‘India has skill, innovation, technology need for...’: PM Modi in KuwaitWhat would happen minute-by-minute if a SUPERFLARE with the force of billions of atomic bombs hit Earth READ MORE: Earth is 'overdue' a devastating solar SUPERFLARE scientists warn By WILIAM HUNTER Published: 04:26 EST, 28 December 2024 | Updated: 04:26 EST, 28 December 2024 e-mail 2 View comments While it might look like a tranquil yellow ball from here, the sun is actually a raging inferno of intense magnetic forces and violent explosions. So, although all life on Earth depends on the Sun to survive, it may one day be the thing that destroys us. Scientists have recently warned that Earth is well overdue for a solar 'superflare' - a stellar explosion containing the energy of billions of atomic bombs. When this happens, power grids will be damaged, satellites will fall from orbit, and the destruction of undersea cables could trigger an 'internet apocalypse'. From the superflare's eruption from the sun, Earth will have just eight minutes before the first wave of radiation slams into the atmosphere. However, the worst will still be yet to come as a vast wave of plasma and magnetic fields follows close behind, causing havoc for the planet's electrical system. The last time Earth was hit by a blast on this scale was during the 1859 Carrington Event, which was strong enough to give electric shocks to telegraph operators and set sheets of paper alight. But experts now say that the planet could soon be hit by a solar flare more than 100 times more powerful and far more devastating. Your browser does not support iframes. What is a superflare? A solar flare is a huge explosion on the sun's surface which releases a huge amount of stored energy in a very short time. These occur when magnetic fields become 'twisted' above cool patches of the sun's surface called sunspots. Within minutes these tangled fields heat material to many millions of degrees before snapping into a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to X-rays and gamma rays. However, that burst of energy is only part of the problem, since large solar flares are often accompanied by events called coronal mass ejections. Professor Sean Elvidge, an expert on space weather from the University of Birmingham , told MailOnline: 'Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on the other hand, are huge clouds of charged solar plasma and magnetic fields hurled into space. 'They move more slowly often taking one to three days to reach Earth, but can cause significant geomagnetic disturbances once they interact with our planet’s magnetic field.' A so-called superflare is simply a particularly large solar flare capable of releasing one octillion joules of energy - that is one followed by 27 zeros. Earth is overdue for a devastating superflare which could wipe out communication systems and knock satellites out of orbit, scientists have warned (stock image) Superflare timeline 00:00 Superflare erupts on the sun 00:08 A wave of X-ray and high-intensity ultraviolet radiation hits Earth triggering radio blackouts. 00:30 Energetic particles trigger a radiation storm, exposing astronauts to a deadly dose of ionising radiation. 16:00 The coronal mass ejection hits Earth, creating a geomagnetic storm. This will lead to blackouts and disrupt global internet connections. 17:00 Increased atmospheric drag starts to pull satellites out of orbit. 40:00 The geomagnetic storm subsides. Time in minutes and hours since the superflare. Advertisement Previously, scientists had estimated that Earth would only experience one of these once every thousand to ten thousand years. However, a recent study suggested that these events may occur as often as once every century. Given that a superflare hasn't hit Earth since 775 AD, we are well overdue for a run-in with one of these dangerous explosions. So, if a superflare were to explode on the sun's surface, here's what would happen minute by minute. Eight minutes since the superflare Since electromagnetic radiation moves at the speed of light, we would only have eight minutes from the moment the flare bursts until we experience the first effects. Dr Erika Palmerio, a research scientist at Predictive Science, told MailOnline: 'From the flare we get radiation and solar energetic particles and those are the first things that are coming to us because they are the fastest.' As this initial wave of X-rays and intense ultraviolet radiation arrives, it creates a build-up of electrons in a layer of the atmosphere called the ionosphere. A superflare would release the energy of several billion atomic bombs and transmit one octillion joules of energy, one followed by 27 zeros. The first wave of X-ray radiation would hit Earth in eight minutes, causing widespread radio blackouts (stock imiage) Those electrons interfere with radio signals moving around the planet, scrambling and decaying any messages humans might be trying to send. That means the first sign a superflare had hit would be a sudden and total radio blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. Dr Palmerio says: 'That can be problematic if there is a disaster back on Earth, for example, a hurricane, since all those rescue teams communicate through radio.' However, that lack of communication will become particularly dangerous when we consider what is still to come. 30 minutes since the superflare Travelling just behind the solar flare's first flash of radiation, the next thing to arrive would be a cloud of ionising high-energy particles. Dr Palmerio says: 'We have these solar particles which are launched by the flare and then accelerated as the CME moves through the lower atmosphere of the sun. 