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Stocks closed higher on Wall Street as the market posted its fifth straight gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched another record high. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%. The benchmark index’s 1.7% gain for the week erased most of its loss from last week. The Dow rose 1% as it nudged past its most recent high set last week, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.2%. Markets have been volatile over the last few weeks, losing ground in the runup to elections in November, then surging following Donald Trump's victory, before falling again. The S&P 500 has been steadily rising throughout this week to within close range of its record. It's now within about 0.5% of its all-time high set last week. “Overall, market behavior has normalized following an intense few weeks,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a statement. Several retailers jumped after giving Wall Street encouraging financial updates. Gap soared 12.8% after handily beating analysts' third-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, while raising its own revenue forecast for the year. Discount retailer Ross Stores rose 2.2% after raising its earnings forecast for the year. EchoStar fell 2.8% after DirecTV called off its purchase of that company's Dish Network unit. Smaller company stocks had some of the biggest gains. The Russell 2000 index rose 1.8%. A majority of stocks in the S&P 500 gained ground, but those gains were kept in check by slumps for several big technology companies. Nvidia fell 3.2%. Its pricey valuation makes it among the heaviest influences on whether the broader market gains or loses ground. The company has grown into a nearly $3.6 trillion behemoth because of demand for its chips used in artificial-intelligence technology. Intuit, which makes TurboTax and other accounting software, fell 5.7%. It gave investors a quarterly earnings forecast that fell short of analysts’ expectations. Facebook owner Meta Platforms fell 0.7% following a decision by the Supreme Court to allow a multibillion-dollar class action investors’ lawsuit to proceed against the company. It stems from the privacy scandal involving the Cambridge Analytica political consulting firm. All told, the S&P 500 rose 20.63 points to 5,969.34. The Dow climbed 426.16 points to 44,296.51, and the Nasdaq picked up 42.65 points to close at 2,406.67. European markets closed mostly higher and Asian markets ended mixed. Crude oil prices rose. Treasury yields held relatively steady in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.41% from 4.42% late Thursday. In the crypto market, bitcoin hovered around $99,000, according to CoinDesk. It has more than doubled this year and first surpassed the $99,000 level on Thursday. Retailers remained a big focus for investors this week amid close scrutiny on consumer spending habits headed into the holiday shopping season. Walmart, the nation's largest retailer, reported a quarter of strong sales and gave investors an encouraging financial forecast. Target, though, reported weaker earnings than analysts' expected and its forecast disappointed Wall Street. Consumer spending has fueled economic growth, despite a persistent squeeze from inflation and high borrowing costs. Inflation has been easing and the Federal Reserve has started trimming its benchmark interest rates. That is likely to help relieve pressure on consumers, but any major shift in spending could prompt the Fed to reassess its path ahead on interest rates. Also, any big reversals on the rate of inflation could curtail spending. Consumer sentiment remains strong, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. It revised its latest figure for November to 71.8 from an initial reading of 73 earlier this month, though economists expected a slight increase. It's still up from 70.5 in October. The survey also showed that consumers' inflation expectations for the year ahead fell slightly to 2.6%, which is the lowest reading since December of 2020. Wall Street will get another update on how consumers feel when the business group The Conference Board releases its monthly consumer confidence survey on Tuesday. A key inflation update will come on Wednesday when the U.S. releases its October personal consumption expenditures index. The PCE is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and this will be the last PCE reading prior to the central bank's meeting in December.First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) to Issue Quarterly Dividend of $0.22
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CHEYENNE – The November 2024 issue of the Cheyenne Economic Indicators report is available at the state of Wyoming's Economic Analysis Division website, ai.wyo.gov/divisions/economic-analysis . This report contains the Cheyenne Economic Health Index (ChEHI), a coincident economic indicator designed to provide an overall assessment of Laramie County's economy. Highlights from this month's issue include: Get any of our free email newsletters — news headlines, sports, arts & entertainment, state legislature, CFD news, and more.None
