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vzr<5%#8],"9.Ay:,P 2025-01-12

vzr<5%#8],vzr<5%#8],"9.Ay:,PAfter a thrilling conference championship Saturday and a drawn-out reveal show Sunday, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is set. The first true tournament in FBS history has plenty to love -- and elements to loathe. What Went Right: Unique opening-round matchups Whether the first round proves to be more competitive than the four-team Playoff's often lopsided semifinal matchups remains to be seen. Until then, there is at least intrigue in the historic rarity of the four pairings. One opening-round matchup -- ACC automatic qualifier Clemson at Texas -- is a first-time encounter between two programs that combine for seven claimed national championships. Of the other three, the most recent contest occurred in 1996 when Tennessee topped Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl. The Vols and Buckeyes meet as the No. 9 and No. 8 seeds at Ohio State's Horseshoe, with the winner advancing to face top overall seed Oregon. SMU, a perhaps surprising final at-large selection given the Mustangs' dearth of high-profile wins, meets Penn State for the third time ever and first since 1978. The Nittany Lions scored a 26-21 come-from-behind win in Happy Valley, where they will again host SMU. The Penn State victory ended a 30-year stalemate after the first and only meeting in the 1948 Cotton Bowl produced a 13-13 tie. Here's hoping the third part of a 76-year trilogy is as closely contested as the initial two. Meanwhile, the matchup with the most previous installments is the closest in proximity -- less than 200 miles separate in-state counterparts Indiana and Notre Dame -- and the most lopsided. The Fighting Irish and Hoosiers last played in 1991, with Notre Dame's 49-27 win marking its sixth straight victory by multiple scores. Indiana's last win in the series came in 1950, a 20-7 Hoosiers victory in Bloomington. What Went Right: Boise State's big opportunity Although not the first outsider to reach or win a Bowl Championship Series game, Boise State's 2007 Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma was arguably the most pivotal moment in building support for outsiders to compete for the national championship. The Broncos spent two decades knocking on the door, beginning with their perfect 2004 regular season, extending through two Fiesta Bowl wins, and withstanding the heartbreak of late-season losses in 2010 and 2011. The celebration in response to Boise State being part of the bracket -- and not just in, but as the No. 3 seed with a bye into the quarterfinals -- marked a culmination of generations of effort for just this opportunity. What Went Right: ‘Football weather' comes to the postseason From the birth of the bowl system with the first-ever Rose Bowl Game, college football's postseason has resided primarily in warm-weather destinations. This makes sense for the original purpose of bowl games as showcases and celebrations of a team's regular-season performance, but less so for the goal of crowning a national champion. After decades of playing what often amounted to road games in the postseason, northern teams get their opportunity to host. Three of the four first-round contests are in such climates -- though Indiana won't be particularly disadvantaged by weather when playing Notre Dame in South Bend. With average December highs in Pennsylvania in the 30s, SMU will need its heaters on the sideline at Penn State's Beaver Stadium. The more intriguing trip, however, is Tennessee's to Ohio State. Longtime college football fans know the arguments about SEC teams playing in Big Ten country late in the year. Pitting two high-quality teams from the two leagues head-to-head in such conditions is a highlight of this new postseason system. And, given Tennessee and Ohio State have two of the nation's best defenses, expect a style of play befitting what is often described as football weather. What Went Wrong: More teams means more politicking When Mack Brown seemingly spent as much time on TV campaigning in 2004 as that year's presidential candidates, George W. Bush and John Kerry, his Texas Longhorns were among a small collection of teams vying for BCS bids. With the 12-team Playoff opening the top postseason opportunities to as many as 20 teams realistically, the political campaign ads that mercilessly ended in early November were replaced by the politicking of college football figures. Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard spent last week taking shots at SMU and other programs over strength of schedule -- a point neglecting that the Cyclones' losses came to unranked Texas Tech and sub-.500 Kansas. Arizona State's thorough dismantling of Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game solved that debate at the proverbial ballot box. However, brace yourself for an offseason of recount demands coming out of the SEC. Alabama's exclusion at 9-3, while 11-2 SMU landed the final at-large spot, is sure to play into the same controversy that South Carolina coach Shane Beamer leaned into last week. Beamer told The State (Columbia, S.C.) last week that his program may consider changing its nonconference scheduling in response to its seemingly inevitable Playoff snub. It's an odd position, given South Carolina's three losses all came in-conference, and the Gamecocks' nonleague slate included sub-.500 teams Old Dominion, Akron and FCS Wofford. But then again, how often are political campaign pitches rooted in logic? What Went Wrong: Quantity over quality? A more salient position in Beamer's case for South Carolina is that the Gamecocks scored quality wins during