'They're not as fast as X-rays, but these particles are very energetic so within tens of minutes we can have a solar radiation storm.' 30 minutes after the superflare a radiation storm would hit Earth, exposing astronauts on the International Space Station (pictured) to a deadly dose of radiation Down on the ground, we're unlikely to see any impact from this radiation storm since the charged particles will be directed away by the Earth's magnetic field. However, passengers or crew on commercial flights are very likely to receive a substantially increased dose of radiation. This would be especially dangerous for anyone flying near the poles where the charged particles would be most concentrated. But the biggest risks of all would be faced by astronauts out beyond the protection of the atmosphere. Anyone on the International Space Station (ISS) would be in real danger of receiving a deadly dose of ionising radiation as the radiation storm batters the planet. Nor is this threat hypothetical since NASA astronauts have very nearly been killed by solar flares in the past. In August 1972, Earth was hit by one of the worst solar storms in recorded history, knocking out long-distance communications across some US states. Dr Palmerio says: 'In that year we had the Apollo 16 mission in April and then Apollo 17 in December. With radio blackouts on Earth, astronauts might not have time to receive a warning. But if they can, they would have about 30 minutes to either evacuate or shelter in a shielded area of the station 'It's been estimated that had that storm happened during one of those two launches, it would have been life-threatening for the astronauts.' Additionally, since NASA uses radio frequencies to communicate with the ISS, astronauts might have no warning at all before receiving a deadly dose of radiation. 16 hours since the superflare So far, most of the superflare's effects have been limited to the upper atmosphere. But now as the wave of charged plasma and magnetic fields which make up the CME roll towards Earth, things are about to become significantly worse. Professor Elvidge says: 'A strong CME usually takes between one and three days to reach Earth. 'The exact timing depends on its initial speed and the conditions of the interplanetary environment, but travel times of around 36 to 48 hours are often typical for significant events.' However, this is no typical event and in the case of a superflare we may have far less time to prepare. Solar flares can release large amounts of stellar material in events called Coronal Mass Ejections (pictured). The fastest CMEs can hit Earth just 15-16 hours after the solar flare erupts 'The fastest we have seen travel around 3,000 km/s and can reach the Earth in less than a day,' says Professor Elvidge. The fastest CME on record, the August 1972 event, took just 14.6 hours to reach Earth after leaving the sun. Leaving a generous window, we might have only 16 hours between realising a flare has happened and the CME hitting. When it does arrive, it is this part of the superflare that is likely to cause the most long-lasting damage. Professor Elvidge says: 'As a CME arrives, its interaction with Earth’s magnetic field can generate geomagnetic storms.' These vast fluctuations in the magnetic field induce strong electrical currents in any long piece of metal on Earth including the wires in the power grids. These power fluctuations can trip safety systems leading to regional outages or cascade failures and even set fire to the insulation surrounding electrical transformers. As the CME hits the Earth's magnetic field it creates a charge which induces a strong current in power grids on the ground. These surges could cause widespread blackouts around the world What is the solar cycle? The solar cycle is the cycle that the sun's magnetic field goes through about every 11 years. The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or when the Sun has the least sunspots. The middle of the solar cycle is the solar maximum, or when the Sun has the most sunspots. The current solar cycle, numbered 25, started in 2019 and is expected to continue until about 2030, but the solar maximum is now expected in early 2024. Advertisement One study estimates that a flare on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event could leave 20 to 40 million people in the US without power for up to two years. On the scale of a superflare, that could mean blackouts and power failures around the entire world lasting for years to come. But the problems won't be limited to the power grid, since some researchers also believe that a superflare could lead to an 'internet apocalypse'. While local internet connections have largely shifted over to non-conductive fibre optic cables, the subsea internet cables which join up the world are still made of copper. These cables are equipped with repeaters every 30 to 90 miles (50-150km) to boost the signal over long distances which are very vulnerable to the effects of a solar flare. If just one of these repeaters fails, the entire cable is rendered useless until it