gross-domestic-product-through-2040--new-sp-global-study-finds-302334107.html SOURCE S&P Global © 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved."He brought so much joy": Village People vocalist backs Trump's "Y.M.C.A." use
Avery Lake has a story to tell and is excited for the public to hear it once their debut album drops on Dec. 20. The Abbotsford artist has had a deep connection with nature for most of their life, originating from their childhood growing up in the Alps before eventually moving out to Abbotsford and its Pacific Northwest landscape. Now Lake has explored this love of the natural world while also contrasting it with the journey of technological progress in the new seven-track "Singular Dust" album. "Singular Dust is a meditation on the pulse that connects all things – nature, humanity, and the tools we create," said Lake. "It’s about tracing that rhythm, from the first murmur of life to the increasingly complex world we inhabit today. Crafted with a spirit of experimentation, the album embraces innovative creative tools that mirror its themes of singularities." All seven of the songs included on this album follow a narrative arc that begins with the concept of the creation of life concept and continues through to the future of humanity as the organic continues to blend together with the synthetic. When "Singular Dust" releases on Dec. 20, it will be available on all major music streaming sites, including both Spotify and Apple Music. More information on Avery Lake can be found at .
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