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The U.S. Navy is transforming a costly flub into a potent weapon with the first shipborne hypersonic weapon, which is being retrofitted aboard the first of its three stealthy destroyers. The USS Zumwalt is at a Mississippi shipyard where workers have installed missile tubes that replace twin turrets from a gun system that was never activated because it was too expensive. Once the system is complete, the Zumwalt will provide a platform for conducting fast, precision strikes from greater distances, adding to the usefulness of the warship. The USS Zumwalt is seen at the Huntington Ingalls shipyard Nov. 21 in Pascagoula, Miss. “It was a costly blunder. But the Navy could take victory from the jaws of defeat here, and get some utility out of them by making them into a hypersonic platform,” said Bryan Clark, a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute. The U.S. has had several types of hypersonic weapons in development for the past two decades, but recent tests by both Russia and China have added pressure to the U.S. military to hasten their production. People are also reading... Hypersonic weapons travel beyond Mach 5, five times the speed of sound, with added maneuverability making them harder to shoot down. Last year, The Washington Post reported that among the documents leaked by former Massachusetts Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira was a defense department briefing that confirmed China had recently tested an intermediate-range hypersonic weapon called the DF-27. While the Pentagon previously acknowledged the weapon’s development, it had not recognized its testing. One of the U.S. programs in development and planned for the Zumwalt is the “Conventional Prompt Strike.” It would launch like a ballistic missile and then release a hypersonic glide vehicle that would travel at speeds seven to eight times faster than the speed of sound before hitting the target. The weapon system is being developed jointly by the Navy and Army. Each of the Zumwalt-class destroyers would be equipped with four missile tubes, each with three of the missiles for a total of 12 hypersonic weapons per ship. In choosing the Zumwalt, the Navy is attempting to add to the usefulness of a $7.5 billion warship that is considered by critics to be an expensive mistake despite serving as a test platform for multiple innovations. The USS Zumwalt is seen at the Huntington Ingalls shipyard Nov. 21 in Pascagoula, Miss. The Zumwalt was envisioned as providing land-attack capability with an Advanced Gun System with rocket-assisted projectiles to open the way for Marines to charge ashore. But the system featuring 155 mm guns hidden in stealthy turrets was canceled because each of the rocket-assisted projectiles cost between $800,000 and $1 million. Despite the stain on its reputation, the three Zumwalt-class destroyers remain the Navy’s most advanced surface warship in terms of new technologies. Those innovations include electric propulsion, an angular shape to minimize radar signature, an unconventional wave-piercing hull, automated fire and damage control and a composite deckhouse that hides radar and other sensors. The Zumwalt arrived at the Huntington Ingalls Industries shipyard in Pascagoula, Mississippi, in August 2023 and was removed from the water for the complex work of integrating the new weapon system. It is due to be undocked this week in preparation for the next round of tests and its return to the fleet, shipyard spokeswoman Kimberly Aguillard said. A U.S. hypersonic weapon was successfully tested over the summer and development of the missiles is continuing. The Navy wants to begin testing the system aboard the Zumwalt in 2027 or 2028, according to the Navy. The U.S. weapon system will come at a steep price. It would cost nearly $18 billion to buy 300 of the weapons and maintain them over 20 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Critics say there is too little bang for the buck. “This particular missile costs more than a dozen tanks. All it gets you is a precise non-nuclear explosion, some place far far away. Is it really worth the money? The answer is most of the time the missile costs much more than any target you can destroy with it,” said Loren Thompson, a longtime military analyst in Washington, D.C. US Navy intercepts Houthi missiles aimed at American ships in Gulf of Aden The U.S. Navy intercepted Houthi missiles and drones targeting two warships and three merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden. But they provide the capability for Navy vessels to strike an enemy from a distance of thousands of kilometers — outside the range of most enemy weapons — and there is no effective defense against them, said retired Navy Rear Adm. Ray Spicer, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute, an independent forum focusing on national security issues, and former commander of an aircraft carrier strike force. Conventional missiles that cost less aren’t much of a bargain if they are unable to reach their targets, Spicer said, adding the U.S. military really has no choice but to pursue them. “The adversary has them. We never want to be outdone,” he said. The U.S. is accelerating development because hypersonics have been identified as vital to U.S. national security with “survivable and lethal capabilities,” said James Weber, principal director for hypersonics in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Critical Technologies. “Fielding new capabilities that are based on hypersonic technologies is a priority for the defense department to sustain and strengthen our integrated deterrence, and to build enduring advantages,” he said. Rising Costs Hit Military Families Hard: Here’s How You Can Help Rising Costs Hit Military Families Hard: Here’s How You Can Help Image Credit: Jacob Lund / Shutterstock The financial challenges facing U.S. military households are a significant concern throughout the year. Holidays such as Memorial Day, Armed Forces Day, or Veterans Day highlight the ongoing struggles that service members face, particularly amid rising costs for everyday essentials. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey shows a troubling trend: Military personnel and their families are finding it more difficult to cover basic household expenses such as food, housing, and transportation than the average American. Our analysis examines how service members are faring in today’s economy compared to civilian households, highlighting the states where military families report the greatest challenges in managing their finances. As we enter Giving Season, we’ve also highlighted meaningful ways to support service members and their families through charitable contributions, offering an opportunity to make a direct impact on those who serve our nation. Financial Challenges Facing Service Members Service members are struggling more financially than the average American. Image Credit: Upgraded Points According to recent Household Pulse Survey data, members of the armed services are experiencing financial strain at higher rates than the general U.S. population. Over 40% of service members report difficulty covering their usual household expenses, compared to 36.6% of all U.S. adults. The data also shows heightened anxiety among service members regarding rising prices. Nearly 80% of military personnel express stress about recent price increases, significantly higher than the 71.8% of all U.S. adults who share similar feelings. Furthermore, 81.8% of service members are concerned about future price hikes, reflecting widespread uncertainty about inflation’s long-term impact on household budgets. States Where Service Members Struggle To Cover Costs More than half of service members in certain states have difficulty covering basic household expenses. Image Credit: Upgraded Points Across the U.S., the financial burden on service members varies significantly from state to state, primarily influenced by local economic conditions. According to the most recent data, Utah leads with 53.7% of service members reporting difficulty covering basic household expenses, closely followed by Louisiana (52.9%) and Alaska (52.8%). Other states where over half of service members are struggling include Indiana (52.0%), Tennessee (51.2%), New York (50.8%), and Florida (50.3%). A key issue service members frequently raise is that their Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) has not kept pace with the rapidly rising cost of housing. In states where service members face the greatest financial difficulties, such as Utah, Indiana, Tennessee, and Florida, home price increases have far exceeded the national average, exacerbating the strain on household budgets. Another critical factor affecting military families is the employment challenges military spouses face. According to the Department of Defense, the military spouse unemployment rate was 21% in 2023, compared to a national rate of 3.6% that year. Many military bases are located in rural or remote areas, limiting job opportunities for spouses, particularly in specialized fields. Additionally, frequent relocations make it difficult for spouses to sustain long-term careers, especially for those in professions requiring state-specific occupational licenses that can be difficult to transfer. Service members are also more likely to report financial struggles in states with higher-than-average unemployment rates, such as Louisiana, Alaska, and New York. Conversely, the state unemployment rate is below average in 9 of the 10 states where service members report the least financial difficulty. This suggests that strong local employment opportunities, particularly for spouses, significantly ease the financial burden on military households. How You Can Help: Top Military and Veteran Charities Photo Credit: Bumble Dee / Shutterstock One of the most impactful ways to support service members, veterans, and their families who are facing financial hardships is through donations to reputable charities. These organizations are dedicated to addressing the unique challenges faced by military families and veterans, providing vital assistance in areas like housing, medical expenses, scholarships, and career training. To help guide your generosity, we’ve compiled a list of top-rated charities based on scores from Charity Navigator , CharityWatch , and GuideStar , which assess organizations on criteria such as impact, efficiency, accountability, and transparency. Here are some of the best charities supporting military families and veterans in need: 1. USO For over 80 years, the USO has provided crucial support to active-duty service members and their families. From financial assistance programs to community-building initiatives, the USO helps service members stay connected to loved ones while addressing their most pressing needs during deployments and transitions. 