can be repaired. That means that a failure rate of just one per cent would mean almost 15 per cent of subsea cables would be rendered useless. This could cut entire parts of the globe off from the internet and take years to repair. A recent study suggests that a solar storm could damage the undersea cables which provide the backbone of the internet. This could lead to entire parts of the world losing connection 17 hours since the superflare Unfortunately for everyone on Earth, global power failures and the destruction of the internet are really just the start of the problems. One of the biggest risks of a solar flare hitting Earth is that it will have a devastating effect on the network of satellites we use to communicate, navigate, and monitor the Earth. Outside the protection of the atmosphere, satellites will be buffeted by all of the worst impacts of the solar Tsunami. Professor Elvidge says: 'Satellites might be affected almost as soon as the storming begins. 'Increased radiation can disrupt onboard electronics, degrade solar panel efficiency, and interfere with communication and navigation signals.' With an exceptionally large storm like a superflare, this could cause serious damage to systems we are extremely reliant on. However, the real problems will begin about an hour later as the CME causes the atmosphere to warm and expand. If a solar flare hits it will cause serious damage to our orbiting communications and GPS satellites. An hour after the CME arrives, satellites will begin to experience increased atmospheric drag and slip from their orbits This plunges satellites in low-Earth orbit into a denser region of the atmosphere than they are used to moving through. That increased drag slows down a satellite and deteriorates its orbit, slowly pulling it back down to Earth. 'Depending on the CME’s intensity and a satellite’s resilience, these disruptions can last from a few hours to several days,' says Professor Elvidge. While most satellites won't necessarily plummet to Earth, even small issues can lead to big problems since sensitive navigation systems are set to work at a certain altitude. And with every satellite around Earth simultaneously falling towards the ground, significant disruption is almost inevitable. Months and years afterwards Depending on the alignment of the CME's magnetic fields, the worst of the geomagnetic storm should subside between 10 and 24 hours after it began. However, the lingering effects of the superflare could take months or years to fade. Scientists demonstrate how observations of the rate of decrease of the Sun’s dipole magnetic field can be usefully combined with sunspot observations to predict when the ongoing cycle would peak. Their analysis suggests that the maximum of solar cycle 25 is most likely to occur in early 2024 Geomagnetic storms can cause dazzling aurora displays to appear at unusually low latitudes (pictured) but they can also damage sensitive computer equipment around the world, creating disruption that could take years to repair Professor Alan Woodward, a computer security expert from the University of Surrey, told MailOnline: 'You could get effects in the national grid but, probably more importantly, you'd also get them in delicate electronics like computers. 'As a result, you'd have a lot of equipment that suddenly wouldn't work properly.' In the case of a superflare, Professor Woodward says this wouldn't just be big things like your laptop but all the devices which make our modern world possible. Professor Woodward says: 'Think of your phone or the industrial control systems that are controlling traffic lights and heating systems, anything that uses computing could be damaged and cause a massive amount of disruption. Read More EXCLUSIVE Physicist warns more powerful solar eruptions could hit Earth in 2025 - the worst in 165 years 'When you start looking at it, you suddenly realise how unbelievably dependent we are on modern communication. 'Commerce, personal life, certain ways of working, certain ways of living; that would literally disappear.' For humanity to recover, this would mean replacing all the damaged computer components while dealing with the fallout of massive power failures and the potential collapse of the internet. And with every nation on Earth simultaneously competing for the same computer parts, that process could take months or years to complete. SOLAR STORMS PRESENT A CLEAR DANGER TO ASTRONAUTS AND CAN DAMAGE SATELLITES Solar storms , or solar activity, can be divided into four main components that can have impacts on Earth: Solar flares : A large explosion in the sun's atmosphere. These flares are made of photons that travel out directly from the flare site. Solar flares impact Earth only when they occur on the side of the sun facing Earth. Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) : Large clouds of plasma and magnetic field that erupt from the sun. These clouds can erupt in any direction, and then continue on in that direction, plowing through solar wind. These clouds only cause impacts to Earth when they're aimed at Earth. High-speed solar wind streams : These come from coronal holes on the sun, which form anywhere on the sun and usually only when they are closer to the solar equator do the winds impact Earth. Solar energetic particles : High-energy charged particles thought to be released primarily by shocks formed at the front of coronal mass ejections and solar flares. When a CME cloud plows through solar wind, solar energetic particles can be produced and because they are charged, they follow the magnetic field lines between the Sun and Earth. Only charged particles that follow magnetic field lines that intersect Earth will have an impact. While these may seem dangerous, astronauts are not in immediate danger of these phenomena because of the relatively low orbit of manned missions. However, they do have to be concerned about cumulative exposure during space walks. This photo shows the sun's coronal holes in an x-ray image. The outer solar atmosphere, the corona, is structured by strong magnetic fields, which when closed can cause the atmosphere to suddenly and violently release bubbles or tongues of gas and magnetic fields called coronal mass ejections The damage caused by solar storms Solar flares can damage satellites and have an enormous financial cost. The charged particles can also threaten airlines by disturbing Earth's magnetic field. Very large flares can even create currents within electricity grids and knock out energy supplies. When Coronal Mass Ejections strike Earth they cause geomagnetic storms and enhanced aurora. They can disrupt radio waves, GPS coordinates and overload electrical systems. A large influx of energy could flow into high voltage power grids and permanently damage transformers. This could shut off businesses and homes around the world. Source: NASA - Solar Storm and Space Weather Graphics Nasa Earth Share or comment on this article: What would happen minute-by-minute if a SUPERFLARE with the force of billions of atomic bombs hit Earth e-mail Add comment
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Global Tourism Professionals Gather in Ho Chi Minh City for HOTLIST 2024 to Discuss Next-Gen Travel and Sustainable Destination Management: New updates you need to knowWASHINGTON (AP) — After several weeks working mostly behind closed doors, Vice President-elect returned to Capitol Hill this week in a new, more visible role: Helping try to get his most contentious Cabinet picks to confirmation in the Senate, where Vance has served for the last two years. Vance arrived at the Capitol on Wednesday with former Rep. Matt Gaetz and spent the morning sitting in on meetings between Trump’s choice for attorney general and key Republicans, including members of the Senate Judiciary Committee. The effort was for naught: amid scrutiny over sex trafficking allegations and the reality that he was unlikely to be confirmed. Thursday morning Vance was back, this time accompanying Pete Hegseth, the “Fox & Friends Weekend” host whom Trump has tapped to be the next secretary of defense. Hegseth also has faced allegations of sexual assault that he denies. Vance is expected to accompany other nominees for meetings in coming weeks as he tries to leverage the two years he has spent in the Senate to help push through Trump’s picks. Vice President-elect JD Vance, still a Republican senator from Ohio, walks from a private meeting with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., center, and Vice President-elect JD Vance, left, walk out of a meeting with Republican Senate Judiciary Committee members, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis) FILE – Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, departs the chamber at the Capitol in Washington, March 15, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File) FILE – Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, center speaks during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File) FILE – Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, right, speaks with Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, before testifying at a hearing, March 9, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf, File) FILE – Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, arrives for a classified briefing on China, at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File) FILE – Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, arrives for a vote on Capitol Hill, Sept. 12, 2023 in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File) FILE – Sen. JD Vance R-Ohio speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File) Vice President-elect JD Vance, still a Republican senator from Ohio, walks from a private meeting with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) The role of introducing nominees around Capitol Hill is an unusual one for a vice president-elect. Usually the job goes to a former senator who has close relationships on the Hill, or a more junior aide. But this time the role fits Vance, said Marc Short, who served as Trump’s first director of legislative affairs as well as chief of staff to Trump’s first vice president, Mike Pence, who spent more than a decade in Congress and led the former president’s transition ahead of his first term. ”JD probably has a lot of current allies in the Senate and so it makes sense to have him utilized in that capacity,” Short said. Unlike the first Trump transition, which played out before cameras at Trump Tower in New York and at the president-elect’s golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, this one has largely happened behind closed doors in Palm Beach, Florida. There, a small group of officials and aides meet daily