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Trump promises to end birthright citizenship: What is it and could he do it?Facebook X Email Print Save Story Over the weekend, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia as opposition forces took over the capital of Damascus, ending an uprising that had begun in 2011 and killed hundreds of thousands of people, and displaced millions. Assad’s regime had appeared to have gained the upper hand after receiving significant military support from Iran and Russia. But with his allies tied down with conflicts against Israel and Ukraine, respectively, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), a rebel group once affiliated with Al Qaeda under its former name, Al Nusra Front, marched with stunning speed across Syria’s major cities. To understand what this turn of events means for Syria’s neighbors and how the country might achieve a semblance of normalcy, I recently spoke by phone with Emile Hokayem, the director of regional security and a senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who has written extensively on Syria for almost two decades. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we also discussed the internal dynamics that led the Assad regime to decline, why Assad’s onetime regional enemies remain concerned, and what the rebels who overthrew the government really want. Over the past forty-eight hours, we’ve seen people celebrating Assad’s fall, but what are you most concerned about right now and why? I think everyone’s concern has to do with the factionalism that has pervaded not just the opposition, but Syria. The regime itself was as fractured as the opposition has been in the past. Syria has a Kurdish population, and ISIS is still rearing its ugly head in the eastern desert. So some part of the country was unified for a long time around Assad because he seemed like the lowest common denominator. But that became part of the reason he fell. The opposition became relatively more united because it had one enemy to rally against. Now we are essentially going back to a competition for power, for territory, for legitimacy. And that is going to be the difficult task here—to rise above that. But I don’t think we should be cynical. Just because it was hard in the past and that it didn’t succeed elsewhere doesn’t mean that the Syrians will fail. There is a strong argument for optimism here based on the fact that this was in a way a purely Syrian victory, or a Syrian solution to a Syrian problem. This was not an international or a regionally backed effort that led to the demise of Assad. That it was a bottom-up process may actually serve to reduce some of these divisions. Specifically, the fact that we have avoided the so-called Qaddafi moment—that essentially Bashar al-Assad was not captured and killed, which happened with Qaddafi in a pretty gruesome way—could serve to diffuse tensions. Had we had a Qaddafi moment, I think the way it would’ve played into the Syrian confessional universe would have been worrisome, and that would’ve been the overwhelming image. Because it would have been the majority religious group, Sunnis, murdering someone—even if he might deserve it—someone from a minority sect, in this case the Alawites? Exactly. In a way, yes, it’s sad that he escaped, and there’s certainly going to be very, very legitimate calls for justice. But avoiding this violent culmination of that process—although there is still violence and I’m not whitewashing what’s happening—and not having that one moment, the one picture that crystallizes all the fears, does help. You said that this was a Syrian solution to a Syrian problem. Does that imply that you think the role of Turkey in supporting this group, H.T.S., is overstated? Certainly. Turkey is the big geopolitical winner, but I think we need to provide some context there. First, Turkey is not a direct sponsor of H.T.S. It is actually the sponsor to another coalition called the Syrian National Army, which brought remnants of other groups together. And if anything, H.T.S., although it comes from a radical jihadist past, has actually been quite disciplined in this space and in recent years has avoided some of the extreme behavior that Turkish-supported groups like the S.N.A. have not. I would argue the S.N.A. is a more problematic force in this regard. I don’t believe, and a number of other analysts don’t believe, that Turkey masterminded the march to Damascus from Day One. I think the Turks had in mind limited achievements in and around Aleppo. The rebels wanted to push further, but the Turks were on board for a limited operation. It’s just that the speed at which things happened, the momentum that the rebels gathered, essentially overtook initial calculations. I think that this march and this frenetic advance is largely due to momentum that the rebels themselves were a bit surprised about. But more fundamentally, and I think this is the key factor, it exposed the hollowness and the rot of the Assad regime. The loyalist constituencies of Assad decided that it wasn’t worth fighting. Why? Because Assad defeated his enemies, and they stopped posing an existential threat to him. But there were no victory dividends the day after, and that really hurt his constituency. He won, but there were no positive returns economically. Who was his constituency? It was a very diverse one that included Alawite individuals and clans that have benefitted from the regime and served in key security functions. But it extended to a senior Sunni officer corps, and to a large section of the Sunni urban, élite middle class, upper