a season-ending, six-game streak. With its Rivalry Week defeat of Clemson, South Carolina added a victory over a Playoff qualifier to complement victories over Texas A&M and Missouri. Alabama, meanwhile, boasts wins over No. 2 overall seed Georgia and that same South Carolina team in contention. SMU's resume might be the most likely to draw ire, given the Mustangs received the last at-large berth. However, SMU beat nine- and eight-win Duke and Louisville, with two losses by a combined six points. Indiana should be the more contentious at-large choice, with the Hoosiers beating only one team that finished above .500: 7-5 Michigan. Indiana's only other matchup with an above-.500 opponent was a 38-15 blowout at Ohio State. That's something Alabama and South Carolina have in common with Indiana, as all three teams lost in routs. Alabama dropped a 24-3 decision late in the season at Oklahoma that presumably doomed the Crimson Tide's chances, while South Carolina lost to Ole Miss 27-3. To that end, there are arguments to be made for and against every team that was on the bubble. No system will ever appease all parties. What Went Wrong: Seeding conundrum Much of the Playoff's very existence flies in the face of college football tradition. One facet of how the field was set that upholds tradition in its own small way is rewarding teams for winning their conferences by reserving the four first-round byes for league champions. When this format was implemented, however, the committee could not have envisioned that two of the top five conference champions would not be ranked in the top 10. Because three-loss Clemson survived a furious SMU comeback in the ACC championship game, and Arizona State caught fire after underwhelming losses to Texas Tech and Cincinnati to win a weak Big 12, the committee was in the unusual position of having to slot a non-power conference champion and double-digit-ranked team in a top-four spot. This first edition of the Playoff seems likely to be the last to use this format, even if this scenario seems like an outlier. --Kyle Kensing, Field Level MediaPep Guardiola’s side at least avoided the indignity of a sixth successive defeat in all competitions but alarm bells continue to ring at the Etihad Stadium after a dramatic late capitulation. A double from Erling Haaland – the first from the penalty spot – and a deflected effort from Ilkay Gundogan, all in the space of nine minutes either side of the break, looked to have ensured a return to winning ways. Yet Guardiola was left with his head in hands as Feyenoord roared back in the last 15 minutes with goals from Anis Hadj Moussa, Sergio Gimenez and David Hancko, two of them after Josko Gvardiol errors. City almost snatched a late winner when Jack Grealish hit the woodwork but there was no masking another dispiriting result. It was hardly the preparation City wanted for Sunday’s crunch trip to Liverpool, and the Feyenoord fans took great delight in rubbing that fact in. They sung the club anthem they share with Liverpool, You’ll Never Walk Alone, and chanted the name of their former manager Arne Slot, the current Reds boss. Guardiola arrived at the ground with a cut on the bridge of his nose and, once again, his side have been struck a nasty blow. Despite not being at their best, they had dominated early on against what seemed limited Dutch opposition. They threatened when a Gundogan shot was deflected wide and Haaland then went close to opening the scoring when he turned a header onto the post. Feyenoord goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther gifted City another chance when he passed straight to Bernardo Silva but Grealish’s fierce volley struck team-mate Phil Foden. Foden forced a save from Wellenreuther but City had a moment of alarm when Igor Paixao got behind the defence only to shoot tamely at Ederson. Nathan Ake missed the target with a header but some luck finally went City’s way just before the break when Quinten Timber, brother of Arsenal’s Jurrien, was harshly adjudged to have fouled Haaland. The Norwegian rammed home the resulting spot-kick and City returned re-energised for the second period. They won a corner when a Matheus Nunes shot was turned behind and Gundogan fired the hosts’ second – albeit with aid of a deflection – with a firm volley from the edge of the box. City turned up the heat and claimed their third soon after as Gundogan released Nunes with a long ball and his low cross was turned into the net by a sliding Haaland. 44' ⚽️ Man City 1-0 Feyenoord50' ⚽️ Man City 2-0 Feyenoord53' ⚽️ Man City 3-0 Feyenoord75' ⚽️ Man City 3-1 Feyenoord82' ⚽️ Man City 3-2 Feyenoord89' ⚽️ Man City 3-3 Feyenoord 🤯🤯🤯 #UCL — UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 26, 2024 It seemed City were heading for a morale-lifting victory but a couple of Gvardiol errors changed the script. The Croatian, who had a torrid time in Saturday’s 4-0 thrashing by Tottenham, first horribly misplaced a backpass and allowed Moussa to nip in and round Ederson. Ordinarily that 75th-minute reply would have been a mere consolation and City would close out the game, but Gvardiol had another moment to forget eight minutes from time. Again he gave the ball away and Feyenoord pounced. The ball was lofted into the box and Jordan Lotomba fired a shot that glanced the post and deflected across goal, where Gimenez chested in. Ederson then blundered as he raced out of his area and was beaten by Paixao, who crossed for Hancko to head into an empty net. Amid some moments of unrest in the crowd, when objects were thrown, City tried to rally in stoppage time. Grealish had an effort deflected onto the bar but the hosts had to settle for a draw.