at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort to run through possible contenders and interview job candidates. The group includes Elon Musk, the billionaire who has spent so much time at the club that Trump has joked he can’t get rid of him. Vance has been a constant presence, even as he’s kept a lower profile. The Ohio senator has spent much of the last two weeks in Palm Beach, according to people familiar with his plans, playing an active role in the transition, on which he serves as honorary chair. Vance has been staying at a cottage on the property of the gilded club, where rooms are adorned with cherubs, oriental rugs and intricate golden inlays. It’s a world away from the famously hardscrabble upbringing that Vance documented in the memoir that made him famous, “Hillbilly Elegy.” His young children have also joined him at Mar-a-Lago, at times. Vance was photographed in shorts and a polo shirt playing with his kids on the seawall of the property with a large palm frond, a U.S. Secret Service robotic security dog in the distance. On the rare days when he is not in Palm Beach, Vance has been joining the sessions remotely via Zoom. Though he has taken a break from TV interviews after months of constant appearances, Vance has been active in the meetings, which began immediately after the election and include interviews and as well as presentations on candidates’ pluses and minuses. Among those interviewed: Contenders , as Vance wrote in a since-deleted social media post. Defending himself from criticism that he’d missed a Senate vote in which one of President Joe Biden’s judicial nominees was confirmed, Vance wrote that he was meeting at the time “with President Trump to interview multiple positions for our government, including for FBI Director.” “I tend to think it’s more important to get an FBI director who will dismantle the deep state than it is for Republicans to lose a vote 49-46 rather than 49-45,” Vance added on X. “But that’s just me.” While Vance did not come in to the transition with a list of people he wanted to see in specific roles, he and his friend, Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., who is also a member of the transition team, were eager to see former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. find roles in the administration. Trump ended up , a powerful position that sits atop the nation’s spy agencies and acts as the president’s top intelligence adviser. And he chose Kennedy to , a massive agency that oversees everything from drug and food safety to Medicare and Medicaid. Vance was also a big booster of Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, In another sign of Vance’s influence, James Braid, a top aide to the senator, is expected to serve as Trump’s legislative affairs director. Allies say it’s too early to discuss what portfolio Vance might take on in the White House. While he gravitates to issues like trade, immigration and tech policy, Vance sees his role as doing whatever Trump needs. Vance was spotted days after the election giving his son’s Boy Scout troop a tour of the Capitol and was there the day of leadership elections. He returned in earnest this week, first with Gaetz — arguably Trump’s most divisive pick — and then Hegseth, of sexually assaulting a woman in 2017, according to an investigative report made public this week. Hegseth told police at the time that the encounter had been consensual and denied any wrongdoing. Vance hosted Hegseth in his Senate office as GOP senators, including those who sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee, filtered in to meet with the nominee for defense secretary. While a president’s nominees usually visit individual senators’ offices, meeting them on their own turf, the freshman senator — who is accompanied everywhere by a large Secret Service detail that makes moving around more unwieldy — instead brought Gaetz to a room in the Capitol on Wednesday and Hegseth to his office on Thursday. Senators came to them. Vance made it to votes Wednesday and Thursday, but missed others on Thursday afternoon. Vance is expected to continue to leverage his relationships in the Senate after Trump takes office. But many Republicans there have longer relationships with Trump himself. Sen. Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican, said that Trump was often the first person to call him back when he was trying to reach high-level White House officials during Trump’s first term. “He has the most active Rolodex of just about anybody I’ve ever known,” Cramer said, adding that Vance would make a good addition. “They’ll divide names up by who has the most persuasion here,” Cramer said, but added, “Whoever his liaison is will not work as hard at it as he will.” Cramer was complimentary of the Ohio senator, saying he was “pleasant” and ” interesting” to be around. ′′He doesn’t have the long relationships,” he said. “But we all like people that have done what we’ve done. I mean, that’s sort of a natural kinship, just probably not as personally tied.” Under the Constitution, Vance will also have a role presiding over the Senate and breaking tie votes. But he’s not likely to be needed for that as often as was Kamala Harris, who since Republicans will have a bigger cushion in the chamber next year.NoneA fateful night in Monterey: Drinking, conservative banter, sexual assault allegations