President-elect Donald Trump’s soon-to-be national security adviser Mike Waltz has been weighing several proposals in recent days for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine , including one from Gen. Keith Kellogg who Trump announced Wednesday as his pick to be to be special envoy to the countries, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN While the specifics of a strategy are still being worked on, Trump officials will likely push for a ceasefire early on to freeze the conflict temporarily while both sides negotiate, the people said. Trump administration officials are also expected to push for European allies and NATO to take on more of the cost-sharing burden for supporting Ukraine. “We need to bring this to a responsible end,” Waltz told Fox over the weekend. “We need to restore deterrence, restore peace, and get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it.” Prior to winning the election, Trump repeatedly claimed that the Russia-Ukraine war would not have started if he had been president. He also vowed to end the war, sometimes even claiming he would stop the years-long conflict before taking office. In July, he said he could settle the conflict in one day. In his September presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris , Trump refused to say he was committed to Ukraine defeating Russia. Later that month, he suggested that Ukraine should have “given up a little bit” to Moscow, saying at a campaign event that “any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now.” The plans Waltz is reviewing include a proposal from Kellogg, who served as an adviser on national security issues in the first Trump administration. “I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Keith has led a distinguished Military and Business career, including serving in highly sensitive National Security roles in my first Administration. He was with me right from the beginning! Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump posted. The Kellogg plan calls for continued US military aid to Ukraine to be conditioned on Kyiv participating in peace talks with Russia and “a formal US policy to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict.” Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, meanwhile, would be “put off” for an extended period to draw Russia to the table. Waltz has also reviewed a separate proposal that has been endorsed by Trump’s former ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Grenell has previously expressed support for the creation of “autonomous regions” inside Ukraine, though he has not explained in detail what that would look like. “Autonomous regions can mean a lot of things to a lot of people, but you got to work through those details,” he told Bloomberg in July. Another idea being floated is to allow Russia to keep the territory it holds now in exchange for Ukraine getting NATO membership, though few people in Trump’s orbit appear eager to invite Ukraine into NATO anytime soon, the people said. That’s a view at least partly shared by the Biden administration, which has said that Ukraine will join NATO but only when the war is over. Ukraine was among a range of issues Waltz discussed with Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan during a meeting last week. CNN has asked the Trump transition team for comment. ‘Too early to say’ what ultimate strategy will look like Still, sources caution that it is “too early” to say what the Trump team’s strategy for ending the war in Ukraine will ultimately look like. Trump, himself, is always altering his positions and messaging tactics – particularly on foreign policy issues – meaning the planning process as it relates to Ukraine will likely be fluid, one source familiar with internal transition discussions noted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this month that “from our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” But he has also lambasted the idea of implementing a ceasefire without security guarantees first from the West. “Ceasefire? We tried that in 2014, we tried to reach it and then we lost Crimea and then we had the full-scale war in 2022,” Zelensky said at a conference in Budapest earlier this month. Zelensky, who met with Trump in New York in September, told reporters in Budapest that “I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision” to end the war. “He [Trump] wants this war to be finished. We all want to end this war, but a fair ending. ... If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.” Trump allies tapped to serve in top national security roles have already signaled publicly that the President-elect is considering a range of options to bring both Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table – including some that appear to contradict his previously stated views on the conflict. Sebastian Gorka, who Trump recently named to serve as one of Waltz’s top deputies, recently called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “thug” and said the incoming administration could ramp up US military aid to Ukraine, beyond the current level of support, in an effort to bring about a swift end to the war. “I will give one tip away that the president has mentioned, he will say to that murderous former KGB colonel, that thug who runs the Russian federation, you will negotiate now or the aid we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts. That’s how he will force those gentlemen to come to an arrangement that stops the bloodshed,” Gorka said during a recent interview on Times Radio. At the same time, top Trump officials anticipate the president-elect will want to take a similarly hard line toward Ukraine and could threaten to withhold aid if they do not come to the negotiating table, according to a source familiar with ongoing discussions about ending the war. In recent weeks, the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use US-made long-range missiles to strike targets deep within Russia. For months, Zelensky publicly lobbied the US to green light the use of the ATACMS missiles, but the US only relented in mid-November. The decision came a short time after the administration lifted a de facto ban on US contractors working in Ukraine in order to more quickly repair advanced systems like F-16 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense systems.Following a sharp rebound in 2023, the capital markets have been scorching hot this year -- with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 24% and 30%, respectively, as of market close on Dec. 20. Of course, this year's hottest investment theme -- artificial intelligence (AI) -- remained unchanged from 2023. Within the AI realm, semiconductor stocks have generated some of the most lucrative returns over the last couple of years. But one stock that hasn't seemed to captivate investors is Nvidia 's chief rival, Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD 1.36% ) . As of this writing, shares of AMD have fallen by 19% this year. When compared to Nvidia's return of 172%, investing in AMD looks like a tough sell. Below, I'll break down some of the factors that are influencing AMD's price action and assess if now is a good opportunity to buy the dip in AMD stock as it trades near a 52-week low . Are investors missing the point with AMD? In late October, AMD announced financial results for its third quarter. The company's revenue of $6.8 billion only represented an increase of 18% year over year. While this might look mundane compared to other AI darlings, I'd encourage investors to look a little deeper. AMD reports revenue into four major categories: data center, client, gaming, and embedded. During the third quarter, AMD's gaming and embedded segments declined by 69% and 25%, respectively, year over year. On the other hand, the company's client segment increased by 29% while the data center business rose 122% year over year. With such a wide disparity among its various businesses, AMD's total revenue growth of 18% looks more reasonable. Furthermore, one aspect I think is going overlooked is that AMD's data center business is growing at a commensurate pace to Nvidia's . This is not a dynamic I would discount, and below I'll detail why. The long-term picture looks strong Nvidia's biggest advantage in the AI arms race may not be its technological chops. Rather, for the better part of a year Nvidia did not have any competition in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market. This first-mover advantage allowed Nvidia to achieve enormous levels of pricing power as demand for chip ware steadily rose on the heels of rising investment in generative AI. However, AMD's foray into the data center GPU market is clearly beginning to bear fruit. Both Microsoft and Meta Platforms , which are known customers of Nvidia, are also complementing their chip stack with AMD's MI300 accelerators . Considering AMD has new lines of GPUs scheduled to release next year and through 2026, I'm cautiously optimistic that the company will be able to eat away at Nvidia's commanding market share over the long term as companies seek to differentiate their AI investments rather than relying on a singular provider. Is AMD stock a buy right now? One valuation metric that can be helpful when determining if a stock is fairly priced is the PEG ratio . Unlike the price-to-earnings multiple, the PEG ratio looks at the growth of earnings over a forecast period (i.e., five years). Generally speaking, a PEG lower than 1 implies that a stock could be undervalued. Right now, AMD's PEG ratio is 0.31 -- implying the stock is trading at a deep discount. Taking this a step further, AMD currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of roughly 24 -- essentially in line with the S&P 500. These valuation trends could imply that investors have lost enthusiasm over AMD and no longer view the company as a lucrative growth opportunity. Looked at a different way, investors appear to be pricing an investment in AMD as no different to that of dumping some cash into the S&P 500. To me, the sour sentiment around AMD is largely unwarranted. While the company is indeed lagging in some areas of the business, its potential in the GPU space alone should more than make up for the losses exhibited in non-core operations such as gaming. Investors currently have a rare opportunity to buy a leading chip company at some of its lowest prices in quite some time. In my eyes, AMD is a bargain at its current valuation and I think now is an incredible opportunity to take advantage of its sell-off and prepare to hold for the long run as its momentum is just beginning.
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