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Protect yourself on the slopes with these top ski helmets

As snow blankets the Colorado mountains, outdoor enthusiasts have a unique opportunity: the winter hut trip. Whether you’re a skier or a snowshoer, a hut trip offers an excellent opportunity to connect with nature while exploring the rugged beauty of the state’s wilderness and enjoying the warmth and camaraderie of a cozy mountain hut. From the towering peaks of the San Juan Mountains to the snow-covered trails in Summit County, Colorado’s winter hut trips provide an unforgettable experience for adventurers of all levels. Huts fill up fast, so check each property’s for pricing and availability. Located between Telluride and Silverton near the top of Ophir Pass in the San Juan Mountains, the Opus Hut was built for backcountry skiers, mountaineers, hikers and mountain bikers. At 11,700 feet, the hut sits at treeline with low-angle glades below and open slopes above. While intermediate powder skiing is available out the back door of the hut, owner Travis Mohrman said the terrain is best suited for experienced backcountry skiers. Mohrman estimates that 15% to 20% of the groups visiting Opus Hut do so with guides. “They’re not personally comfortable with the terrain or they’re not from the area,” Mohrman said. “They guides are knowledgeable about local conditions — what the snow is, what’s safe and what’s not safe.” The cabin accommodates up to 20 people in five rooms. Some visitors book the whole hut and bring friends and family, while others reserve available beds in unbooked rooms. The hut features solar-powered lighting and 110-volt outlets for charging electronic devices. It also has filtered drinking water, hot and cold tap water, and indoor composting toilets. It provides full bedding and clean sleeping bag liners. During winter, the hut has four to six employees who sleep in a separate cabin. They prepare meals with natural, organic, and, when possible, locally grown products. The hut accommodates vegetarian, vegan, and gluten-free diets–just be sure to inform the staff beforehand. It also offers beer, wine, and a limited selection of spirits for purchase. “You can travel much lighter if you don’t have to bring in your food,” said Mohrman, who took over the hut three years ago. “You don’t have to focus on the upkeep of being in the backcountry.” Reservations for Opus Hut open Aug. 1. “The winter fills up quick,” Mohrman said. “Every winter weekend books in the first five minutes.” Nestled at 11,200 feet in the San Juan National Forest, Campfire Ranch Red Mountain Pass is the perfect base for exploring world-class skiing, split boarding, snowshoeing, and ice climbing. Located between Silverton and Ouray, it’s is accessible during the winter via a half-mile backcountry over-snow approach. Campfire Ranch is an ideal choice for novices. While other Colorado hut systems require you to carry your own food, bring sleeping bags, and live off-grid, this one provides food service, solar-powered electricity, Wi-Fi, and bedding. The dog-friendly cabin accommodates eight people. “We took a hospitality approach to remove barriers to entry for people who want to have the experience but don’t have the gear or the knowledge,” said Katrin Meiusi, director of marketing for the properties. Campfire Ranch first opened a campground on the Taylor River in Almont near Crested Butte. RVs are not permitted at the campground, which is open from May to October. Amenities include unlimited firewood, clean bathrooms, and drinkable well water. The 38 backcountry huts managed by the non-profit 10th Mountain Division Hut Association are connected by 350 miles of trails among some of the tallest peaks in the lower 48 states. All huts, some of which accommodate up to 17 people, have kitchens with propane burners for cooking — propane is provided. They provide pots, pans, potholders, dishware, cooking and eating utensils, a percolator or French press for coffee, salt and pepper, paper towels, dish soap, hand sanitizer, cleaning supplies and trash bags. Some huts have ovens and propane grills. All huts provide lighting from on-site solar power, propane or a generator. A few huts also have outlets for charging small devices such as phones. The huts have either an outhouse or an indoor bathroom with toilet paper supplied. All huts include mattresses and pillows, but you must bring your sleeping bag and pillowcase. Summit Hut Association operates five backcountry huts open for winter from November to May. Francie’s and Janet’s cabins are also open for summer use from July to September. All huts have solar-powered lights, fully stocked kitchens, and wood-burning stoves. Francie’s, Janet’s, and Sisters’ cabins have saunas and indoor toilets. The association hosts its annual Backcountry Ball fundraiser in October at The Maggie on Peak to kick off the season. The event includes dinner, drinks, a silent auction and entertainment. Proceeds help maintain the network of backcountry cabins.None