2. Homes For Our Troops This charity is focused on providing specially adapted homes for severely injured post-9/11 veterans. It helps veterans regain independence. Homes For Our Troops also provides financial planning and household budgeting to ensure long-term stability for the recipients. 3. Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) Dedicated to advocating for veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, IAVA works to improve government policies and programs that support military families. Its advocacy ensures veterans have access to financial resources, healthcare, and education opportunities. 4. Fisher House Foundation This foundation builds “comfort homes” near military and VA medical centers, allowing families to stay free of charge while a loved one is hospitalized. By reducing travel and lodging expenses, Fisher House eases financial stress during difficult times. 5. Hope For The Warriors Offering a range of programs focused on financial stability, wellness, social support, and education, Hope For The Warriors provides critical support to service members, veterans, and their families. Its services include direct financial assistance for transitioning service members and veterans in need, career training and job placement, and scholarships for spouses. 6. Semper Fi & America’s Fund Semper Fi & America’s Fund assists wounded, ill, and injured service members and their families through direct financial assistance and case management during hospitalization and recovery. The organization also provides educational support, career assistance, and health and wellness services. 7. Wounded Warriors Family Support (WWFS) WWFS supports families of those wounded or killed in combat through programs like medical travel grants, meal and housekeeping assistance, in-home care services, and family retreats. By addressing these families' immediate and ongoing needs, WWFS alleviates the financial burdens of those suffering from recent tragic events. For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, see Rising Costs Hit Military Families Hard: Here’s How You Can Help on Upgraded Points . Methodology Photo Credit: Jacob Lund / Shutterstock Upgraded Points conducted the analysis using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey Phase 4.0–4.2 , covering the period from January 9, 2024, to September 16, 2024. Service members were defined as adults currently serving in the U.S. armed forces (Active Duty, Reserve, or National Guard) and their spouses. This analysis focuses on 3 key questions from the survey: Statistics with fewer than 50 survey responses were omitted from the analysis. Additional statistics on home prices were sourced from Zillow’s Home Value Index , and unemployment rates were sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates . For complete results, see Rising Costs Hit Military Families Hard: Here’s How You Can Help on Upgraded Points. Get local news delivered to your inbox!Will Kamala Harris run for California governor in 2026? The question is already swirlingWASHINGTON -- WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump said he can't guarantee that his promised tariffs on key U.S. foreign trade partners won't raise prices for American consumers and he suggested once more that some political rivals and federal officials who pursued legal cases against him should be imprisoned. The president-elect, in a wide-ranging interview with NBC's “Meet the Press” that aired Sunday, also touched on monetary policy, immigration, abortion and health care, and U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel and elsewhere. Trump often mixed declarative statements with caveats, at one point cautioning “things do change.” A look at some of the issues covered: Trump has threatened broad trade penalties, but said he didn’t believe economists' predictions that added costs on those imported goods for American companies would lead to higher domestic prices for consumers. He stopped short of a pledge that U.S. an households won't be paying more as they shop. “I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow,” Trump said, seeming to open the door to accepting the reality of how import levies typically work as goods reach the retail market. That's a different approach from Trump's typical speeches throughout the 2024 campaign, when he framed his election as a sure way to curb inflation. In the interview, Trump defended tariffs generally, saying that tariffs are "going to make us rich.” He has pledged that, on his first day in office in January, he would impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada unless those countries satisfactorily stop illegal immigration and the flow of illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the United States. He also has threatened tariffs on China to help force that country to crack down on fentanyl production. ”All I want to do is I want to have a level, fast, but fair playing field,” Trump said. He offered conflicting statements on how he would approach the justice system after winning election despite being convicted of 34 felonies in a New York state court and being indicted in other cases for his handling of national security secrets and efforts to overturn his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden. “Honestly, they should go to jail,” Trump said of members of Congress who investigated the Capitol riot by his supporters who wanted him to remain in power. The president-elect underscored his contention that he can use the justice system