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2025-01-12
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump’s Republicans are promising to hit the gas next year when they assume full control of the US Congress, with little to stop them from executing the president-elect’s promises to slash taxes and reorder the global trade landscape. But the $28 trillion Treasury debt market is flashing a red warning light against adding excessively to a debt load already expanding at a pace of $2 trillion a year. What is yet to be seen is whether these concerns will be enough to slow Republican lawmakers’ ambitions or push them to find offsetting savings on a tax break agenda estimated to cost nearly $8 trillion over 10 years. Markets are betting that Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs will fuel inflation as investors demand stronger returns on longer-term Treasuries. Yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note have risen to 4.4 percent, up about 75 basis points since “Trump trades” began dominating Wall Street in late September. That trend is driving higher interest rates for mortgages, car loans and credit card debt, counteracting Federal Reserve rate cuts and potentially putting US growth at risk. It is also raising the cost of financing US deficits and eating up the federal budget. Interest on the public debt topped $1 trillion for the first time during the fiscal year ended Sept 30, making it the second-largest single expenditure after the Social Security retirement program. “In a weird way, the bond market is now on the verge of running this country,” said Republican Representative David Schweikert, who sits on the House of Representatives’ tax- and trade-focused Ways and Means Committee. The market signals mean there are no “blank checks” for Congress and the tax cuts will need to be paired with spending cuts, he said in an interview. “It is a hurdle in the financing of the US government.” Managing that hurdle will fall to Trump’s pick to lead the Treasury Department, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. Bessent has argued that Trump’s economic agenda will unleash stronger economic growth that will in turn drive up revenue and boost market confidence. His appointment could also reduce the chance of severe tariffs. The budget math is daunting. Trump has promised to extend the tax cuts passed in 2017, during his first term in the White House, for individuals and small businesses that are due to expire next year, which tax experts say will add $4 trillion to the current $36 trillion in total US debt over 10 years. That’s on top of debt already forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to grow by $22 trillion over the same period, based on current laws. Trump also promised voters generous new tax breaks, including ending taxes on Social Security, overtime and tip income and restoring deductions for car loan interest. The tab is likely to reach $7.75 trillion above the CBO baseline over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan fiscal watchdog group. Concern over the bond market’s influence on Trump’s agenda is more the exception than the rule among congressional Republicans interviewed some two weeks after he won the Nov 5 presidential election and his party took control of Congress. Some fell back on the party’s long-held view that tax cuts can pay for themselves with stronger growth - a line that was used to sell Trump’s original 2017 tax cuts. Budget forecasters including the Joint Committee on Taxation have estimated that those cuts added more than $1 trillion to deficits over 10 years. An analysis of economic feedback on extending the tax cuts by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that increased growth would only offset 1 percent to 14 percent of the revenues lost directly by the cuts, leaving the bulk to be financed through borrowing. Still, Republican Senator Mike Rounds said he believed the stability and growth that will come from extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts will allay some market concerns. “What we have to do is show them that we’re going to build an economy so that the ratio between the size of the economy and the debt changes positively in our favor,” Rounds said. Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington said accelerating economic growth to more than 3 percent annually - it’s already on that pace for the third quarter - would increase revenues by $3 trillion over a decade, but that additional spending cuts would be needed. Rising bond market yields were “a motivating factor to rein in deficit spending,” he said. Arrington and fellow Republican Representative Joe Wilson said they were hopeful the non-government panel led by billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would be able to find ways to cut the budget, including on “mandatory spending” programs other than Social Security and the Medicare health insurance program for the elderly, which Trump has vowed to preserve. “With Elon Musk I think we have a real opportunity to actually identify waste and cut things that can be cut,” Wilson said. A key target is rescinding Democratic President Joe Biden’s clean energy subsidies, estimated by the CBO to cost nearly $800 billion over 10 years, and some $60 billion in funds to modernize the Internal Revenue Service, although that would expand deficits in the long run by curbing audits. Republicans in the new year will likely rely on budget procedures that bypass Senate rules requiring 60 of the 100 members