class. It included members of minorities: Armenians, Christians, others. It was a disparate coalition that supported him first and foremost because he was the rampart against Islamists, broadly defined. And they shed a lot of blood for him. They suffered profoundly, and they justified Assad’s murderous campaign in the previous decades. But these constituencies, and their economic and social fortunes, declined since victory was achieved. Assad did not have the mind-set, did not have the plan, did not have the resources to make things better, including for his constituency. If anything, his regime grew more predatory, more rapacious, more violent in the past few years. It never regained cohesion. It never regained a sense of purpose. There’s an argument being made that the most important foreign backers of Assad, such as Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, withdrew their support or weren’t able to provide the same levels of support, and that caused the regime to collapse. I assume you think that’s part of the reason, but it also seems like you’re saying something distinct. Look, I don’t deny the significant contribution that the weakening of Iran and the overstretch of Russia had in all this. But the speed at which the regime forces collapsed and the total absence of those popular militias which had rallied in the past and the fact that Assad did not have a narrative mattered. He did not appear once on television in the past ten days. All this points to the utter hollowness of his regime and the fact that it had essentially lost the support of all these constituencies that were key to survival during the prior iteration of that war, between 2011 and 2017. I don’t think one can understand what happened if one ignores that significant dynamic. So yes, there’s certainly a geopolitical context for all this, but there is Syrian agency. There are local conditions that have allowed this to happen the way it did happen. And keep in mind the economic collapse, and the fact that they lost access to the Lebanese economy. Is that because of international sanctions on Syria, or because of various problems in Lebanon? In part, it’s sanctions, but more important it’s the collapse of the Lebanese financial sector and economy since 2019. And that was essentially Syria’s economic lung. They were trading through Lebanon, they were money laundering through Lebanon, they were putting their savings in Lebanon. What signals are you reading for hope and concern? I assume the most obvious one is just how non-Sunni groups are going to be treated. The first point I would make is that this war hasn’t ended just yet. Just because the large cities have been liberated from Assad’s control should not make us forget that on Sunday there was fighting in northern Syria between the S.N.A. and the Kurds. Yesterday, the U.S. bombed more than seventy-five ISIS positions in the eastern desert and the Israelis expanded their control of the Golan Heights and bombed a number of facilities. And importantly, a number of Assad’s militias have now retreated to the coastal areas, and there is a fear that they can still defend themselves. A lot of them are hardened men who have fought in the past and are very worried about their future. So the potential for more violence does exist. And it’s not the day after; we’re not there yet. There is a lot in flux. The second point is that some of the rebel factions are quite disciplined. And it’s clear that H.T.S., led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has developed the language, has talked about policy positions, and wants to come across as the mature party. I don’t want to whitewash their record. It may change, and one should not be naïve about these groups. But the key thing is to see whether stability and order can be brought to the large cities quickly. If you have large-scale chaos in Damascus or Homs or Aleppo, one is going to struggle to put some kind of political process on track. There is the question of whether there’s anything from the past ten years of political negotiations that can be put on the table. There were a lot of initiatives, including one by the U.N. to define a new constitution for Syria, to include Syria’s massive diversity. Are there ready-made plans or ideas that can be deployed? And with a group like H.T.S., which is listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and others—Julani himself is considered a terrorist by the U.S. and others—how are they brought into the tent? Orchestrating that choreography where you need to bring in the remnants of the regime, too, will be complex. It does require regional support, but at a time when Europe is exhausted, Russia is on the back foot, the U.S. is going through a transition and Trump has already said the U.S. should have nothing to do with Syria, the multilateral system is battered. So who orchestrates that? Is it going to be Turkey leading? And, if Turkey leads, will the others accept? Is Turkey going to think about this in terms of just the stabilization of Syria or as part of its power play with Iran and Russia? How are the Sunni states thinking about Assad’s fall? Because they were broadly supportive of getting rid of Assad for a while, and then they were concerned about ISIS. And then it seemed like Assad had won and they reached out to him. In a way, there’s a sweet irony. Ten years ago, many of the Arab states wanted Assad gone and the Syrians were divided. Now most of the Syrians want Assad gone, but most of the Arab states wanted him to stay. Not because they loved him, but because prior attempts had failed, the cost