against others, including special prosecutor Jack Smith, who led the case on Trump’s role in the siege on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump confirmed his plan to pardon supporters who were convicted for their roles in the riot, saying he would take that action on his first day in office. As for the idea of revenge driving potential prosecutions, Trump said: “I have the absolute right. I’m the chief law enforcement officer, you do know that. I’m the president. But I’m not interested in that." At the same time, Trump singled out lawmakers on a special House committee who had investigated the insurrection, citing Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. “Cheney was behind it ... so was Bennie Thompson and everybody on that committee,” Trump said. Asked specifically whether he would direct his administration to pursue cases, he said, “No,” and suggested he did not expect the FBI to quickly undertake investigations into his political enemies. But at another point, Trump said he would leave the matter up to Pam Bondi, his pick as attorney general. “I want her to do what she wants to do,” he said. Such threats, regardless of Trump's inconsistencies, have been taken seriously enough by many top Democrats that Biden is considering issuing blanket, preemptive pardons to protect key members of his outgoing administration. Trump did seemingly back off his campaign rhetoric calling for Biden to be investigated, saying, “I’m not looking to go back into the past.” Trump repeatedly mentioned his promises to seal the U.S.-Mexico border and deport millions of people who are in the U.S. illegally through a mass deportation program. “I think you have to do it,” he said. He suggested he would try to use executive action to end “birthright” citizenship under which people born in the U.S. are considered citizens — although such protections are spelled out in the Constitution. Asked specifically about the future for people who were brought into the country illegally as children and have been shielded from deportation in recent years, Trump said, “I want to work something out,” indicating he might seek a solution with Congress. But Trump also said he does not “want to be breaking up families” of mixed legal status, “so the only way you don’t break up the family is you keep them together and you have to send them all back.” Long a critic of NATO members for not spending more on their own defense, Trump said he “absolutely” would remain in the alliance “if they pay their bills.” Pressed on whether he would withdraw if he were dissatisfied with allies’ commitments, Trump said he wants the U.S. treated “fairly” on trade and defense. He waffled on a NATO priority of containing Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Trump suggested Ukraine should prepare for less U.S. aid in its defense against Putin’s invasion. “Possibly. Yeah, probably. Sure,” Trump said of reducing Ukraine assistance from Washington. Separately, Trump has called for an immediate cease-fire . Asked about Putin, Trump said initially that he has not talked to the Russian leader since Election Day last month, but then hedged: “I haven’t spoken to him recently.” Trump said when pressed, adding that he did not want to “impede the negotiation.” The president-elect said he has no intention, at least for now, of asking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down before Powell's term ends in 2028. Trump said during the campaign that presidents should have more say in Fed policy , including interest rates. Trump did not offer any job assurances for FBI Director Christopher Wray, whose term is to end in 2027. Asked about Wray, Trump said: “Well, I mean, it would sort of seem pretty obvious” that if the Senate confirms Kash Patel as Trump's pick for FBI chief, then “he’s going to be taking somebody’s place, right? Somebody is the man that you’re talking about.” Trump promised that the government efficiency effort led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will not threaten Social Security. “We're not touching Social Security, other than we make it more efficient,” he said. He added that “we're not raising ages or any of that stuff.” He was not so specific about abortion or his long-promised overhaul of the Affordable Care Act. On abortion, Trump continued his inconsistencies and said he would “probably” not move to restrict access to the abortion pills that now account for a majority of pregnancy terminations, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which supports abortion rights. But pressed on whether he would commit to that position, Trump replied, “Well, I commit. I mean, are -- things do -- things change. I think they change.” Reprising a line from his Sept. 10 debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump again said he had “concepts” of a plan to substitute for the 2010 Affordable Care Act, which he called “lousy health care.” He added a promise that any Trump version would maintain insurance protections for Americans with preexisting health conditions. He did not explain how such a design would be different from the status quo or how he could deliver on his desire for “better healthcare for less money.” ___ Barrow reported from Atlanta. Associated Press writers Adriana Gomez Licon in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Jill Colvin and Michelle L. Price in New York contributed to this report.
