OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Pro for $200 a Month
(BPT) - Tech gifts are consistently some of the most popular presents to give and receive during the holidays. In fact, according to the annual Consumer Technology Holiday Purchase Patterns report , a record 233 million U.S. adults (89%) will buy tech products during the 2024 holiday season. But with so many devices out there, it can be hard to decide on the perfect option for the loved one on your list. A tablet like the new Fire HD 8 from Amazon offers the versatility of an all-in-one device, with access to streaming, gaming, video chatting, reading or writing all at your fingertips. Fire HD 8 also features a vibrant 8-inch HD display and lightweight, portable design, for high-quality entertainment on the go. Plus, Fire HD 8 comes with three new AI features that can help you get the most out of your tablet experience. Check them out below and learn how they can help you with daily tasks this holiday season and beyond. 1. Meet your personal writing assistant Do you struggle with writing a heartfelt message or finessing a tricky email? Fear not! Writing Assist is here to help. Writing Assist works as part of your Fire tablet's device keyboard and compatible apps, including email, Word documents and social media. In just a few taps, you can transform your writing from good to great. Try Writing Assist's pre-set styles to turn a simple email into a professionally written note. Or, you can ask Writing Assist for grammar suggestions to make your writing more concise, or elaborate on your ideas. You can even "emojify" your writing to add more fun and personality. 2. Learn more in less time Say goodbye to scrolling through pages of information. The new Webpage Summaries feature allows you to learn pertinent information as quickly as possible. Available on the Silk browser on Fire tablets, Webpage Summaries provides quick insights on web articles. In a matter of seconds, this feature will distill the key points in an article or on a webpage into a clear, concise summary of what you need to know. 3. Get creative with your device wallpaper With Wallpaper Creator, you can easily add a touch of creative flair and customization to your tablet's home screen. You can choose from one of the curated prompts to get started on creating a unique background. Or, if you're ready to let your imagination run wild, type a description of what you'd like to see. For example, you can ask for an image of a tiger swimming underwater or a watercolor-style image of a desert landscape in space. Wallpaper Creator will then turn your vision into a reality, delivering a high-resolution image that you can use as your tablet's wallpaper. Celebrate an AI-powered holiday season Writing Assist, Webpage Summaries, and Wallpaper Creator are now available on Amazon's new Fire HD 8 and other compatible Fire tablet devices, including the latest Fire HD 10 and Fire Max 11 tablets. To learn more, or to order a new Fire tablet this gift-giving season, visit Amazon.com .Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed. Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Ordinary working citizens start to say, “Wait a minute, there is not enough left for my everyday expenses. The system needs to change.” Elections lead to the selection of politicians who want war, or who want to overturn the current system. The system then changes in a way that leads to less spending on healthcare and other complexities. if(window.innerWidthADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_atf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_atf" });';document.write(write_html);} In this post, I will try to explain a bit of the underlying problem and give some hints at what the simplification might look like. Part of the problem is too little energy supply. This is a problem that cannot be told to the public; it would be too distressing. In this post, I present the result of a recent academic study that has attempted to recalibrate the findings of the 1972 Limits to Growth study with updated data. Economies need both resources and human participants. Human populations tend to increase in number if conditions are favorable. When population grows, resources per capita, such as arable land and fresh water, tends to fall. Adding complexity helps an economy work around falling resources per capita. With added complexity, it is possible for resource extraction of many kinds to grow, at least for a time. Deeper wells can sometimes add more fresh water supply. Irrigation and fertilizer can be used to increase crop yields. International trade allows the possibility of getting resources from more distant lands. Adding debt allows factories to be built and to be paid for “after the fact,” using the sales of the goods produced by the factories. Ever-larger governments allow more roads, schools, and services of all kinds. The use of added complexity helps keep economies growing for a long time, but at some point, things start going wrong. Oil wells and other types of resource extraction become more expensive to build because the easiest to extract resources tend to be used first. Pollution becomes more of a problem. Universities start producing more graduates with advanced degrees than there are job openings paying enough to justify studying for those