was significant, and because the region is on fire. So a number of countries basically were telling themselves, We don’t want yet another crisis on our hands. Everyone recognizes Syria is a central geopolitical theatre. Because of its geography, Syria is pivotal. Not because it has great strength or a booming economy or plenty of resources. It’s purely a question of geography. Syria is a theatre in which at any one day, the U.S., Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli militaries are operating. Can you think of another place in the world that has this variety of large important militaries engaging in operations, plus jihadis? The reality is that the region is stunned by what happened. I just spent a couple of days with Middle Eastern officials, very senior ones, and I can tell you they’re struggling. They had written Syria off. Most of them wanted to normalize with Assad because they made very flawed assumptions about Syria. And they’re not the only ones. The Italians had decided to normalize with Assad and had sent an ambassador for the first time back to Damascus last month. But they got Syrian society wrong. And, when you see the reaction in the main cities, it’s mostly positive about that change. So now all these states have to figure out: Who are these new players in Syria? And importantly, these new players will feel that they don’t owe foreigners much. You know, in the previous round there was international support, but there was also international abandonment after the chemical-weapons attack. That’s what’s so important for Syrians now—they did it themselves, so they don’t owe the region much. You said Syria is so important because all these outside actors have decided to make it central to their interests. But is that because there’s something unique about the place, or just because the geopolitics of the past twenty years happened to lead to this outcome? I think it’s important because of its geography, because of all the borders it has with so many significant states; because it’s where Turkish-Arab competition plays out, where Arab and Iranian competition plays out, where Israel is keen on asserting its security interests and so on. And increasingly, it’s because of Syria’s role as a hub for migration and for drug-trafficking and for terrorism. It’s not necessarily intrinsically about Syria and Syrians; it’s about Syria as this hub for a lot of negative dynamics. Just to be clear, I’m offering you a geopolitical reading. It’s also important for Syrians. One thing that has not come up much in this conversation is that the Gulf states and Israel are happy that this is a defeat for Iran. Do you think that element has been overstated? These actors had all preferred a weak, deterrable Assad over this traumatic transformation. The U.S. really was not planning on that change. If anything, its policy was moving toward limited reëngagements. The Gulf states wanted to turn the page on political transformations in the Arab world. And Israel was fine with Assad as long as it could fly over Syria, bomb anything it wanted, and not be challenged. Are they pleased that Iran is weakened? Yes. Syria is central to Iran’s position in the region, to the resupply of Hezbollah. So this is a monumental setback for Iran, in part because it had already spent so much money and shed so much blood saving Assad the first time only to see this investment essentially disappear. And I suspect, in Iran, there’s a lot of introspection about the cost of supporting all these weak actors. So Iran is definitely weakened, but Iran has been resilient in the past. What happens depends on how the Iranians absorb that shock, whether there is a recognition in Iran that actually the axis of resistance is not that popular, that it actually sits on weak societies and weak states—which means that it’s not real power at the end of the day, and that these are costly endeavors. But also these actors have posed a very high risk to Iran. If Hamas starts something, and that ends up in a potential Israel-U.S.-Iran war with exchanges of missiles, that’s not what the Iranians wanted. So you support those militia partners, thinking that they amplify your influence, and in fact, they entangle you in crises that you struggle to keep up with. And that’s where the Iranians are. ♦ New Yorker Favorites A man was murdered in cold blood and you’re laughing ? The best albums of 2024. Little treats galore: a holiday gift guide . How Maria Callas lost her voice . An objectively objectionable grammatical pet peeve . 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Raphinha scores 2 and Barcelona ends Spanish league slump with 5-1 rout of MallorcaCHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — The Charlotte Hornets will be without point guard LaMelo Ball for at least two weeks because of a strained left calf. Ball felt discomfort in his calf after Wednesday night’s loss to the Miami Heat and did not play against the New York Knicks on Friday. The team said he will be reevaluated on Dec. 11, which is two weeks from the date of the original injury. Ball has been hot for the Hornets, averaging 40.3 points in his last four games. He is averaging a career-best 31.1 points and 4.7 3-pointers per game for the season, which ranks second in the NBA. He also is averaging 5.4 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.1 steals in 18 starts. Ball has had a history of injury problems, mostly to his ankles, since coming to the league as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft. The only Hornets player to ever receive a max contract extension, Ball has played in just 202 games with 182 starts in five seasons. The team also said guard Tre Mann’s lower back soreness has been diagnosed as a disk irritation. His absence from the lineup began on Nov. 23 against Milwaukee. He will continue his rehabilitation and be reevaluated in two weeks. “They are competitors and they want to be out there on the court to compete and hoop, but they also want to be out there for their teammates,” Hornets coach Charles Lee said prior to Saturday night's game against the Atlanta Hawks. "I just walked past ’Melo as I was coming in here to do media, and he’s like, ‘I’m going to take care of everything I need to do on this return to play program and I’m going to attack it with the right mindset.’ I have all the confidence in the world in our performance staff and in those guys.” AP NBA: https://apnews.com/hub/NBANEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks tiptoed to more records amid a mixed Tuesday of trading, tacking a touch more onto what’s already been a stellar year so far. The S&P 500 edged up by 2 points, or less than 0.1%, to set an all-time high for the 55th time this year. It’s climbed in 10 of the last 11 days and is on track for one of its best years since the turn of the millennium. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 76 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite added 0.4% to its own record set a day earlier. AT&T rose 4.6% after it boosted its profit forecast for the year. It also announced a $10 billion plan to send cash to its investors by buying back its own stock, while saying it expects to authorize another $10 billion of repurchases in 2027. On the losing end of Wall Street was U.S. Steel, which fell 8%. President-elect reiterated on social media that he would not let Japan’s Nippon Steel take over the iconic Pennsylvania steelmaker. announced plans last December to buy the Pittsburgh-based steel producer for $14.1 billion in cash, raising concerns about what the transaction could mean for unionized workers, supply chains and U.S. national security. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden also the acquisition. Tesla sank 1.6% after a judge in Delaware reaffirmed a previous ruling that the electric car maker must The judge denied a request by attorneys for Musk and Tesla’s corporate directors to vacate her ruling earlier this year requiring the company to rescind the unprecedented pay package. All told, the S&P 500 rose 2.73 points to 6,049.88. The Dow fell 76.47 to 44,705.53, and the Nasdaq composite gained 76.96 to 19,480.91. In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady after a report showed U.S. at the end of October than a month earlier. Continued strength there would raise optimism that the economy could remain out of a recession that many investors had earlier worried was inevitable. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.23% from 4.20% from late Monday. Yields have seesawed since Election Day amid worries that Trump’s preferences for and could spur along with economic growth. But traders are still confident the will at its next meeting in two weeks. They’re betting on a nearly three-in-four chance of that, according to data from CME Group. Lower rates can give the economy more juice, but they can also give inflation more fuel. The key report this week that could guide the Fed’s next move will arrive on Friday. It’s the , which will show how many workers U.S. employers hired and fired during November. It could be difficult to parse given how much storms and strikes distorted figures in October. Based on trading in the options market, Friday’s jobs report appears to be the biggest potential market mover until the Fed announces its next decision on interest rates Dec. 18, according to strategists at Barclays Capital. In financial markets abroad, the value of South Korea’s currency fell 1.1% against the U.S. dollar following a frenetic night where and then later said he’d lift it after lawmakers voted to reject military rule. Stocks of Korean companies that trade in the United States also fell, including a 1.6% drop for SK Telecom. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9% to help lead global markets. Some analysts think Japanese stocks could end up benefiting from Trump’s threats , including for goods . Trade relations between the U.S. and China took another step backward after China said it is banning exports to the U.S. of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications. The counterpunch came swiftly after the U.S. Commerce Department expanded the list of Chinese technology companies to include many that make equipment used to make computer chips, chipmaking tools and software. The newly included in the so-called “entity list” are nearly all based in China. In China, stock indexes rose 1% in Hong Kong and 0.4% in Shanghai amid unconfirmed reports that Chinese leaders would meet next week to discuss planning for the coming year. Investors are hoping it may bring fresh stimulus to help spur growth in the world’s second-largest economy. In France, the CAC 40 rose 0.3% amid continued worries about , where the government is battling over the budget. AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.
I never panic, but I'm panicking now