It's been nothing short of a banner year for Wall Street and investors. As of the closing bell on Dec. 5, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI -0.28% ) , benchmark S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.25% ) , and growth-centric Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC 0.81% ) have respectively gained 19%, 27%, and 31% year to date. Wall Street's two-year bull market has been fueled by a number of catalysts. For instance, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution may provide a leap forward in growth potential for businesses. Additionally, operating results for Wall Street's most influential businesses have, for the most part, been better than anticipated. But the latest catalyst for the stock market is arguably the most eyebrow-raising: President-elect Donald Trump's November victory . Trump's return to the White House for a nonconsecutive second term in January will very likely pave the way for less stringent banking regulations, more merger and acquisition activity, and possibly a 29% reduction in the corporate income tax rate for domestic manufacturers . The proposals laid out by the former (and incoming) president are undeniably investor-friendly. Unfortunately, history offers an ominous warning for Wall Street and the stock market as Donald Trump prepares to take office in just over six weeks. Republican presidents and recessions go hand in hand Let me preface the following discussion with an important caveat: There is no such thing as a guaranteed forecasting tool on Wall Street. Although some events, metrics, and predictive data points have an uncanny history of accuracy, there's no concrete guarantee of anything occurring in the stock market. With that said, history shows an exceptionally strong correlation between Republican presidents in the White House and U.S. recessions . Over the last 111 years, there have been 10 Republicans in the Oval Office and nine Democrats. Four of the nine Democrats to hold America's highest office did not oversee a recession that began under their tenure (key phrase!). This figure makes the logical assumption that President Joe Biden won't see a recession declared during his final six weeks in office, which would make him the fourth Democratic president to avoid a recession. On the other end of the spectrum, Republican presidents have overseen 13 recessions since 1913, with every single GOP chief contending with a recession during their tenure. Donald Trump was the latest addition to this lengthy list due to the COVID-19 pandemic-driven recession. While nothing is guaranteed, every Republican president for more than a century overseeing a recession is a worrisome correlation for Wall Street. Even though stocks and the U.S. economy aren't tethered at the hip, economic contractions would be expected to adversely impact corporate earnings. What's more, a study from Bank of America Global Research found that, between 1927 and March 2023, two-thirds of peak-to-trough drawdowns in the S&P 500 occurred during, not prior to, recessions being declared. In plainer English, stocks perform poorly when recessions occur. Ominous warnings are mounting for the U.S. economy and stock market As Donald Trump readies to take office for his second term, he's going to inherit a challenging set of circumstances. While the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all galloped to multiple record-closing highs in the wake of Election Day, ominous warnings for the U.S. economy and Wall Street are beginning to mount. US M2 Money Supply data by YCharts . For example, in 2023, U.S. M2 money supply endured its biggest year-over-year decline since the Great Depression . There have been only four periods prior to last year when M2 money supply fell by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis -- 1878, 1893, 1921, and 1931-1933 -- and they all correlate with periods of economic depression and double-digit unemployment. Though a depression is highly unlikely in modern times, thanks to the tools the Federal Reserve and federal government have at their disposal, a notable drop in M2 does suggest that consumers may make fewer discretionary purchases, which is an ingredient for a recession. Another source of concern is the longest yield-curve inversion on record between the three-month Treasury bill and the 10-year Treasury bond. Normally, the yield curve slopes up and to the right, with yields increasing the longer your money is tied up in an interest-bearing asset. But when investors are worried about the economic outlook, the yield curve can invert, with short-term T-bills sporting higher yields than T-bonds. Although an inverted yield curve doesn't guarantee a recession will occur, every recession since World War II has been preceded by one. We're also witnessing clear-cut red flags from historically flawless valuation measures . S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts . The S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE ratio) , ended Dec. 5 at 38.81, well above its average reading of 17.17 when back-tested to January 1871. It also marks the third-highest reading during a continuous bull market. More importantly, the five previous instances spanning 153 years where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E topped 30 were eventually followed by declines of 20% to 89% in the S&P 500 and/or Dow Jones Industrial Average. The famed " Buffett Indicator " is pushing boundaries, too. The valuation tool Warren Buffett praised earlier this century, which divides the market value of all public companies into U.S. gross domestic product, hit a record high of 208% last week. For context, it's averaged closer to 85% since 1970. Most signs point to economic and stock market turbulence taking shape at some point during President-elect Trump's second