degrees. Healthcare costs become hugely expensive. Increasing interest on debt becomes a huge burden, both for governments and individual citizens. When added complexity reaches a limit, citizens sense a problem. They tend to vote the current governments out of power. Or they become rebellious in other ways. I think the world has already reached a complexity limit. When added complexity no longer has sufficient payback, the system seems to sense this and starts pushing economies in the opposite direction. Often, the wages of ordinary workers become too low, relative to the cost of living. They rebel and overthrow their governments. Or central governments may collapse, as the central government of the Soviet Union did in 1991. This happened after oil prices were low for an extended period. The Soviet Union was an oil exporter, depending on oil exports for tax revenue. Revenue from collectivized agriculture was underperforming, also. Thus, getting rid of a layer of government, or too many government programs, seems to be one common theme of simplification. Another issue today is international trade. Crude oil supplies per capita are low. Somehow, international trade (which uses crude oil) needs to be cut back. With inadequate total oil supplies available, it becomes very desirable to do manufacturing close to home, rather than at a distance. This is a major reason for the competition in manufacturing between the US and China. If the US can manufacture locally, it will provide jobs and save some of the limited world crude oil supply. Another issue is the oversupply of workers with advanced degrees, relative to the number of jobs requiring such degrees. A study released in early 2024 indicates that only about half of US college graduates are able to obtain a job requiring a college level degree within a year of graduation. In fact, the majority of those who cannot obtain a job requiring a college-level degree within a year after graduation remain underemployed 10 years after graduation. Pretty clearly, the number of college graduates needs to fall. I showed in Figure 1 that US healthcare costs are very high, but they have recently been on a plateau. Perhaps these high healthcare expenses might make sense if US life expectancies were longer than elsewhere, thanks to all this spending. In fact, US life expectancy at birth is lower than in any other advanced nation. The CIA Factbook ranks the US life expectancy as 49th from the top in 2024. Figure 3 (above) shows a chart I found several years ago, showing how US female life expectancy has been dropping, relative to other high-income countries. Figure 4 shows that US life expectancies have continued to fall relative to other advanced economies. Something is clearly going wrong with health in the United States. It is no wonder that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to “Make America Healthy Again.” There is also the question of the level of US healthcare spending, relative to GDP. The share for the US, from Figure 1, is about 17%. The shares for the EU, the UK, and Japan are each about 11% according to the World Bank. The share for Russia is about 7%; for China it is about 5%. Another issue mentioned in the introduction is the proportion of government spending that goes toward non-working individuals. The chart below shows how US Federal Government funds are spent. When the budget is prepared, often many of these programs are lumped together as “Mandatory Spending,” so we don’t see precisely what the spending is for. Typically, the arguments about spending are on the parts of the budget other than mandatory spending. The problem is that all parts need to be funded, one way or another. Social Security describes its program as largely pay as you go . Mostly, the payroll taxes collected from today’s workers are used to pay benefits to today’s recipients. Keeping the system working as it does today becomes a problem if the total amount of goods and services produced starts falling at some point. For example, if the total food supply at some point (say 2050) becomes too low, there is a question regarding which citizens should get inadequate food rations: the workers, or those receiving benefits under a pension program for the elderly. I would vote for the workers getting adequate food, if we expect them to continue to work. This issue suggests that at some point, the elderly may have to go back to work to get an adequate share of what is being produced. Donald Trump and his team clearly have a much different view of how the government should be operated than Joe Biden did. In particular, the new team would like to get rid of what they see as unneeded parts of the system. There seem to be many other parts of the world encountering somewhat similar political and funding difficulties. Germany is dealing with a collapse of government . France is facing political and budget crises . Even China’s economy is having huge difficulties . It is not only oil that is in short supply (Figure 2); coal is also in short supply, relative to world’s population (Figure 6). if(window.innerWidth ADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_btf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_btf" });`;document.write(write_html);} Uranium is in short supply, as well. The issue for uranium is that the world’s supply of nuclear