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Travel: Colorado’s winter huts blend adventure, luxury, and scenic beautyBlue Lagoon Iceland by Zu Hao Zhang - K Laser Design Lab Wins Iron A' Design Award in Packaging Design Category

A £10m government funding package has been announced to help unemployed people in York and North Yorkshire get back to work. The programme was announced alongside the government's Get Britain Working white paper , with the area chosen as one of eight across the country where a trial of ways to help people return to work will be launched. The York and North Yorkshire scheme is expected to focus on improving support for people not working due to ill health, with David Skaith, the area's elected mayor, saying the money would be used to "test new approaches". But what about those most likely to be affected? People at the Jobcentre Plus on Monkgate in York have spoken to the BBC about the issues they face - and whether they feel the new project will help them succesfully get back to work. Caitlin O’Brien-Lowe, who is originally from Manchester, had shown up for her appointment at the Jobcentre. "I need help getting into work," the 25-year-old said. "I have fibromyalgia, which is a chronic pain condition, so I have pain all over my body. "It can make finding work really difficult, so I need help." Caitlin said she would "take anything" in terms of work, but an admin or office job would suit her most. "But I'm at the point where I just need a job," she said. While accessing support, Caitlin said she thought the several referrals she received could have been done at the Jobcentre itself, to make things easier. She said she was also nervous about speaking freely, in case a decision was made against her and staff would not believe she was ill. "It can be really intimidating going in - and you do feel judged," Caitlin added. "It can be difficult having to go in and you feel like if you say the wrong thing, you can get your money taken off you." She hoped the £10m scheme for York and North Yorkshire would help to "create a less judgemental environment where people feel more safe to open up". Michelle, from Acomb in York, had arrived at the Jobcentre for a meeting about switching to Universal Credit. She has had ME, a chronic fatigue condition, for about 27 years, which requires her to use an electric wheelchair to get around. "Nobody in that Jobcentre understands what it is or how it affects me," the 49-year-old said. "If they force me to do any level of activity, I could end up bedridden - unable to speak and unable to chew food. "There are a lot of people with my condition who spend decades in bed just staring at a wall. It’s like living like you’re dead." Michelle said she had been out of work since 1997, when her condition worsened, but had lived in fear she would be declared fit and well. "The reason I’m in this power chair is because when I first got the illness, people didn’t believe someone who was 21 could be seriously ill like that and I was forced to over-exert," she said. "Since my disability developed, I felt like if I did any level of activity at all, I would be punished: I’d have my wheelchair taken off me, my benefits would be cut, and they would see it as an opportunity to declare me fit for work or say my illness isn’t real." Michelle added that as a result of this, she had spent her life "just existing". "It’s like a Department for Work and Pensions prison I’ve been living in because of my beliefs," she said. "I feel like I can’t work with them. I can’t trust them and I can’t be me without something horrible happening." Geoffrey Horner, from York, turned up for his appointment at the Jobcentre looking for help finding a job. The 57-year-old said he had been out of work since he was diagnosed with cancer, but was "getting better all the time". "They are absolutely nice people," he said of the staff. "I struggle with technology, medications and my memory - and they’ve all helped me very much. I have nothing but respect for them." Geoffrey said he hoped to find employment in horticulture, which he has done all his life. "But it depends whether my health lets me do that again," he said. "It would be full-time, maybe in a garden centre, but not as physical as it used to be." The government said its Get Britain Working white paper would boost the size of the British workforce with the "biggest employment reforms in a generation". York and North Yorkshire mayor David Skaith said the funding was a "great opportunity". "We’re incredibly excited and passionate to bring this trailblazer to York and North Yorkshire and help people get healthy and get back to work." The BBC has contacted the Department for Work and Pensions for comment. Listen to highlights from North Yorkshire on BBC Sounds , catch up with the latest episode of Look North or tell us a story you think we should be covering here .