term. History also shows that patience consistently prevails But there is a silver lining amid these short-term warnings. Specifically, history is a two-sided coin, and it tends to favor patient investors far more than short-term traders. Even though Republican presidents and recessions have gone hand-in-hand for more than 110 years, an even stronger historic correlation is the nonlinearity of the economic cycle . Since World War II came to a conclusion in September 1945, the U.S. has worked its way through a dozen recessions. Of these 12 downturns, nine were resolved in less than a year, while none of the remaining three surpassed 18 months in length. While recessions can undoubtedly be worrisome and lead to emotion-driven moves in the stock market , they're historically short-lived. On the other side of the coin, over the last 79 years, there have been two periods of growth that surpassed the 10-year mark. A majority of economic expansions are going to stick around for multiple years, which is why the U.S. economy and corporate earnings grow over long periods. It's a similar story for the stock market. Every year, the analysts at Crestmont Research update a data set that examines the rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) of the broad-based S&P 500 since 1900. Though the S&P didn't come into existence until 1923, researchers were able to trace its components to other indexes prior to its inception -- thus, the total returns data are back-tested to 1900. What Crestmont Research found was that all 105 rolling 20-year periods , with end dates ranging from 1919 through 2023, produced a positive total return. In other words, if an investor had, hypothetically, purchased an S&P 500 tracking index at any point since 1900 and held that position for 20 years, they would have generated a profit every single time, regardless of which party controlled the White House during that timeline. Even if history rhymes, once more, during Donald Trump's second term, patient investors are well positioned for success.Has Red Sweep historically benefited equity markets? Barclays answers
After 149 shows, an estimated US$2 billion in revenue and countless outfit changes, Taylor Swift takes to the stage tonight in Vancouver for the final show of her record-smashing Eras Tour. It’s the superstar’s third sold-out night at BC Place, where she has received a delirious welcome from Swifties both local and international. Swift has reciprocated the feeling, telling the audience on Friday night that she chose Canada and Vancouver to close out the tour because the fans not only know the lyrics, they “scream them.” Swifties have been planning something special to end the tour, with Swift forums abuzz with suggestions to surprise her by singing “Happy Birthday” at tonight’s show, ahead of Swift’s 35th birthday on Dec. 13. Fan projects like this have been a big part of the Eras Tour, with chants and patterned clapping breaking out during various songs. University of Kansas sociology professor and “Swiftologist” Brian Donovan says such moments of joyous social solidarity are known as “collective effervescence.” “What is interesting about the Eras Tour is that it also brought about unique cultural things like the trading of friendship bracelets,” he said, noting such practices were fan-driven and were not organized by Swift or her team. Swiftie Jenny Fox got tickets to Saturday’s show after seeing daughter Avery’s reaction to the Eras Tour movie. “I texted my husband in the theatre and said that if this is how it is in a movie theatre, I can’t even imagine what it would be like to see and experience this in real life in a massive stadium and to see the joy on Avery’s face,” she said. University of British Columbia philosophy professor Kimberley Brownlee said Swift’s concerts and the fans’ involvement have provided something “glorious,” and a “joy we get to share in collectively.” Before Swift’s Vancouver dates, she performed six shows in Toronto last month. Canada was announced as a late addition to the tour last year. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had previously pleaded with the star on social media to visit Canada, telling her “don’t make it another cruel summer.” Trudeau and family members were among Swifties at the Toronto shows, as were former U.S. president Bill Clinton and wife Hillary. For Fox, attending the tour in Vancouver with her daughter has special meaning. Fox is the primary caretaker for her own mother, who has late-stage Alzheimer’s. Music, she said, has become the last connection to the person her mom once was. “As soon as we put certain music on, mom comes back,” she said. “So music is very near and dear to us. We play a lot of music, and a lot of Taylor Swift with her, so there is that love and memory and special tie to it.” She says music endures, and attending The Eras Tour together will be something she and Avery can hold on to. “It’s something that we will forever remember,” she said.Pep Guardiola sure 75 per cent of Premier League clubs want Man City relegated
Alistair Berg Back in July of this year, one company that I decided to downgrade was packaging enterprise Ranpak Holdings Corp. ( NYSE: PACK ). Leading up to that point, I had been bullish about the firm. Since Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. We focus on cash flow and the companies that generate it, leading to value and growth prospects with real potential. Subscribers get to use a 50+ stock model account, in-depth cash flow analyses of E&P firms, and live chat discussion of the sector. Sign up today for your two-week free trial and get a new lease on oil & gas! Daniel is an avid and active professional investor. Crude Value Insights Learn more Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.None
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