warheads that could temporarily serve as a supplement to currently mined uranium is running short. These warheads belonged primarily to the US and to Russia, but Russia has sold a substantial amount of its warheads to the US, to be down-blended for use in nuclear power reactors. Without enough energy resources per person, the world will likely need to produce fewer goods and services in total. Some uses for energy products, and for the goods and services that can be made with energy products, need to disappear. Now, all parts of the world need to re-examine energy uses that are currently being made and look for uses that the economy can most easily get along without. For example, the step-down in oil consumption per capita that occurred in 2020 seems to be still having some effect. Some people are still working from home, saving oil that would be used for commuting. Some long-distance airline flights were eliminated, as well, particularly in Asia, reducing jet fuel consumption. The self-organizing economy tends to push the world in the direction of contraction. How this will work is not at all clear. Most people didn’t understand the response to Covid-19 as a way to cut back oil consumption. It is possible that future changes will, to some extent, come from cutbacks directed by government organizations that are as difficult to understand as the Covid-19 restrictions. The original 1972 analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. An article called, “ Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model ” by Arjuna Nebel and others was published earlier this year in the Journal of Industrial Ecology . The summary exhibit of their findings is shown here as Figure 8. On Figure 8, Recalibration23 is the name given to the new model output. The BAU dotted line shows the indications from the base (business as usual) 1972 model. I found the coloring a little confusing, so I added the labels “Industrial Output” and “Population” to better mark what I consider the two most important model outputs. Food Production per capita is the green line, which is also important. The calculations are all made in terms of the weight of physical quantities of materials used, for the world as a whole. The financial system is not modeled. We do not know how accurate a forecast such as this is. I know that Dennis Meadows, who was the leader of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, has said that once peak was reached, we could not expect the model to necessarily hold. Even with this caveat, I find this forecast disturbing. Industrial output per capita (which would include things like automobiles, farm machinery, and computers) is shown as already steeply declining by 2025 in the updated model. This trend is much clearer than in the 1972 model. By 2050, industrial output per capita is a small fraction of the amount it was at peak. Food output per capita is shown to start dropping about 2025. Based on my understanding of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, this change might reflect a shift away from meat-eating, rather than simply fewer total calories per person. World population follows a curve similar to that of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis with a peak in world population at perhaps about 2030. In the updated model, pollution has been modeled as CO2 levels. This is different from the mix of pollutants used in the original model. The peak comes around 2090. Figure 8 indicates that world industrial production is expected to be the first type of output to drop. This makes sense if energy supply is quite limited or is high-priced. Without adequate inexpensive energy supply, a country is likely to cut back on manufacturing its own goods. Instead, it tries to buy from countries with less expensive sources of energy supply. For example, US industrial production per capita has been falling since 1973. The year 1973 was the year when oil prices first spiked. US business leaders realized that changes were needed: A larger share of manufactured goods needed to be imported from countries with lower-cost fuel supply. Oil needed to be used sparingly because of its high cost. Coal, used heavily in Asia, was typically much cheaper. China took the lead in industrial production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but now it is running into obstacles. One issue is that China’s contribution to the world’s supply of goods is taking away high-paying jobs from other countries. Other countries are left with more low-paying service jobs. A second issue is that the US has become dependent upon China for critical materials, such as those used in military armaments. A third issue is that a great deal of China’s growth was financed by debt. As long as China’s exports were growing very rapidly, this was not a problem. But as growth has slowed, China’s debt has become difficult to repay with interest . The level of conflict between China and other countries has grown, in part because it has become clear that it is not possible for industry to grow rapidly both in China and elsewhere, indirectly because of fossil fuel and uranium limits. The US applies sanctions against some Chinese companies and China retaliates by hoarding scarce resources. These include minerals such as antimony, tungsten, gallium, germanium , graphite, and magnesium. The