in the chamber to agree on most legislation to pass Trump’s tax agenda with a simple majority. Republican Senator Mike Crapo, the incoming chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said it was too early to determine which tax policies would be included in initial legislation, adding that there was market “misinterpretation of what Trump is doing or going to do.” “A lot of people are saying, well, which tax policies are you going to do?” Crapo said. “And the answer to that is, the ones that we figure out are the right ones.” Former President Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville famously said in 1993 that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market, because “you can intimidate everybody.” If Congress’ moves signal too big of a deficit hike, some market analysts are concerned that excess debt issuance will cause market indigestion that drives up yields sharply. “One can’t exclude the risk that trust in US economic policymaking might be lost, the bond vigilantes could come out in full force and pressure rates significantly higher, and the US and global economies could be badly shaken,” said Mark Sobel, a former US Treasury official who is now the US chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a think tank. Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager for Manulife Investment Management, said Congress and Trump’s administration will likely adjust course based on market reactions. “They will react to incoming feedback as it comes,” Thooft said. “Dollar gets too strong, they’re probably going to back away a little bit. Equity markets act up too much, they might back away a little bit. They care about these things.” — ReutersLiving a plant-based lifestyle is all fun and games until you're stuck trying to froth up some oat or almond milk. Various plant milks just don't react to certain processes in the same ways as dairy milk does. Frothing, for example, has been the topic of many Reddit discussions over the years, with folks landing on as one of the best to get a good foam going. We've managed to stumble upon a trick that should help you create the perfect froth, olive oil. Cooking With Elo, a YouTuber who loves sharing little cooking hacks posted this trick and the proof shows in her cup at the end. Literally the smallest bit of olive oil can make a huge difference in the frothing texture. All you have to do is warm up the plant milk (virtually any brand) and add a tiny bit of olive oil before frothing. As long as your , you're able to froth the perfect foam for your coffee. Acting as an emulsifier, olive oil can mix with the ingredients of plant-based milk in a way that allows everything to mix without separating. How it works Emulsification can be defined as the process of mixing oily and watery liquids, forcing them to blend together where they normally wouldn't by using a tool of some sort. One well known example of this process is mayonnaise, where the egg yolk serves as the emulsifier. Without the egg's protein used to thicken the mixture, mayonnaise would likely look like oil with bits of liquid stirred in. Olive oil can work with oat milk, coconut milk, and other plant-based versions of milk to prevent that clumpy texture we (those of us with plant-based diets) have had to deal with. Instead of going through the trial-and-error process of finding the or trying to , stick to the brand that you love the most and add the tiniest drop of olive oil before frothing for a delicious and silky result. Recommendedhaha777 download ios

Trump caught in another Musk fight – this time on immigration

Two MIT professors, an alumnus, and a former postdoc are among the winners of 2024’s Nobel Prizes. Professors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, PhD ’89, shared the prize in economics with political scientist James Robinson of the University of Chicago, with whom they have long collaborated. Using evidence from the last 500 years, their work has empirically demonstrated that “inclusive” governments such as democracies, which extend individual rights and political liberties while upholding the rule of law, have generated greater economic activity than “extractive” political systems, where power is wielded by a small elite. Partly because economic growth depends on technological innovation, it is best sustained when countries protect property rights, giving more people the incentive to invent things. Acemoglu, an Institute Professor, has been a member of the MIT faculty since 1993. Johnson, the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, was chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2007 to 2008. Meanwhile, Victor Ambros ’75, PhD ’79, a professor at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, and Gary Ruvkun, a professor at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital, shared the prize in medicine for their discovery of microRNA, a class of tiny RNA molecules that help govern gene regulation. This crucial mechanism allows cells with the same chromosomes to develop into cell types with different characteristics and functions. The foundation for their discoveries was laid by their work on mutant forms of the roundworm as MIT postdocs in the of Professor H. Robert Horvitz (who would win a Nobel in 2002). Later, working independently, they showed that a certain roundworm gene produces a very short RNA molecule that binds to messenger RNA encoding a different gene and blocks it from being translated into protein. Since then, more than 1,000 microRNA genes have been found in humans. In an , Ambros also credited the contributions of collaborators including his wife, , and postdoc Rhonda Feinbaum.The Battle Rages On, Will Printed Books or E-Readers Win the Hearts of Readers?One suspects that there are those whose favourite sporting indulgence is to launch little social media grenades before standing back to admire their handiwork. A million impressions! 