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AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Cl A stock underperforms Monday when compared to competitors despite daily gainsCompany caught up in I-Med privacy scare plots US land grabThe co-founders of two of Canada's top artificial intelligence firms say companies in the country are buzzing with excitement around the technology but turning that enthusiasm into products and tools takes too long. Cohere co-founder Nick Frosst says he has grown used to being approached by Canadian firms wanting to work with AI but they're slow to actually implement the technology. Frosst says it is hard to pinpoint where that lack of urgency comes from but he thinks part of it is embedded in Canada's culture. Nicole Janssen, the co-founder of AltaML, has had a similar experience. She says it takes 18 months for companies reaching out to her business to commit to using AI and then another 18 months to start doing something with it. She says the danger in this long lead time is that people get tired of devoting energy and resources to projects that are not immediately giving them a return on their investment and then this work falls to the wayside.

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Cheap plastic from China and the United States is threatening Dutch companies that produce, process, and reuse plastic. Organizations from the sector are calling on the Cabinet to ensure more reused plastic is used, otherwise, job opportunities and sustainability will be endangered. The emergency call came from The Dutch Federation of the Rubber and Plastics Industry (NRK), Plastics Europe, Vereniging Afvalbedrijven (VA), and The Royal Association of the Dutch Chemical Industry (VNCI). Although plastic consumption is increasing, plastic production is decreasing, and many recycling companies are going bankrupt. The sustainability of the entire chain is at stake, they said. The Netherlands is the fourth largest producer of plastic in the European Union and is one of the leaders in collecting and recycling plastic waste. Cheap imported plastic is putting this position under pressure. Dutch reused plastic is currently too expensive to use as raw material for products. Cheap plastic, especially from the United States and China, is currently flooding the Dutch and European markets. The sector is close to investing billions of euros into new technologies to produce, sort, recycle, and process collected plastics. "We therefore want to recover much more plastic from waste than is currently available for reuse," the industry organizations stated. They have asked the Cabinet to revise their plastic policies in a joint petition. The current approach will further weaken the chain, they claim, with a possibility of a 40 percent shortage of Dutch manufacturers. The organizations are asking for an integrated approach, which would involve all the companies in the chain. According to industry organizations, the basis for a sustainable plastic chain lies in Europe and in European product policy. "We will not solve a global issue with more Dutch legislation. Cooperation in the chain and a well-developed European policy for this is crucial for a healthy, sustainable, and future-proof economy."Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown. Our preliminary policy read on the new U.S. administration is that positive growth effects will be minimal, inflation pressures will rise, and the Fed is likely to stop cutting rates earlier. This will lead to tighter financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and a more complicated macroeconomic picture elsewhere. Owing to a “wait and see” approach, our GDP growth forecasts have not moved much since the previous publication, other than incorporating changes related to base effects. Risks include the full implementation of the proposed U.S. agenda on taxes, trade, and immigration; the end of resilient consumer spending and labor demand; and bond market stress. AI is an upside. The global macroeconomic outlook is hostage to the policy implementation of the new U.S. administration. The recent macro pattern featuring an outperforming U.S. economy continues. But potentially large changes in fiscal, trade, and immigration policy from the U.S. are significant unknowns at this juncture. Specifically, it is unclear to what extent campaign promises will translate into policy, and when. Given the size of the U.S. economy, policy action on any of these fronts can move the global needle, affecting some economies more than others. For now, S&P Global Ratings has taken a probabilistic approach and is assuming partial implementation of U.S. campaign promises. Of course, to the extent that U.S. policy actions spill over to the rest of the world, other countries may respond in kind. We plan to update our forecasts, narratives, and risks as the picture becomes clearer. Recent Macro Pattern Continues While Markets Are Moving The recent pattern of real performance in the three largest economies is carrying on. The U.S. continues to outshine its peer group. GDP rose by 2.8% year on year in the third quarter (Q3), down fractionally from the second quarter (Q2), since services spending and labor demand remain strong. The eurozone economy continues its modest rebound from a borderline recession centered on Germany. GDP growth reached 1.6% quarter on quarter in Q3, also accompanied by strong services spending and labor demand. In China, growth is running below the official 5% target for the year, reflecting the ongoing effects of the property sector overhang. The policy response remains measured and consumer confidence and spending are still weak. Inflation continues to trend toward central bank targets in the major economies, but with emerging divergence. Progress in lowering inflation has stalled in the U.S., with the most recent readings for sequential inflation moving sideways. Services inflation in particular remains persistent. A similar story prevails in Australia and to a less extent in the U.K. Canada has seen the sharpest drop in inflation, which now stands below the central bank’s target. Elsewhere, the eurozone has seen an uptick in core inflation, which is currently tracking on target. Central banks continue to reduce their policy rates, mostly gradually. The Bank of Canada was first out of the gate and leads the pack with an accumulated 125 basis points (bps) of cuts since the middle of 2024. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have both cut rates by 75 bps to date, while the Bank of England has cut by 50 bps. The Reserve Bank of Australia is the outlier, with no cuts to date. As expected, central banks are lowering policy rates at a much slower pace than they raised them in 2022 and early 2023, with only two 50 bps cuts in this group so far. Markets have significantly increased expectations that the Fed will stop cutting rates versus only a few months ago. This is most clear in forward pricing for the October 2025 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Seen through this lens, market expectations for the Fed funds rate have moved higher by about 100 bps in the past two months to 3.9% from 2.9%. The movement reflects concerns over potential inflation pressures from tariffs, tax cuts, and restrictions on labor supply (as a consequence of immigration policy changes) that would require a forceful response from the Fed. Importantly, market views of policy rates for other major central banks have not shown this pattern. For example, the gap between the expected Fed funds rate and ECB deposit rate for October 2025 has more than doubled to over 200 bps in the past two months. Roughly in parallel with Fed funds rate expectations, U.S. 10-year yields have moved higher in recent months. From a trough of about 3.8% in September, yields have climbed to almost 4.5% in late November. In addition to higher inflation pressures, higher yields at the long end also reflect expectations about the supply of Treasuries. Supply is likely to be higher, given an estimated increase in the size of fiscal deficits under the Trump administration. Again, other major economies have not seen similar movements in their longer-term government yields. The yield on 10-year German bunds has been flat over the same period. The U.S. dollar rebounded before and after the election. This was in line with interest rate market moves and continued expected outperformance of the U.S. economy. According to the benchmark DXY index, the U.S. dollar has risen 7% since late September and is near levels last seen in the early 2000s. In bilateral terms against other major currencies, the moves since late September have been broadly consistent. Higher bond yields and a stronger currency both point to tighter financial conditions in the U.S., which have historically been a strong determinant of a slower expansion of output. Our Broadly Unchanged Forecasts Have Widening Confidence Bands Our new baseline growth forecasts are broadly in line with our previous quarterly Credit Conditions Committee (CCC) forecast (see table 1). U.S. GDP growth will slow gradually to 2% or below starting next year, consistent with a soft landing, before rising back to potential. The eurozone will continue its gradual recovery in 2025 to reach its potential growth rate. China’s growth will slow toward 4% as the U.S. tariffs weaken exports and investment. Elsewhere, the picture is mixed. In the advanced economies, Japan will rebound next year and settle at about 1% growth, with the U.K. following a similar pattern toward its trend growth of 1.5%. In the major emerging markets, India retains the global growth baton, where the rate of expansion should stay just below 7% over the next few years. Elsewhere in emerging markets, Brazil and Mexico should eventually converge to about 2% growth (with Mexico having a weaker 2025), while South Africa should pick up to about 1.5% growth in the next few years. United States: Uncertainty Looms As Trump Takes Office We forecast the economy will expand 2.0% in the next two years–incorporating a partial implementation of proposed Trump policies–following 2.7% GDP growth in 2024. We expect the Fed to reduce its policy rate more gradually than considered in our September forecast update and reach an assumed neutral rate of 3.1% by fourth-quarter 2026–from fourth-quarter 2025 previously. Uncertainty around our forecasts is high given unknowns about the extent President-elect Trump’s campaign promises will materialize. Trump’s policy proposals, at face value, could result in higher inflation in the near term and lower growth in the medium to long term. And the probability of a disruption to the Fed’s easing bias over the next two years has risen. Europe: Interest Rate Cuts To Accelerate We project eurozone GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, with Germany lagging its peers and Spain continuing to outperform. Changes to our previous forecast largely reflect revisions of past data. Due to a more pronounced drop in energy prices, we expect inflation will be marginally lower in 2025 than we anticipated. A long period of very stable macroeconomic forecasts might come to an end because new leaders in the U.S., EU, and Germany may take decisions early next year on tariffs, defense, and general spending that could reshape the economic outlook. We anticipate