world is increasingly operating in a “not enough to go around” mode for scarce resources. At the same time, countries need to somewhat get along. So we get strange narratives in the press giving rationalizations for actions by both sides, without mentioning the shortage issue. Figure 8 shows that once industrialization drops, food production also begins to fall, but not as quickly. This makes sense because everyone recognizes that food is essential. The falling calories likely reflect people increasingly moving from meat to vegetable products. Somehow, world population becomes poorer, but the level of population does not drop nearly as rapidly as the drop in industrialization. These are a few ways simplification might take place: [a] High level government organizations might start disappearing . For example, the European Union might not get enough funding and would stop. Or something similar could happen to the International Monetary Fund or the World Trade Organization. [b] Programs that we expect to be funded by the US Federal Government might be handed over completely to the states , to be funded or not, as the finances of individual states permit. Examples might include Medicare, Medicaid, and even Social Security. [c] There could be major banking problems , perhaps simultaneously in many countries around the world. The debt bubble holding up stock markets could pop. Governments would try to compensate, but they might not be able to do enough. Or governments could inadvertently create hyperinflation if there is virtually nothing to buy with the newly printed money created to offset widespread bank failures. [d] There could be a great deal more sharing of homes and of apartments. The current arrangement of many single people living alone, either in an apartment or a stand-alone house could be replaced by many more roommate situations. Multi-generational families living together may become more common. [e] Healthcare may become much simpler and local. Instead of seeing an array of specialists at a distance, people may walk to a local health provider. Medications from around the world are likely to drop greatly in quantity. Government programs to care for the seriously disabled elderly seem likely to be scaled back. [f] Universities may be slimmed down greatly . There is no point in educating a huge number of individuals who cannot get jobs requiring a university degree. [g] The huge amount of effort that goes into taking care of lawns in the US may disappear . Instead, people will put more effort into growing crops locally. Some people may choose to raise chickens, as well. [h] International travel for pleasure will likely disappear, except perhaps for the very rich. Even business trips will become very uncommon. The amount of goods and services transported internationally seems likely to shrink. [i] Many types of optional activities that now take place by car may be replaced by more local versions, which will be reached by walking, or perhaps by bicycle. For example, visits to restaurants may largely disappear, but eating with nearby friends or relatives in homes may increase. Visits to churches may drop greatly, as they did during Covid-19 restrictions, but they may be replaced by groups meeting in homes. Gyms for recreation may disappear, but people may obtain more exercise from their gardens and their need to walk to appointments. [j] Very strange political leaders may take office. One person rule takes much less energy than transporting many representatives to a central location. Some of these leaders may take over as dictators. By Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
What connects us in this polarizing moment through space and time and humanityNEW BRITAIN, Conn. (AP) — Devin Haid had 24 points in Cent. Conn. St.'s 84-80 win against Quinnipiac on Saturday. Haid added six rebounds and four steals for the Blue Devils (8-4). Max Frazier scored 17 points and added nine rebounds. Davonte Sweatman had 14 points and shot 5 for 9 (1 for 3 from 3-point range) and 3 of 4 from the free-throw line. The Bobcats (5-7) were led by Amarri Tice, who posted 21 points, 10 rebounds and four steals. Paul Otieno added 13 points and six rebounds for Quinnipiac. Ryan Mabrey also recorded 12 points. The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar .
President-elect Donald Trump has revealed that his administration will attempt to “eliminate” Daylight Saving Time in the US. Taking to Truth Social, the Republican claimed daylight savings time was “inconvenient” and that he hoped to “eliminate” it. “The Republican Party will use its best efforts to eliminate daylight saving time, which has a small but strong constituency, but shouldn’t!” Mr Trump wrote. “Daylight Saving Time is inconvenient, and very costly to our Nation.” Daylight saving time - putting the clocks forward one hour during the summer half of the year to make the most of the longer evenings - has been in place in nearly all of the United States since the 1960s, but has been a topic of debate in recent years. Some lawmakers want to stay on standard time year-round, more are on record calling for remaining on daylight saving time all year, while others want to keep the status quo. President Joe Biden never took a public position on the issue. In March 2022, the US Senate voted unanimously to make