(Bloomberg) -- Investors have a challenge in betting on the usual stock market rally that tends to arrive after a presidential election: With the S&P 500 Index on track for one of its best ever starts to a year, history can’t be a guide this time. Most Read from Bloomberg NYC's Underground Steam System May Be Key to a Greener Future NYC Gets Historic Push for 80,000 Homes With $5 Billion Pledge In Kansas City, a First-Ever Stadium Designed for Women’s Sports Takes the Field Trump Promises Could Have Seismic Impact on Washington Economy NYC Mayor Adams Names Jessica Tisch to Lead Police Head Amid Probes Buying US stocks into year-end following a vote is the classic trading playbook. Historically, the S&P 500 has posted a median return of 5% from Election Day in November to the end of the year, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. Even the riskiest pockets like small-capitalization companies typically catch a bid in the rising tide. But this is hardly a classic election year. The S&P 500 is up 25% in 2024 after leaping 24% in 2023, putting the index on pace for its first back-to-back years of more than 20% gains since the late 1990s. As a result, share prices are high, with the S&P 500 trading at more than 22 times projected 12-month earnings, compared with an average reading of 18 in the last decade. And positioning data shows traders are already heavily invested in equities. Meanwhile, familiar foes from the past few years, rising bond yields and the threat of persistent inflation, loom in the background. All of which has the stock market set up for a potentially quiet holiday season — as opposed to the ragers of election years past. “With valuations elevated and the S&P 500 already near 6,000, the market will creep higher from here,” said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners. “But I don’t see a big year-end rally because rising yields will keep investors at bay.” No Hurry The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates twice since September. But recently, central bankers indicated that they aren’t in a hurry to go further. At the same time, Treasury yields have jumped to multi-month highs after US president-elect Donald Trump’s election victory ignited bets that his economic plans like large import tariffs and mass deportations of low-wage undocumented workers could stoke inflation and hurt growth, possibly reducing the Fed’s scope to cut interest rates. This explains why Wall Street strategists have been dialing back their rate reduction expectations since Trump’s election victory. The six months from November to April are historically the best part of the year for US equities because companies and pension plans tend to increase their stock buying starting on Nov. 1, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. However, those year-end rallies typically aren’t as robust when the S&P 500 has already risen at least 20%. In that case, since the 1970s the average return from now to Dec. 31 has been roughly 1%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Of course, this bull-market rally has gone far beyond these levels, with the S&P 500 up almost 70% since bottoming in October 2022. That will curb gains into late December, according to Savita Subramanian, head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Corp. “Sentiment and positioning based on at least five indicators have grown dangerously bullish, leaving less room for positive surprises,” she wrote in a note to clients on Nov. 15. Heavy Hedging Already, some of the riskiest parts of the market are showing signs of weakness. Small-cap stocks, for instance, have erased most of their post-election rally as concern grows about the Fed’s rate path. And uncertainty over higher borrowing costs is prompting investors to hedge against sharp declines. Demand for far out-of-the-money put options on the S&P 500, technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index and small-cap Russell 2000 Index has risen to levels last seen during the heavy volatility ahead of the election, according to Kevin Brocks of 22V Research. That said, the rally isn’t necessarily in jeopardy simply because there’s growing speculation that the market has run too far. Valuations and investor sentiment can stay frothy for weeks — even months — before stocks suffer a significant drop, said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Bank Plc, adding that there are “very few reasons to suggest a year-end rally has already been front-loaded.” Indeed, investors keep funneling money into stocks: They put $16.4 billion into US equities in the week through Nov. 20, marking the seventh consecutive weekly inflow, according to a Bank of America note citing EPFR Global data. The optimism isn’t entirely surprising. Looking at history, the S&P 500’s advance over the past two years isn’t even half of the 143% average gain in the 16 prior bull runs since 1945, according to Birinyi Associates. What investors most want to see when judging the rally’s strength is the gains broadening beyond the megacap tech that have been powering indexes higher on enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. It’s starting to happen, as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the regular market-cap weighted version of the benchmark since Election Day, with financials, energy and consumer discretionary shares leading the way. In the end, however, it may be the bond market that sends the loudest signal for stock prices. If Treasury yields stay high and the Fed stands pat, there are serious risks to betting on significant further gains in equities. “A broadening rally is crucial but the one thing standing in the way of a strong advance for stocks the rest of the year is the bond market,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “That may ultimately put a lid on a hefty year-end rally.” --With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich. 