the ECB will cut interest rates more quickly than we previously expected due to persistently weak confidence and better visibility on the disinflation trajectory. That said, we do not expect the cuts will exceed our previous forecast. We now project that the main policy rate will reach 2.5% before summer {May?) 2025, compared with our previous expectation of September 2025. For our full report on the eurozone economy, see “Next Year Will Be A Game Changer,” published Nov. 26, 2024. Asia-Pacific: Slower Global Demand Hits Growth While China’s stimulus measures should support growth, we expect its economy to be hit by U.S. trade tariffs on its exports. In all, we now project 4.1% GDP growth in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026; that’s 0.2 percentage points (ppts) and 0.7 ppt lower than our forecast in September. Asia-Pacific’s growth will be impeded by slower global demand and U.S. trade policy. But lower interest rates and inflation should ease their drag on spending power. In emerging markets, robust domestic demand growth is also buoying GDP growth. Swings in capital flows driven by shifts in expectations about U.S. interest rates and trade policies require central banks to be vigilant and cautious. In turn, we expect Asia-Pacific central banks to take their time bringing policy rates down. For our full report on the Asia-Pacific economies, see “U.S. Trade Shift Blurs The Horizon,” published Nov. 25, 2024. Emerging Markets: Trade Protectionism Adds To Risks A likely increase in protectionist trade policies among major economies will hurt GDP growth in most emerging markets in the next couple of years. However, the magnitude of the effect will depend on the details, which will become clearer in the coming months. For now, we assume only a modest increase in tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China in 2025 and no new tariffs for the rest of the world, which would produce a relatively modest net impact on GDP in most major emerging markets outside China. However, downside risks to our forecast are high, and potential tightening in financial conditions because of trade-related uncertainty adds another hazard. For our full report on the emerging market economies, see “Trade Uncertainty Threatens Growth,” published Nov. 26, 2024. Risks Shift To Near-Team U.S. Policies The main risk to our baseline is the exact policy implementation of the incoming U.S. administration on tariffs, taxes, and immigration. In our current forecast round, we have assumed only partial implementation of campaign promises. Once the new administration takes office, actual policy implementation will become clearer. Let’s look at a scenario in which the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on all imports from China plus new tariffs on other trading partners, cuts personal and corporate taxes, and deports millions of illegal immigrants. If that happens, we anticipate lower U.S. output, higher inflation pressures, and increased volatility and rates along the yield curve. These effects will spill over to other economies–very asymmetrically–in terms of activity, trade, and key financial variables. The durability of the nexus of strong services spending and labor demand also constitutes another downside risk. While in our baseline scenario we assume continued resilience, services spending could begin to crack, given still-high interest rates and rising uncertainty about U.S. policy. Should services spending slow and labor demand begin to fall, we would likely enter into a sharp slowdown/recession scenario. Another downside risk is the end of quiescence in the U.S. bond market. While 10-year yields rose before and after the election, the market has so far remained orderly. Stress in the bond market cannot be ruled out, given that deficits under the Trump administration are projected by the U.S. government as being higher than under a Harris administration, plus the uncertainties discussed above. A failed auction or a spike in yields could lead to higher volatility and spreads, closed access for parts of the market, and tighter financial conditions. On the upside, recent productivity gains in the U.S. could broaden and deepen. These gains have come from investments and new technologies around the energy transition, as well as AI, and have boosted potential growth by 40 bps-50 bps. While energy transition gains might be limited elsewhere, given the specific characteristics (subsidies) of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, AI capabilities are more widespread and only at a very early stage. This could boost productivity across a range of economies. Global Macro 2025: Fasten Your Seatbelts The global economy will start 2025 in a relatively good position. Macro resilience has been a key theme over the past few years. Higher interest rates in response to an unexpectedly sharp rise in post-pandemic inflation have not caused the sharp slowdown feared by most forecasters. Services spending has remained strong and labor demand robust. Losses in output and employment have been modest. Asset prices have risen and volatility has been low. Central banks are now cutting interest rates and a normally elusive soft landing appears within reach and remains our baseline scenario. Central to this positive global macro story has been the U.S. The world’s largest economy has continued to outperform and steady the global macro picture. That could be about to change. The new administration looks to “juice up” an economy that is already running at or above potential, raising the specter of higher inflation pressure, higher U.S. rates along the curve, and a stronger dollar. This tightens U.S. financial