daylight saving time permanent but the effort stalled in the House after lawmakers said they could not reach consensus. A bipartisan group of senators in March made a new push to make daylight saving time permanent. Supporters of remaining on daylight saving time argue it would lead to brighter afternoons and evenings and more economic activity during the winter months. Critics say it would force children to walk to school in darkness since the measure would delay sunrise by an hour. Proponents of eliminating daylight saving time say the twice-annual changing of clocks causes sleep disturbance and health issues. Congress has not held any new hearings on the issue for more than two years and the Senate would need to take up the issue again. Year-round daylight saving time was used during World War Two and adopted again in 1973 in a bid to reduce energy use because of an oil embargo, but was unpopular and was repealed a year later. In America, daylight saving time commences in March, on the second Sunday, and ends of the first Sunday in November. - With ReutersDana Hull | (TNS) Bloomberg News Jared Birchall, Elon Musk’s money manager and the head of his family office, is listed as the chief executive officer. Jehn Balajadia, a longtime Musk aide who has worked at SpaceX and the Boring Co., is named as an official contact. Related Articles National Politics | Trump’s picks for top health jobs not just team of rivals but ‘team of opponents’ National Politics | Biden will decide on US Steel acquisition after influential panel fails to reach consensus National Politics | Biden vetoes once-bipartisan effort to add 66 federal judgeships, citing ‘hurried’ House action National Politics | A history of the Panama Canal — and why Trump can’t take it back on his own National Politics | President-elect Trump wants to again rename North America’s tallest peak But they’re not connected to Musk’s new technology venture, or the political operation that’s endeared him to Donald Trump. Instead, they’re tied to the billionaire’s new Montessori school outside Bastrop, Texas, called Ad Astra, according to documents filed with state authorities and obtained via a Texas Public Information Act request. The world’s richest person oversees an overlapping empire of six companies — or seven, if you include his political action committee. Alongside rockets, electric cars, brain implants, social media and the next Trump administration, he is increasingly focused on education, spanning preschool to college. One part of his endeavor was revealed last year, when Bloomberg News reported that his foundation had set aside roughly $100 million to create a technology-focused primary and secondary school in Austin, with eventual plans for a university. An additional $137 million in cash and stock was allotted last year, according to the most recent tax filing for the Musk Foundation. Ad Astra is closer to fruition. The state documents show Texas authorities issued an initial permit last month, clearing the way for the center to operate with as many as 21 pupils. Ad Astra’s website says it’s “currently open to all children ages 3 to 9.” The school’s account on X includes job postings for an assistant teacher for preschool and kindergarten and an assistant teacher for students ages 6 to 9. To run the school, Ad Astra is partnering with a company that has experience with billionaires: Xplor Education, which developed Hala Kahiki Montessori school in Lanai, Hawaii, the island 98% owned by Oracle Corp. founder Larry Ellison. Ad Astra sits on a highway outside Bastrop, a bedroom community about 30 miles from Austin and part of a region that’s home to several of Musk’s businesses. On a visit during a recent weekday morning, there was a single Toyota Prius in the parking lot and no one answered the door at the white building with a gray metal roof. The school’s main entrance was blocked by a gate, and there was no sign of any children on the grounds. But what information there is about Ad Astra makes it sound like a fairly typical, if high-end, Montessori preschool. The proposed schedule includes “thematic, STEM-based activities and projects” as well as outdoor play and nap time. A sample snack calendar features carrots and hummus. While Birchall’s and Balajadia’s names appear in the application, it isn’t clear that they’ll have substantive roles at the school once it’s operational. Musk, Birchall and Balajadia didn’t respond to emailed questions. A phone call and email to the school went unanswered. Access to high quality, affordable childcare is a huge issue for working parents across the country, and tends to be an especially vexing problem in rural areas like Bastrop. Many families live in “childcare deserts” where there is either not a facility or there isn’t an available slot. Opening Ad Astra gives Musk a chance to showcase his vision for education, and his support for the hands-on learning and problem solving that are a hallmark of his industrial companies. His public comments about learning frequently overlap with cultural concerns popular among conservatives and the Make America Great Again crowd, often focusing on what he sees as young minds being indoctrinated by teachers spewing left-wing propaganda. He has railed against diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, and in August posted that “a lot of schools are teaching white boys to hate themselves.” Musk’s educational interests dovetail with his new role as Trump’s “first buddy.” The billionaire has pitched a role for himself that he — and now the incoming Trump administration — call “DOGE,” or the Department of Government Efficiency. Though it’s not an actual department, DOGE now posts on X, the social media platform that Musk owns. “The Department of Education spent over $1 billion promoting DEI in America’s schools,” the account posted Dec. 12. Back in Texas, Bastrop is quickly becoming a key Musk point of interest. The Boring Co., his tunneling venture, is based in an unincorporated area there. Across the road, SpaceX produces Starlink satellites at a 500,000-square-foot (46,000-square-meter) facility. Nearby, X is constructing a building for trust and safety workers. Musk employees, as well as the general public, can grab snacks at the Boring Bodega, a convenience store housed within Musk’s Hyperloop Plaza, which also contains a bar, candy shop and hair salon. Ad Astra is just a five-minute drive away. It seems to have been designed with the children of Musk’s employees — if not Musk’s own offspring — in mind. Musk has fathered at least 12 children, six of them in the last five years. “Ad Astra’s mission is to foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking in the next generation of problem solvers and builders,” reads the school’s website. A job posting on the website of the Montessori Institute of North Texas says “While their parents support the breakthroughs that expand the realm of human possibility, their children will grow into the next generation of innovators in a way that only authentic Montessori can provide.” The school has hired an executive director, according to documents Bloomberg obtained from Texas Health and Human Services. Ad Astra is located on 40 acres of land, according to the documents, which said a 4,000-square-foot house would be remodeled for the preschool. It isn’t uncommon for entrepreneurs to take an interest in education, according to Bill Gormley, a professor emeritus at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University who studies early childhood education. Charles Butt, the chairman of the Texas-based H-E-B grocery chain, has made public education a focus of his philanthropy. Along with other business and community leaders, Butt founded “Raise Your Hand Texas,” which advocates on school funding, teacher workforce and retention issues and fully funding pre-kindergarten. “Musk is not the only entrepreneur to recognize the value of preschool for Texas workers,” Gormley said. “A lot of politicians and business people get enthusiastic about education in general — and preschool in particular — because they salivate at the prospect of a better workforce.” Musk spent much of October actively campaigning for Trump’s presidential effort, becoming the most prolific donor of the election cycle. He poured at least $274 million into political groups in 2024, including $238 million to America PAC, the political action committee he founded. While the vast majority of money raised by America PAC came from Musk himself, it also had support from other donors. Betsy DeVos, who served as education secretary in Trump’s first term, donated $250,000, federal filings show. The Department of Education is already in the new administration’s cross hairs. Trump campaigned on the idea of disbanding the department and dismantling diversity initiatives, and he has also taken aim at transgender rights. “Rather than indoctrinating young people with inappropriate racial, sexual, and political material, which is what we’re doing now, our schools must be totally refocused to prepare our children to succeed in the world of work,” Trump wrote in Agenda 47, his campaign platform. Musk has three children with the musician Grimes and three with Shivon Zilis, who in the past was actively involved at Neuralink, his brain machine interface company. All are under the age of five. Musk took X, his son with Grimes, with him on a recent trip to Capitol Hill. After his visit, he shared a graphic that showed the growth of administrators in America’s public schools since 2000. Musk is a fan of hands-on education. During a Tesla earnings call in 2018, he talked about the need for more electricians as the electric-car maker scaled up the energy side of its business. On the Joe Rogan podcast in 2020, Musk said that “too many smart people go into finance and law.” “I have a lot of respect for people who work with their hands and we need electricians and plumbers and carpenters,” Musk said while campaigning for Trump in Pennsylvania in October. “That’s a lot more important than having incremental political science majors.” Ad Astra’s website says the cost of tuition will be initially subsidized, but in future years “tuition will be in line with local private schools that include an extended day program.” “I do think we need significant reform in education,” Musk said at a separate Trump campaign event. “The priority should be to teach kids skills that they will find useful later in life, and to leave any sort of social propaganda out of the classroom.” With assistance from Sophie Alexander and Kara Carlson. ©2024 Bloomberg News. Visit at bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.