VIDEO: Silvertips down Vancover GiantsDillon Gabriel was faced with a quandary when he arrived at Oregon this year. Gabriel had worn No. 8 at Oklahoma before transferring for his sixth season of eligibility. But in Eugene, that number had special significance because it had been worn by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. There were many similarities between the two: They were both dual-threat quarterbacks who had piled up accolades along with yards and touchdowns. Both hailed from Hawaii and were shaped by the island spirit. Mariota chose the No. 8 initially because of the number of Hawaiian islands. His helmet's facemask was formed in an 808, Hawaii's area code. So Gabriel took a leap of faith and texted Mariota to ask his permission. Mariota, now with the NFL's Washington Commanders, said yes. "You know, when you’re growing up and you have that kind of direct example, a guy from Hawaii, playing at a high level, at the DI level, and then you see him go to the NFL, it’s like you can see it, you can believe it,” Gabriel said. Gabriel has led the top-ranked Ducks (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) through an undefeated season and on to the Big Ten title game on Saturday against No. 4 Penn State (11-1, 8-1) in Indianapolis. Gabriel — who played his first three years at Central Florida before joining the Sooners — became the all-time NCAA leader for total career touchdowns along the way and now has 183, including 149 via pass, 33 via rush and one reception. He's tied with former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix — now with the Denver Broncos — with an FBS-record 61 career starts. Ever humble, Gabriel is thoughtful about the arc of his career. "I think we’re in an interesting time that’s all about results. And so many people talk about the process but aren’t patient enough. I think if you look at my body of work, I’m a guy who’s eager and wants to get better but has had that time to develop and work in that way. I think you see it over time," Gabriel said. As a Duck, Gabriel has thrown for 3,277 yards and 24 TDs in 12 games. He's rushed for seven more scores. Mariota spent his three-year college career at Oregon, throwing for 104 touchdowns and running for 29 more. He was the Ducks' quarterback in the 2014 season, the last time Oregon advanced to the national championship game. "I mean, everybody would love to run out there with the experience that we have at quarterback right now,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. “And I think that experience shows up consistently every Saturday for us. More than anything, just the ability for Dillon to be calm within the chaos that exists in a football game, and being a great decision-maker and understanding the scheme.” The only other time Oregon finished the regular season 12-0 was in 2010, when the Ducks played for the BCS national championship. Among the team's victories this season was a 32-31 win at home over Ohio State and a 38-17 victory over Michigan at the Big House. The Ducks capped the season with a 49-21 victory over rival Washington , finishing 9-0 in their first Big Ten year. Gabriel threw for a pair of touchdowns and ran for another in that game. The Nittany Lions advanced to the conference title game with a 44-7 victory over Maryland on Saturday. They were helped by Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Michigan in Columbus. Oregon has played the Nittany Lions just one other time, in the 1995 Rose Bowl. Penn State, led by Joe Paterno, won that one, 38-20. The winner in Indianapolis this weekend can secure a first-round bye in the expanded 12-team playoffs. Both teams are assured of a playoff berth even with a loss. On Tuesday, Gabriel added another honor when he was named Big Ten offensive player of the year. "He’s earned the trust and the admiration of all his teammates and the coaches around him," Lanning said. "This guy prepares extremely hard. He is the calmest dude you’ve ever been around on the field, which is impressive, but I’m really proud of him and what he’s been able to do for this team.” Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 all the season. Sign up here . AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-footballNationwide voter education roadshow starting Dec 2
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For the fourth straight season, the Michigan Wolverines topped rival Ohio State with a 13-10 victory in Columbus. Michigan’s win over the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes is a signature victory for first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, who succeeded former head coach Jim Harbaugh, who left to take the Los Angeles Chargers head-coaching job after leading the Wolverines to a national championship in January. Saturday’s win seemingly meant more to unranked Michigan, which not only picked up its seventh win of the year but also likely dealt a death-blow to OSU’s College Football Playoffs chances as well. Defeating the Buckeyes is the biggest win of Moore’s career, and he promptly celebrated by mocking some OSU fans in waning seconds of the game, waving bye to them as the clock ticked down — a gesture that didn’t sit right with many people on social media who expressed their dislike for how Moore conducted himself. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Sherrone Moore waves goodbye to Ohio State fans after that Ohio State play pic.twitter.com/N6EtxiEa2h “Stay classy Michigan,” one fan remarked . “Shows no class. Are you surprised?” quipped another . “Immature head coach haha? That’s like grad assistant action,” one user chimed in . “Not exactly a classy man handing winning well,” another added . “Act like you been there. You’re a grown ass man,” another fan wrote . “Michigan deserved the win, but handled the victory with no class, as usual,” one fan proclaimed .Scottish artist Jasleen Kaur who put doily on a car wins Turner Prize 2024