conditions and will spill over to a swathe of other economies, mainly emerging markets. More critically, U.S. trade policy could turn much more disruptive if implemented along the lines promised in the campaign. As we have shown in “How Would China Fare Under 60% U.S. Tariffs?,” published Nov. 17, 2024, maximum U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could significantly damage that economy. And, like before, China is almost sure to retaliate. Tariffs on other trading partners are likely to cause commensurate damage to their economies, with the risk of retaliation as well. On balance, we think tariffs will be growth destroying and further contribute to ongoing economic (and political) fragmentation. Moreover, none of this will help narrow the U.S. trade and current account deficit, which reflects a lack of U.S. savings relative to investment. How much of the proposed policy agenda was campaign bluster versus actual intent remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: volatility will be a feature, not a bug. Buckle up. Source:If I were President Joe Biden, I would have done the same thing. I would have pardoned a son who faced possible federal prison time — not because of the crimes he committed but because of me. The president’s decision to absolve his son Hunter reneges on a campaign promise and can certainly be described as hypocritical. It creates a political problem for the Democratic Party and will be seen by many as a stain on Biden’s legacy. Obviously, Biden is prepared to accept those consequences. I would be, too. In his statement, Biden got to the heart of things “No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son — and that is wrong.” This is clearly true. If a son of mine were being subjected to selective prosecution, and I had the power to make it all go away, that’s what I would do. This isn’t about lying on a gun permit form or delinquency in paying taxes, which are the crimes Hunter has admitted committing. It’s about fatherhood. The word “troubled” appears in almost anything written about Hunter. Joe Biden watched his second son recover from injuries suffered in a 1972 automobile accident that killed Hunter’s mother and sister, fractured Hunter’s skull and injured his older brother, Beau. The president, then a senator, took pride in Hunter’s early promise. Hunter graduated from Yale Law School, then embarked on a career in finance. But over the years, Joe Biden also witnessed Hunter’s restlessness as he briefly went into government, then complicated his father’s life by becoming a lobbyist, then went back into finance. And the elder Biden watched Hunter try to live up to the impossibly high standard set by Beau: Syracuse University Law School, a Justice Department career, experience as a federal prosecutor, election to two terms as attorney general of Delaware and concurrent service in the Delaware Army National Guard, which included a 2008 combat deployment in Iraq. Many people predicted Beau would be president someday. No one predicted the same about Hunter. Then, in 2013, Beau was diagnosed with a deadly form of brain cancer. As Joe Biden watched his older son struggle with his illness, he watched his younger son struggle with his own demons — and could do nothing to help either. By the time Beau died nine years ago, Hunter’s life was a mess. He was deep in the throes of addiction to cocaine and alcohol. The most telling episode came in 2013, when, at age 42, he emulated Beau by joining the Navy Reserve. He was sworn in by his father, then vice president, at the White House — and then discharged when a urine test detected the presence of cocaine. Hunter was making money — often trading on his father’s name — but spending it like a fire hose on drugs and an extravagant lifestyle. His personal relationships were chaotic, toxic and sordid. And his father was helpless to save him. We all know what happened next. When Donald Trump became president in 2016, and it became clear that Joe Biden could be his opponent in 2020, Republicans launched a campaign to destroy Biden politically through his association with his surviving son. A Justice Department special prosecutor and an endless congressional investigation produced clouds of smoke, at the heart of which was no fire: No evidence showed Joe Biden acted as senator or vice president to benefit Hunter’s interests. The only money Republicans ever proved Joe Biden accepted from Hunter was $4,140 in repayment for a car that Hunter didn’t qualify to purchase because of his low credit rating. Hunter did commit crimes, though, to which he has pleaded guilty in federal court. But his were not the kinds of crimes that usually get prosecuted. He was given this harsh treatment because he is Joe Biden’s son. He might not have been sentenced to prison time. But with Trump returning to the White House and pledging to punish his political enemies, he faced new peril. It was not inconceivable that Trump would find an attorney general willing to conjure the smoke surrounding Hunter’s dealings with the Ukrainian firm Burisma — already dispelled by years of fruitless investigation — into some kind of new criminal indictment. When Joe Biden promised not to pardon Hunter, he thought he’d never have to. Things have changed. I can’t argue that pardoning Hunter was politically the right thing to do. I’m not even sure it was morally the right thing to do. But if my son were in Hunter’s position and I had the power to save him and give him a fresh start, I’d do it. I believe many fathers would agree. Robinson writes for The Washington Post. Get local news delivered to your inbox!


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