700,000 likes! Once the currency of the geeky in-your-folks’-basement-keyboard-warrior, it has become a more mainstream means of satisfaction to a certain demographic. It would be remiss, though, to suggest the age group appeals to those who are barely of legal age to drink. Last week Roger Mitchell, the former SPL chief – the one who recommended that the league knock back a Sky Sports broadcasting deal in 2002 – detonated one of those social media bombs with a tweet about women’s football that promptly blew up. As England internationalist Lucy Bronze suggested that 99.9% of women’s players will have to work when they finish playing rather than live off their earnings, Mitchell was very keen to offer his thoughts. ‘The entitlement of women’s football is totally off the scale,’ he wrote. ‘They arrived yesterday. They have no real audience. And yet...World class male players of the 80s didn’t get “for life” wages. Stars in the 60s needed a testimonial to maybe buy a pub and work another 35 years.’ The point that Bronze was making, and entirely lost here, was that the position of women’s football is a million miles off of its male equivalent. Her observation was simply this; it is unlikely that any current player in the England team will have any financial worries when the time comes to hang up their boots. Indeed, there will be bang-average Championship and League One players in England who need never dirty their hands when they finish playing. This is not entitlement to discuss this. This is a question and not exclusive to sport, stained deep within the culture of our time, about creating genuine pathways to equality. If no-one talks about it and puzzles over how to offer means of correcting it, how can it ever change? Pointing out the differentials is not entitlement. And the reason why women’s football ‘arrived yesterday?’ Well, that’s an easy one. It was banned. It was not allowed. Growth was prohibited when the game was shut down with no oxygen to move and morph the way the men’s game did. Historically the women’s game attracted significant numbers at times before facilities were removed. It is impossible to know how things would have played out had those decisions by the old gatekeepers not been taken. But these are the new gatekeepers of the women’s game. The ones who have an opinion – and there is nothing quite so entrenched as a middle-aged man with an opinion – who has decided that the world must hear it. As Mitchell’s tweet attracted significant traction – surprise, surprise – the patronising rhetoric which followed offered some wry amusement. “There is a very large portion of the fan base of the male game who has deep resentment for how the female game has been 'forced' upon them. “I’d pay attention to that.” Quite what we are all paying deep attention to is an interesting question. Who is forcing the women’s game on anyone? Watch if you will, turn off if you will. Go to a game or consider it not for you. Both choices are fine. But it is here and it has a right to be here. It also has a right to wish to grow and market itself properly and attract commercial entities which will facilitate that. It has a right for players and chief execs and coaches to ask the questions about how it becomes more professional and how it attracts a bigger audience. AND ANOTHER THING Brian Graham has made it clear that he would be keen to be considered for the Scotland job following the exit of Pedro Martinez Losa. Graham currently juggles the duel demands of Partick Thistle striker for Kris Doolan’s side along with managing the women’s side. Twice he took them into the top six while also taking the to the League Cup final last year. By his own admission, the ceiling has been reached with the women’s team given the current lack of resources available. Erin Cuthbert suggested some months ago that tapping into some traditional Scottish qualities would enhance the national team and it is interesting to see if a homegrown route is pursued for this reason. Leanne Ross should also fancy that she should be in the running for the role. Having assisted Martinez Losa she knows the landscape of the national team while her own body of work would speak for itself. Glasgow City are currently leading the charge for this season’s title having had to regroup and rebuild this summer. Both candidates would offer something to Scotland – although both would also need to get a move on with their pro-license. AND FINALLY The SWPL is on a break for a couple of weeks to allow players to recharge. If the game is to grow and develop then a break makes absolute sense. It doesn’t help to have players who are mentally and physically fatigued – many of whom juggle working commitments with their football – working through a hectic schedule. The men’s game will miss its break this year as it accommodates the growing demands of international and domestic football and there is no question that it has an impact on performance levels. The women’s game will be all the better for a brief break.Biden officials, Republicans point fingers over exhausted disaster loans program

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