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NEW YORK (AP) — Police don't know who he is, where he is, or why he did it. As the frustrating search for UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson’s killer got underway for a fifth day Sunday, investigators reckoned with a tantalizing contradiction: They have troves of evidence, but the shooter remains an enigma. One conclusion they are confident of, however: It was a targeted attack , not a random one. They know he ambushed Thompson at 6:44 a.m. Wednesday as the executive arrived at the Hilton for his company’s annual investor conference, using a 9 mm pistol that resembled the guns farmers use to put down animals without causing a loud noise. They know ammunition found near Thompson’s body bore the words “delay,” “deny” and “depose,” mimicking a phrase used by insurance industry critics . The fact that the shooter knew UnitedHealthcare group was holding a conference at the hotel and what route Thompson might take to get there suggested that he could possibly be a disgruntled employee or client, NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said. Over the weekend, police divers were seen searching a pond in Central Park, where the killer fled after the shooting. Officers have been scouring the park for days for any possible clues and found his backpack there Friday. They didn’t immediately reveal what, if anything, it contained but said it would be tested and analyzed. Early Sunday afternoon, police declined to comment on the contents of the backpack, or on the results of the search in the pond, saying no updates were planned. The bag’s apparent manufacturer did not immediately respond to questions from The Associated Press. Investigators have urged patience, saying the process of logging evidence that stands up in court isn’t as quick as it looks like on TV . Hundreds of detectives are combing through video recordings and social media, vetting tips from the public and interviewing people who might have information, including Thompson’s family and coworkers and the shooter’s randomly assigned roommates at the Manhattan hostel where he stayed. Investigators caught a break when they came across security camera images of an unguarded moment at the hostel in which he briefly showed his face. Retracing the gunman’s steps using surveillance video, police say, it appears he left the city by bus soon after the shooting outside the New York Hilton Midtown. He was seen on video at an uptown bus station about 45 minutes later, Kenny said. With the high-profile search expanding across state lines, the FBI announced late Friday that it was offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to an arrest and conviction, adding to a reward of up to $10,000 that the NYPD has offered. Police say they believe the suspect acted alone. Police distributed the images to news outlets and on social media but so far haven’t been able to ID him using facial recognition — possibly because of the angle of the images or limitations on how the NYPD is allowed to use that technology, Kenny said. Late Saturday, police released two additional photos of the suspected shooter that appeared to be from a camera mounted inside a taxi. The first shows him outside the vehicle and the second shows him looking through the partition between the back seat and the front of the cab. In both, his face is partially obscured by a blue, medical-style mask.Fire Razes Multi-Million-Naira Property At LAUTECH Hospital
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Kaitlyn Dever sparks romance rumors with Ethan Dawes as they hold hands on night out in West Hollywood Have YOU got a story? Email tips@dailymail.com By JACQUELINE LINDENBERG FOR DAILYMAIL.COM Published: 19:11, 7 December 2024 | Updated: 19:57, 7 December 2024 e-mail 6 shares View comments Kaitlyn Dever has sparked dating rumors with Ethan Dawes during a night out in West Hollywood on Thursday. The Booksmart actress, 27 - whose mother Kathy passed away in February following a lengthy battle with breast cancer - stopped by the Brunello Cucinelli dinner with the actor at the iconic Chateau Marmont. As the pair left the event, Dever and Dawes were seen holding hands as they prepared to head to their next destination. Kaitlyn glammed up wearing a semi-sheer, gold sequin dress that clung to her frame and slipped into closed-toed, tan heels. She additionally layered the look with a black, leather coat and allowed her brunette locks to flow down past her shoulders in light waves. Dever opted for minimal accessories to allow her outfit to be the main focal point, and added a pair of dainty earrings for a finishing touch. Kaitlyn Dever, 27, has sparked dating rumors with Ethan Dawes during a night out in West Hollywood on Thursday Dawes - who is also known for directing projects such as the series Chicken Girls - opted for a monochromatic ensemble for the evening. He sported a classic black suit which was paired with a plain, black shirt underneath. Ethan completed the outfit by wearing a pair of black loafers. Read More Olivia Wilde's sweet reunion with Kaitlyn Dever at the opening of a new Michael Kors store in LA The two stars were seen strolling hand-in-hand down a walkway outside of the Chateau Marmont, and at one point, held small smiles on their faces. The special dinner on Thursday saw a number of other celebrity guests in attendance, such as Sharon Stone, Kevin Costner and Shanina Shaik. Kaitlyn - who has been nominated for both Emmy and Golden Globe Awards - has remained mostly private about her personal life. But earlier this year in February, the actress revealed that her mother, Kathy, had passed away at the age of 53 following a 14-year battle with stage 4 metastatic breast cancer in a heartbreaking post on Instagram. Along with sharing an assortment of photos of her mother over the years, the star wrote, 'My mama. My life. My everything. I don’t even have the words.' 'Nothing I'll ever say will amount to the gifts you have given me in my life, the boundless joy you brought, the deep, endless, unconditional love you gave me and our family. Your love was everywhere.' As the pair left the event, Dever and Dawes were seen holding hands as they prepared to head to their next destination Dever later compared her mother's love to 'sunshine' and added, 'You were everyone's favorite. You are my favorite. The sweetest in the world.' 'I will be broken forever without you and I don't know how I'll go on,' she emotionally continued. Referencing to her siblings, Kaitlyn wrote, 'I'm grateful that you gave me Mady, Jane, and Dad...we'll always have each other to lean on because of you. You were the greatest mom and wife anyone could ever ever ask for.' 'Thank you for fighting so hard for us for so long. I am forever, forever, grateful for the special time we got to spend with you, sweet mama...it will never be enough.' 'I miss your smile, your sense of humor, your hugs, your kisses, getting to hold your hand, more than anything in the world. You made everything better,' the actress continued. 'My sweetest, beautiful girl. My best friend Oh how much I love you. What a gift it is to love you. I love you forever and ever, Mom. ❤️.' Dever has since uploaded additional tributes to her late mother and earlier this week, wished Kathy a 'heavenly birthday' on Instagram. The actress has been keeping busy and will appear in a number of upcoming projects next year. Earlier this year in February, the actress revealed that her mother, Kathy, had passed away at the age of 53 following a 14-year battle with stage 4 metastatic breast cancer Kaitlyn was cast in the second season of HBO Max's hit series, The Last Of Us, and portrays the character of Abby - a skilled soldier Other stars that will appear in the upcoming season include Pedro Pascal, Bella Ramsey, Gabriel Luna, Rutina Wesley, Isabela Merced, Young Mazino, Catherine O'Hara and also Jeffrey Wright; Pascal and Ramsey seen above She was cast in the second season of HBO Max's hit series, The Last Of Us, and portrays the character of Abby - a skilled soldier. According to an official description, she is 'a skilled soldier whose black-and-white view of the world is challenged as she seeks vengeance for those she love.' Other stars that will appear in the upcoming season - which will premiere sometime in 2025 - include Pedro Pascal, Bella Ramsey, Gabriel Luna, Rutina Wesley, Isabela Merced, Young Mazino, Catherine O'Hara and also Jeffrey Wright. The character of Abby prompted differing reactions from players of the video game - with co-creator Neil Druckmann sharing in the past that he had received death threats. Isabela Merced - who is playing the role of Dina in the show - stated on the Happy Sad Confused podcast that Kaitlyn 'had to be extra secured by security when it came to the filming of this.' 'There's so many strange people in this world because there are people that actually genuinely hate Abby, who is not a real person. Just a reminder: Not a real person.' Dever also took on a leading role in the upcoming Netflix limited series titled, Apple Cider Vinegar, which is slated to drop on the streaming site in 2025 - although an exact date has yet to be revealed. In the show, the actress plays Belle Gibson - an Australian wellness influencer 'who claims to have cured her terminal brain cancer through health and wellness,' per a synopsis on Netflix's Tudum website . 'As it turns out, Belle has never actually been diagnosed with - or cured of - the malignant brain tumor that she shares with the world through social media, the mobile app she develops, and its companion cookbook.' Along with Kaitlyn, other stars that were cast in the project include Alycia Debnam-Carey, Aisha Dee, Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Mark Coles Smith, Ashley Zukerman, and Susie Porter. Dever also took on a leading role in the upcoming Netflix limited series titled, Apple Cider Vinegar, which is slated to drop on the streaming site in 2025 - although an exact date has yet to be revealed; seen in October in NYC In 2022, she won the Hollywood TV Critics Association Award for Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series and or Movie for her performance in Dopesick (seen above) Last month, a first look of the limited drama series was released - but Dever's Australian accent left fans divided. One fan on X said that her delivery was 'wrong' and added, 'It's not bad, but the way she delivered the lines in that trailer make it sound a bit like she was having to think about it too hard, the cadence isn't natural.' Another typed out that, 'There are plenty of Australian actors who would have done a much better job.' However, others came to the star's defense with one penning, 'This is a fine Australian accent.' 'It's just for the wrong age group, region and social class. Gibson has a really distinct "desperate striver from just outside Brisbane" accent.' Dever is known for appearing in an assortment of projects, such as Booksmart, Dopesick and Ticket To Paradise. In 2022, she won the Hollywood TV Critics Association Award for Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series and or Movie for her performance in Dopesick. Kaitlyn Dever Instagram Share or comment on this article: Kaitlyn Dever sparks romance rumors with Ethan Dawes as they hold hands on night out in West Hollywood e-mail 6 shares Add commentSyrian insurgents reach the capital's suburbs. Worried residents flee and stock up on supplies
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